Help me with the Math - Senate Tax Bill - Individual Mandate

[StarTrekDoc]

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How's that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

 

 

[willpmd]

you sound open minded and receptive to opinions that differ from your own, an excellent state of mind to start a political discussion on a physician finance forum...

good luck!

[StarTrekDoc]

I really want to stay away from the merits or lack of both the tax reform and healthcare.

I do want to know how the nonpartisan CBO came to a conclusion of savings with the individual mandate repeal.

 

[childay]

By discouraging people from signing up for "obamacare" the government saves money by not subsidizing those people's premiums.

Certainly that will lead to increasing premiums on those who do sign up or already have.  That is in fact perhaps the main failure of Obamacare in that the individual mandate did not work well enough leading to higher premiums/costs than expected.  From a political standpoint Republicans are all too happy to see the premiums go up, the plans get cancelled, obamacare "trainwreck" etc.  Even if they are in fact making that worse, few people will understand such details.

[RetiredERdoc]

The combination of increasing the number of people without health insurance plus eliminating the deductibility of medical expenses makes me wonder if these guys are just evil.

[hightower]

RetiredERdoc wrote:

The combination of increasing the number of people without health insurance plus eliminating the deductibility of medical expenses makes me wonder if these guys are just evil.

Click to expand...

Not evil, though it certainly seems like it.  The politicians are just puppets for their wealthy donors.  So, I don't blame them per se.  Their donors though are made of pure greed and selfishness.  Imagine if you were a billionaire...you wouldn't need any health insurance right?  You'd easily be able to set aside 20 million or so in a special account and say "that's my health insurance which will easily cover any health care needs I or my family has."  On top of that, if you were also selfish and/or greedy, you'd also be against paying for anyone else's healthcare needs through taxes because you want to keep every cent for yourself.  So, you donate millions and millions of dollars to specific politicians, political action committees, etc. to make sure that the laws are changed and it's every man for himself when it comes to health care.

It's a free country so if those billionaires want to do that, they have the right.  I personally don't share their beliefs.  I think we as a nation can easily afford to come together, pay our fair share in taxes and provide everyone with some basic level of health insurance.  I personally don't want to live in a country where people go bankrupt when they get sick or can't afford their health insurance premiums because we're giving giant tax breaks to corporations and billionaires.  That seems un-American to me.  It seems rather cruel really.  I'm optimistic that the behavior of this current administration will wake people up and force them to start paying attention to politics.  Maybe the other half of our population that didn't bother to vote in the last election will get motivated to show up at the polls next time?  I can only hope.

[hightower]

StarTrekDoc wrote:

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How’s that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

Click to expand...

Absolutely the intention of this is to make the ACA fail.  The current administration is absolutely determined to completely undo everything the prior administration did at all costs and with no care in the world as to who or what it may hurt in the process.  It doesn't matter what Obama was for, they are against it.  If Obama had sent a puppy to an orphanage so the children could have a pet, Trump would try to have the puppy euthanized.  That's how much they want to undo everything he did.

I don't think there's any point in trying to make sense of their goals beyond that.

[The White Coat Investor]

hightower wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How’s that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

Click to expand…

Absolutely the intention of this is to make the ACA fail.  The current administration is absolutely determined to completely undo everything the prior administration did at all costs and with no care in the world as to who or what it may hurt in the process.  It doesn’t matter what Obama was for, they are against it.  If Obama had sent a puppy to an orphanage so the children could have a pet, Trump would try to have the puppy euthanized.  That’s how much they want to undo everything he did.

I don’t think there’s any point in trying to make sense of their goals beyond that.

Click to expand...

Is it hard to go through life with that level of cynicism? I mean, that's 20 year ER nurse kind of cynicism.

I wonder if our society would be better if we didn't attribute the worst possible motive every time to our political "opponents." (It would be even better if we all realized we were on the same teams- Americans, Humanity etc)

[hightower]

The White Coat Investor wrote:

hightower wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How’s that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

Click to expand…

Absolutely the intention of this is to make the ACA fail.  The current administration is absolutely determined to completely undo everything the prior administration did at all costs and with no care in the world as to who or what it may hurt in the process.  It doesn’t matter what Obama was for, they are against it.  If Obama had sent a puppy to an orphanage so the children could have a pet, Trump would try to have the puppy euthanized.  That’s how much they want to undo everything he did.

I don’t think there’s any point in trying to make sense of their goals beyond that.

Click to expand…

Is it hard to go through life with that level of cynicism? I mean, that’s 20 year ER nurse kind of cynicism.

I wonder if our society would be better if we didn’t attribute the worst possible motive every time to our political “opponents.” (It would be even better if we all realized we were on the same teams- Americans, Humanity etc)

Click to expand...

Do I have a tendency to be overly cynical...yes, unfortunately I learned it from my father who is 1000x worse and I consider it a curse that I'm trying to shake.  And yes, it does some times make it hard to get through life.

But, come on, do you really think these guys don't have some f'd up motives?  I'd LOVE to think that they are just doing their best and trying to help everyone, but what evidence do we have for that?

[Zaphod]

The White Coat Investor wrote:

hightower wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How’s that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

Click to expand…

Absolutely the intention of this is to make the ACA fail.  The current administration is absolutely determined to completely undo everything the prior administration did at all costs and with no care in the world as to who or what it may hurt in the process.  It doesn’t matter what Obama was for, they are against it.  If Obama had sent a puppy to an orphanage so the children could have a pet, Trump would try to have the puppy euthanized.  That’s how much they want to undo everything he did.

