I congratulate the forum

[Hatton]

I was expecting to read some tearful panicky posts last night or today.  So far everyone is calm.  Hopefully this a just a correction and not a bear market. Time will tell us.  Stay the course and good luck!

[VagabondMD]

The S&P 500 is still up 3.44% this year. No reason to jump out of windows yet (unless they are on the first/ground floor, and the house is on fire).

[ENT Doc]

I've been too busy liquidating everything to post anything until now. The end is nigh!

[Antares]

Zzzz

[ticker]

I nearly commented yesterday on the uniqueness of an investing forum in which no one comments on a 600 point drop in the DJIA.  But, to comment on the absence would have negated it, so I abstained.

Anyway, I agree.  The level-headedness around here shames me.

[CM]

Vagabond MD wrote:

The S&P 500 is still up 3.44% this year.

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... and 312% between February 2009 and February 2018. (https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/)

The PE10 is about 33.4, so the S&P 500 would have to fall about 50% to get within horseshoes and hand grenades of its long-term average valuation.

Much worse outcomes are possible -- and have occurred with some regularity throughout financial history, so if you can't view a 50% drop with equanimity, then I strongly advise you to sell now and count your blessings.

[Dr. Mom]

Noise.

[ENT Doc]

I'm not sure the long term average is a valid metric, as the trend line has been a positive slope since the start of CAPE. To put this in perspective, the CAPE was near the long run average at its depths in 2009, not markedly below it.

[Zaphod]

I hope it continues a couple more percent, we need a slow down/consolidation.

[Antares]

Zaphod wrote:

I hope it continues a couple more percent, we need a slow down/consolidation.

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Agree. This is probably healthy for the market. But, it ought to be said, who knows?

[hightower]

I feel somewhat guilty saying this because I know that there are many retired/near-retired folks on here, but I'm cheering for a big correction/bear market.  I'm 36 y/o and I need to "stock" up on shares at a fair price.  I remember when I first started coming to this forum shares of VTI (Vanguard total stock mkt etf) were trading at around $109/share...as of friday they were still at $141.  So, I'm not really getting excited just yet.  But, if we hit a major downturn and prices really plummet, I might temporarily hold off on paying off the rest of my low interest student loans and start buying shares in the taxable account.

Anyway, I have a feeling the last couple of days of trading will not amount to anything major.  We'll probably see a rebound on Monday.  It will be fun to watch though.

 

[wideopenspaces]

If I hadn't clicked on this thread I wouldn't have a clue what was going on. I only check our investment accounts once a year, Dec 31, to update my spreadsheet to calculate net worth. So I've got 11 months to go before I check again.

[Lithium]

I'm only "hoping" for a bear market so that the price of some ETF's I have that track Russell indexes will drop below the cost basis and I can exchange them for something better.  But most of them would have to drop at least 35% for that to happen, so I assume I'm stuck with them indefinitely.

[ticker]

thevaluedoc wrote:

Seriously, we are congratulating this forum for not freaking out about a 4% decline over the last week and a 2% decline on Friday? I wouldn’t be surprised next Monday afternoon with a bounce and eventually  over the next few weeks another higher high.

IMHO, if people are congratulating themselves for not reacting to a 4% decline,  I am definitely interested to see how this forum reacts if/when the real top is reached. And, I wouldn’t be surprise that after that if/when day happens, people will know.

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Point taken.  I'm not at all surprised that people didn't sell everything, buy gold, and beg Crixus for directions to his bunker.

I was a little surprised that the worst single DJIA day and week in a couple years didn't even get a mention on the forum, this being an investing forum, and all.

I actually had a hearty laugh yesterday.  After waiting 6 months to be eligible to contribute to my new 401k, I was finally eligible this week.  You guessed it- my paycheck (with ~$10k 401k contribution to 100% stocks) went through Thursday.

[CM]

ticker wrote:

You guessed it- my paycheck (with ~$10k 401k contribution to 100% stocks) went through Thursday.

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Ticker: If you contributed $10K with one paycheck you may be planning to front load the maximum allowable contribution, so just a word of caution:

I did that with a past employer and then missed out on the 7% company match for the rest of the year. The company only paid the match per paycheck, so when I maxed out my allowable 401K deduction and had no further contributions on future paychecks, there was nothing for the company to match.

Many companies do this. If you haven't checked your company's policy you might want to call HR before your next paycheck comes through.