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I didn't know anything was happening until I saw the esoteric post from Toe-Crixius.
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If you believe the futures, more sales tomorrow. We’ll see. I was scheduled to put some money into the market today but my newborn ended up distracting me until after market close–whoops.
Babies are so much more interesting than the stock/bond/commodities/realty market, aren't they?Comment
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If you believe the futures, more sales tomorrow. We’ll see. I was scheduled to put some money into the market today but my newborn ended up distracting me until after market close–whoops.
Babies are so much more interesting than the stock/bond/commodities/realty market, aren’t they?
No doubt!Comment
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No worries folks. Apparently says he promises not to start any wars, whew!Comment
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I didn’t know anything was happening until I saw the esoteric post from Toe-Crixius.
Am I missing something? Perspective people.Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011Comment
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Series of lower highs as the Fed aggressively raises rates and the yield curve flattens while the consumer is starting to roll over, maybe. Anything could happen. Wouldn't rule out a recession and from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.Comment
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from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.
Fixed that for you.Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011Comment
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Again I think this just comes down to whether or not you think that everything is normal or not right now.
Thing is, if I'm right everyone will tell me I got lucky and ************************, they might be right. :lol:Comment
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from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.
Fixed that for you.
What does this mean, you do not believe valuation matters?Comment
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We should delete this thread. There's a little Crixus in a lot of us.Comment
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It means no matter what you should know its always a possibility and expect it. Why does the reasoning matter? If you worry about causes you have a bunch of excuses to assure yourself it wont happen becuase x, y, and z conditions arent met, etc....other than just knowing it can and just does happen. Better mind state.Comment
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We should delete this thread. There’s a little Crixus in a lot of us.
Nah, its important to realize otherwise when these moments come you'll be shocked at how it hits you.Comment
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from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.
Fixed that for you.
What does this mean, you do not believe valuation matters?
Of course it matters (although I really don't think it's particularly helpful to adjust your asset allocation in order to reduce risk or boost returns.) But the point is that a 50% market decline is always a possibility, no matter what valuations are.Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011Comment
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from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.
Fixed that for you.
What does this mean, you do not believe valuation matters?
Bogleheads are price insensitive. They see a nominal price chart of the last 40 years & believe on a long enough timeline they’ll be bailed out, blissfully unaware of the forces behind such a chart. They believe in the magic money machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO7TnZvKuy4
Yes. Far better to believe in conspiracy theories that lead one to hold a portfolio consisting mostly of gold miner stocks and precious metals, because the magic metal will bail us out.Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011Comment
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from these valuations, a 50% market decline is always a possibility.
Fixed that for you.
What does this mean, you do not believe valuation matters?
Bogleheads are price insensitive. They see a nominal price chart of the last 40 years & believe on a long enough timeline they’ll be bailed out, blissfully unaware of the forces behind such a chart. They believe in the magic money machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO7TnZvKuy4
Yes. Far better to believe in conspiracy theories that lead one to hold a portfolio consisting mostly of gold miner stocks and precious metals, because the magic metal will bail us out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSyGpO5zpO8
“If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it” – Ray Dalio
Long as we're quoting experts, I prefer Bernstein to Dalio:
As you might suspect, there’s a price to be paid. You think that value and small-stock exposures were a tough row to hoe in the 90s? Have Japanese stocks given you fits for the past 15 years? You ain’t seen nothin’: since 1963, the precious metals equity (PME) series has lost more than 35% five different times and, on one occasion, nearly 70%. Between October 1980 and August 1998, it lost a total of 53.8%, or 4.2% annualized—a 7.7% annualized loss after inflation. For the more than 24 years between October 1980 and December 2004, the real return of PME was –0.3%.
That’s nearly a quarter century of zero real returns, pilgrims. How hard was it hard to keep the faith? To quote Klaus von Bulow, You’ve No Idea. What with central banks divesting themselves of their reserves, the permanent demise of inflation, and the dwindling industrial usefulness of the metal, some very smart people went on record that this particular hard asset was as welcome in your portfolio as Hillary Clinton on the op-ed page of The Wall Street Journal.
Not that I’m a gold bug. Far from it; anyone who rebalances this asset class (and, dare I say it, overbalances it) is actually an anti-gold bug, hibernating when these little creatures are most frenzied, and coming out to prowl only when interest has waned.
What percentage of investors has the discipline to stay the course with an asset capable of withering away for an entire generation before reverting to its mean? (If indeed the past 41.5 years have given us a realistic picture of its mean.) I wouldn’t even venture a guess, but I’m pretty sure that the answer is not too far above zero.
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/adhoc/gold.htm
Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011Comment
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