Will Pickup’s determine EV’s Fate

[Tim]

happened in the 1970s. now again 2022s --- pretty good cycle in between. 70s were a lot worse than now too and same doomsday predictions.

Tim -The issue on the F150 EV won't be acceptance -- it'll be how much can/willing to produce? The trouble with legacy companies are several fold. Chief among them is franchising makes their living on service. New sales is really a small portion. Dealerships KNOW this. GM Bolt is a prime example where never advertised, yet still sold quite well despite no significant push/promo for it by dealerships. --Just like real estate brokers don't mention Redfin/Zillow -- ever.

Price elasticity and product acceptance for Ford.
The dealership network is a distribution issue. With new cars, financing and dealer opinions are the “profit”. Service is problematic with EVs. Trade ins and used cars are also legacy. No clue , but the Bolt sold < 25k for 2021. What ad budget would make sense? 726k F150s in 2021. There is a reason Bolt wasn’t advertised. The Ford MachE outsold the Bolt in 2021 by 10%. (27k). Of course Ford wants scarcity. Supply chain issues all over. But the success of the F150 is still significant in the speed of transition to EVs.
Tesla Model Y was the top EV seller in USA, 170k in 2021.
F150 is a big big dog. Consumer acceptance of this transition will impact all models. I think Ford had a plan. Mustang MachE, debug. F-150 debug, then build to scale. I agree supplies will be constrained. My gut seems to be Ford is gauging the appetite of the public to switch to EVs.

[StarTrekDoc]

Our entire way of life (i mean suburban) is built on consumption and is unsustainable.
This inflation and once gas hit $4 nationwide made this obvious.

happened in the 1970s. now again 2022s --- pretty good cycle in between. 70s were a lot worse than now too and same doomsday predictions.

Tim -The issue on the F150 EV won't be acceptance -- it'll be how much can/willing to produce? The trouble with legacy companies are several fold. Chief among them is franchising makes their living on service. New sales is really a small portion. Dealerships KNOW this. GM Bolt is a prime example where never advertised, yet still sold quite well despite no significant push/promo for it by dealerships. --Just like real estate brokers don't mention Redfin/Zillow -- ever.

[artemis]

But commuters? Beyond me why anyone with a daily commute doesn't already have an electric.

Some people, like me, don't have a place to plug it in to charge. But my condo is trying to solve that problem, so my next vehicle will probably be electric (or perhaps a hybrid).

[Tim]

Four drivers, but how many commuters? Maybe one. Maybe. And that ends in 3 weeks.

Besides, have you tried to get a new car lately? I have. It's impossible.

Not throwing shade. Not expecting an answer.
From a market acceptance viewpoint, zero EVs currently owned.
Miles driven for daily living in my view count as “commuter”. Personal miles are not deductible, but they are still miles. If one needs a vehicle, they go some place.
If EVs are to be successful they need the dominant form of transportation.
By no means do I see anyone buying 4 F150’s.
Not there yet, for cars or light trucks.

F150 is a big real world test of market acceptance.
Full disclosure: I don’t own a pickup or an EV.

[CordMcNally]

Some is what people need, and I think a good deal of what people are told they need by car manufacturers. Car manufacturers are good at selling the idea of a car, and the lifestyle that comes along with it. Take out 7year loan, pay tons of money for that 14mpg fuel costs. Keep up with other neighbours, coworkers, sport parents.
All effort is to sell as many cars as possible and make as much money. Doesn't matter if most people will be fine with smaller and affordable cars, gotta sell that Expedition, Suburban, F150, etc.

If people quit buying trucks/SUVs and started buying more cars I bet you'd see a lot more cars produced by domestic manufacturers. I'm not sure what their profit margins are on each product. Vehicles in the US are a combination of wants/needs. Many people need a vehicle but they don't want a basic little Smart car. Same thing with phones, TVs, etc.

[The White Coat Investor]

Four drivers in the family I think (or soon to be).
The house is wired for recharging. How many of you vehicles are using them or running on gas?
Just a question.

Four drivers, but how many commuters? Maybe one. Maybe. And that ends in 3 weeks.

Besides, have you tried to get a new car lately? I have. It's impossible.

[snowcanyon]

The fate of EV is already sealed. They will dominate new car sales in short order. The limiting factor is battery production, and cost. Time will take care of both of those. Battery cost has reduced 90% in the past 10 years in a fledgling industry.

The only thing that will get me out my Tesla is a decent truck. I have pre-orders for Cyber and Rivian. I was an F-150 guy prior to the Tesla. I don't miss my truck all that often, but when I do miss it I really do miss it a lot.

I've towed with a Model Y a fair bit, and I'd agree with range dropping by nearly half. Some of that is aerodynamics, which will be less of an issue for a truck (they are already not aerodynamic), and some is weight, which will always reduce range.

The next gen batteries and chargers will have parity with gas for fill time. Once those are prodigious, then only non-typical cases like WCI will remain a challenge.

Agreed. This is already happening in Europe and China, which combined are a much bigger market than the US. Electric vehicles are the future, and nearly the present. The change will happen sooner than people realize, and the limitation will be manufacturing capability, not demand. Rural areas will lag, as they did in the transition from horses to cars.

[resident_1]

Some is what people need, and I think a good deal of what people are told they need by car manufacturers. Car manufacturers are good at selling the idea of a car, and the lifestyle that comes along with it. Take out 7year loan, pay tons of money for that 14mpg fuel costs. Keep up with other neighbours, coworkers, sport parents.
All effort is to sell as many cars as possible and make as much money. Doesn't matter if most people will be fine with smaller and affordable cars, gotta sell that Expedition, Suburban, F150, etc.