I don’t think there’s any point in trying to make sense of their goals beyond that.

Click to expand…

Is it hard to go through life with that level of cynicism? I mean, that’s 20 year ER nurse kind of cynicism.

I wonder if our society would be better if we didn’t attribute the worst possible motive every time to our political “opponents.” (It would be even better if we all realized we were on the same teams- Americans, Humanity etc)

Click to expand...

Thats fine for citizens and should be the norm. Its incredibly naive for actual politicians. If I've learned anything the older and higher up I go is that not only are the 'rumors' about its who you know, quid pro quo, etc...true, they are far worse than you hope. Just look at the hollywood stuff now. Who didnt grow up with pop culture knowledge of sleeping with the director, etc...and its much much worse than we'd like to believe.

Follow the money, it really is that simple to see why things happen. I mean why else are all the simple normal deductions taken away and new ones for private jets put into the law? That applies to who? Now who put that in there? Someone with access and a bankroll put the bug into their politicians ear, simple. I prefer skepticism to cynicism.

[FIREshrink]

The White Coat Investor wrote:

hightower wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

So Senate adds in the repeal of the Individual Mandate because somehow, by requiring less people on the exchange costs less.

So by NOT forcing the young healthy to buy insurance, the government saves money?  How’s that argument help where they said the young healthy are needed to balance the premiums?

This is the whole reason why they wanted to tackle the Health Reform; to get all those savings to use on the Tax Reform bill instead of hitting that 1.5 Trillion marker.   It looks like some serious math wizardry with the individual mandate repeal.

Any CBO experts here?

Click to expand…

Absolutely the intention of this is to make the ACA fail.  The current administration is absolutely determined to completely undo everything the prior administration did at all costs and with no care in the world as to who or what it may hurt in the process.  It doesn’t matter what Obama was for, they are against it.  If Obama had sent a puppy to an orphanage so the children could have a pet, Trump would try to have the puppy euthanized.  That’s how much they want to undo everything he did.

I don’t think there’s any point in trying to make sense of their goals beyond that.

Click to expand…

Is it hard to go through life with that level of cynicism? I mean, that’s 20 year ER nurse kind of cynicism.

I wonder if our society would be better if we didn’t attribute the worst possible motive every time to our political “opponents.” (It would be even better if we all realized we were on the same teams- Americans, Humanity etc)

Click to expand...

Which is worse, cynicism or naiveté? I’ll have to chew on that one.

[Rando]

StarTrekDoc wrote:

I really want to stay away from the merits or lack of both the tax reform and healthcare.

I do want to know how the nonpartisan CBO came to a conclusion of savings with the individual mandate repeal.

 

Click to expand...

I think it's already been answered but basically the CBO felt 16 million would drop out of the market without a mandate, and since most of those would have received a government subsidy that will save the government money.

 

Now my editorial comment - I don't think this will have much effect one way or the other since the mandate was never really a mandate.  I have several patients that elect to stay uninsured because the premiums in the individual markets are ridiculously high.  I give them large discounts on the office visits and try to use generics as much as possible.  In my mind it is unethical for the government to mandate people buy insurance that is bad and they can't afford, and that's where the individual markets are at.

 

 

[Zaphod]

Rando wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

I really want to stay away from the merits or lack of both the tax reform and healthcare.

I do want to know how the nonpartisan CBO came to a conclusion of savings with the individual mandate repeal.

 

Click to expand…

I think it’s already been answered but basically the CBO felt 16 million would drop out of the market without a mandate, and since most of those would have received a government subsidy that will save the government money.

 

Now my editorial comment – I don’t think this will have much effect one way or the other since the mandate was never really a mandate.  I have several patients that elect to stay uninsured because the premiums in the individual markets are ridiculously high.  I give them large discounts on the office visits and try to use generics as much as possible.  In my mind it is unethical for the government to mandate people buy insurance that is bad and they can’t afford, and that’s where the individual markets are at.

 

 

Click to expand...

totally agree, accounting shenanigans.

[TheGipper]

CBO is both partisan and a bunch of idiots. I mean their ACA repeal projections assumed that tens of millions would voluntarily drop “free” Medicaid coverage.

Every major projection they have made has been WAY off. In their defense, 10 year out projections using modeled dynamic (or static) scoring is nearly impossible.

There is no way that their best guesses should be used to determine if a bill needs 50 or 60 votes to pass the senate or if it must sunset from the Byrd rule. Ridiculous.

Academic exercise. If the US raised the income tax to 90% for all Americans tommorrow, would it raise or lose revenue? I know what CBO would say.

[Zaphod]

TheGipper wrote:

CBO is both partisan and a bunch of idiots. I mean their ACA repeal projections assumed that tens of millions would voluntarily drop “free” Medicaid coverage.

Every major projection they have made has been WAY off. In their defense, 10 year out projections using modeled dynamic (or static) scoring is nearly impossible.

There is no way that their best guesses should be used to determine if a bill needs 50 or 60 votes to pass the senate or if it must sunset from the Byrd rule. Ridiculous.

Academic exercise. If the US raised the income tax to 90% for all Americans tommorrow, would it raise or lose revenue? I know what CBO would say.

Click to expand...

In their defense its really the economic models and DGSE that are totally flawed and have never fit reality. The sooner we are rid of them and people start applying models that approach true behavior the better off all of us will be.