They manufacturer what people want to buy. That's why they're working on large electric vehicles.

[CordMcNally]

Who knows what will happen to american car makers. They have abandoned sedans and fuel efficient cars and have been making multiple variations of gas guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks.
Our inflation, gas prices, and possibly recession will likely make millions of americans not be able to afford these giant cars.
Their rivals (toyota, kia, huyndai, honda) have been making for years fuel efficient and hybrid and now electric cars.

We buy pickups because of our high standard of living and endless consumption and strong marketing.
This may not continue much longer particularly if recession occurs. People soon will simply not have the money for these big cars.

I feel people that are currently driving these big SUVs and trucks are living in a bygone era (and for whatever reason want to spend $100s on gas/diesel).

They manufacturer what people want to buy. That's why they're working on large electric vehicles.

[Tim]

I'm in the process of buying a diesel pick-up. It's going to be a long time before an electric truck can do what I need it to do (tow 9,000 lbs for 10 hours, 570 miles, over mountains, without a charge). Or haul 2000 lbs for 384 miles over mountains. Sit for 2 weeks in the boondocks. Then go 260 miles over mountains drive by a shuttle service. Sit for 1 week in the boondocks. Then haul 2000 lbs 228 miles over mountains. Just not going to happen without better battery technology.

But commuters? Beyond me why anyone with a daily commute doesn't already have an electric.

Four drivers in the family I think (or soon to be).
The house is wired for recharging. How many of you vehicles are using them or running on gas?
Just a question.
Widespread customer acceptance hasn’t happened.
Light trucks are by far the largest new vehicle segment.
” In 2021, the auto industry in the United States sold approximately 14.9 million light vehicle units. This figure includes retail sales of about 3.3 million autos and just under 11.6 million light truck units. ” The Ford F series is the market leader.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-october-2011/

Automotive sales are significant part of our way of life and economy.
IF the largest segment (light trucks) and the market leader (F-150) are able to achieve customer acceptance by the masses then EVs will be successful. Big dogs lead the pack, so to speak. If this F150 launch fails in volumes, then……back to the drawing board and tons of head scratching.
To this point, EVs have a “proof of concept” but not adoption by the masses.
Price point matters. The next question is the “used vehicle market”, which is larger than the new vehicle market. The total transition will take time, no doubt. Replacing the best selling vehicle profitably and with an EV is a significant customer acceptance event.
What is not proven is the economics. Will the masses find it affordable.

[Molar Mechanic]

The fate of EV is already sealed. They will dominate new car sales in short order. The limiting factor is battery production, and cost. Time will take care of both of those. Battery cost has reduced 90% in the past 10 years in a fledgling industry.

The only thing that will get me out my Tesla is a decent truck. I have pre-orders for Cyber and Rivian. I was an F-150 guy prior to the Tesla. I don't miss my truck all that often, but when I do miss it I really do miss it a lot.

I've towed with a Model Y a fair bit, and I'd agree with range dropping by nearly half. Some of that is aerodynamics, which will be less of an issue for a truck (they are already not aerodynamic), and some is weight, which will always reduce range.

The next gen batteries and chargers will have parity with gas for fill time. Once those are prodigious, then only non-typical cases like WCI will remain a challenge.

[resident_1]

For local driving , back and forth to work, EV makes sense especially if you own your home and have a place to charge, but not sure if I would keep it in the garage. For a 10 mile commute just might ride an electric bike. The biggest problem is the cost and the necessity to have a second vehicle for more extensive driving. I have a 5 mile commute , so I really don't use much gas during the week and can go anywhere on the weekend with out worrying about range anxiety. My daughter lives in the city , she has a hard enough time finding a place to park, convenient charging for her would be a disaster.

Our entire way of life (i mean suburban) is built on consumption and is unsustainable.
This inflation and once gas hit $4 nationwide made this obvious.

[resident_1]

Who knows what will happen to american car makers. They have abandoned sedans and fuel efficient cars and have been making multiple variations of gas guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks.
Our inflation, gas prices, and possibly recession will likely make millions of americans not be able to afford these giant cars.
Their rivals (toyota, kia, huyndai, honda) have been making for years fuel efficient and hybrid and now electric cars.

We buy pickups because of our high standard of living and endless consumption and strong marketing.
This may not continue much longer particularly if recession occurs. People soon will simply not have the money for these big cars.

I feel people that are currently driving these big SUVs and trucks are living in a bygone era (and for whatever reason want to spend $100s on gas/diesel).

[The White Coat Investor]

I'm in the process of buying a diesel pick-up. It's going to be a long time before an electric truck can do what I need it to do (tow 9,000 lbs for 10 hours, 570 miles, over mountains, without a charge). Or haul 2000 lbs for 384 miles over mountains. Sit for 2 weeks in the boondocks. Then go 260 miles over mountains drive by a shuttle service. Sit for 1 week in the boondocks. Then haul 2000 lbs 228 miles over mountains. Just not going to happen without better battery technology.

But commuters? Beyond me why anyone with a daily commute doesn't already have an electric.

[PhysicianOnFIRE]

People love their trucks. Having multiple EVs available will expand the potential buyer pool quite a lot.

Also, https://www.google.com/search?q=misp...MQ2-cCegQIABAA

Cheers!
-PoF