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  • Will Pickup’s determine EV’s Fate

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/f-15...-stack-up.html

    Pickup trucks seem to be poised for a test of consumer acceptance of a transition to EV’s. If the Ford Lightning F-150 is accepted by the consumer market, this seems to be a real life test. Rural, suburban, residential, commercial and superfluous consumption are all touched by pickups. If there is widespread acceptance, consumers will either accept or reject the pace of transition.
    The recharging options will expand rapidly or continue a slow pace.
    Widely accepted, the gas options will disappear.
    Resistance and the transition to EV’s will flounder.
    I wish my time machine would show me two or three years in the future.

  • #2
    I think the Lightning will do well since it's still a truck, unlike the CyberTruck. I'm not sure how EVs will do with towing and range but I'd wager that 95% of F-150 owners don't do any significant towing. I'll probably be taking a very hard look at the Lightning in the next few years.

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    • #3
      Agree that towing is the wildcard here. I have a Rivian R1S on order. Early reports seem to indicate that towing reduces range up to 40% depending on weight and aerodynamics of what you tow. Real world experience is just not out there yet. I'd like to be able to tow a waterski boat 150 miles without needing to charge. This seems possible right now.

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      • #4
        If successful, F-250 and F-350 will follow.
        If not, probably not in the cards. I have not looked.
        Were the driverless tractor trailers pilot programs EV? I would think the power/gearing is solvable if the acceptance was there. Tons of assumptions, but solvable issues IF customer acceptance is mainstream. The much promoted self driving seems to be a niche market. Mass adoption of EV is about the power source. Pickups seem to be the acid test on widespread consumer acceptance. All manufacturers would go all in, including cars. If it’s slow or rejected, transition will slow to a crawl. Just a theory.

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        • #5
          Towing isn't the issue. Distance and at speed are the weaknesses of EVs. Most trucks are local and return to home base in relatively short order. Towing a camper 150miles is NOT going to do well.

          Job site 20miles away and hauling things all day in hot sun and with a cool cabin running silently to replace those diesels? Yeah, the EV will significantly outperform ICE.

          Cybertruck is be a mobile billboard for companies the first several years and bought specifically for this reason ---much like the hummer was early years.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
            I think the Lightning will do well since it's still a truck, unlike the CyberTruck. I'm not sure how EVs will do with towing and range but I'd wager that 95% of F-150 owners don't do any significant towing. I'll probably be taking a very hard look at the Lightning in the next few years.
            More like 99% don't tow anything. And 95% don't haul anything in the bed of the pickup that also wouldn't fit in an SUV or even car trunk.

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            • #7
              GM did a great study years ago and found that 80% of people live within 10 miles of where they work. This gave the average person just a 20 mile commute. The range with EVs is not an issue for the vast majority of folks who will drive to work and then recharge overnight. Certainly the case for me and why I've been so happy with my Chevy Volt. Sure it only has a 55 mile EV range before the gas engine kicks in, but I have used only 4 tanks of gas since I purchased the car in 2017.

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              • #8
                For local driving , back and forth to work, EV makes sense especially if you own your home and have a place to charge, but not sure if I would keep it in the garage. For a 10 mile commute just might ride an electric bike. The biggest problem is the cost and the necessity to have a second vehicle for more extensive driving. I have a 5 mile commute , so I really don't use much gas during the week and can go anywhere on the weekend with out worrying about range anxiety. My daughter lives in the city , she has a hard enough time finding a place to park, convenient charging for her would be a disaster.

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                • #9
                  I just passed about 50 pickups on an errand to the grocery store. A lot of (not majority) of pickups in the parking lot too. Every lawn guy has a pickup and every home project has a pickup. The segment is large. Price point and acceptance will drive the volume. Face it, no one really knows how the used EV truck market will go. If all the new ones are EVs, there won’t be a choice. FMV will simply be determined.
                  Last edited by Tim; 05-11-2022, 04:01 PM.

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                  • #10
                    People love their trucks. Having multiple EVs available will expand the potential buyer pool quite a lot.

                    Also, https://www.google.com/search?q=misp...MQ2-cCegQIABAA

                    Cheers!
                    -PoF

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                    • #11
                      I'm in the process of buying a diesel pick-up. It's going to be a long time before an electric truck can do what I need it to do (tow 9,000 lbs for 10 hours, 570 miles, over mountains, without a charge). Or haul 2000 lbs for 384 miles over mountains. Sit for 2 weeks in the boondocks. Then go 260 miles over mountains drive by a shuttle service. Sit for 1 week in the boondocks. Then haul 2000 lbs 228 miles over mountains. Just not going to happen without better battery technology.

                      But commuters? Beyond me why anyone with a daily commute doesn't already have an electric.
                      Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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                      • #12
                        Who knows what will happen to american car makers. They have abandoned sedans and fuel efficient cars and have been making multiple variations of gas guzzling SUVs and pickup trucks.
                        Our inflation, gas prices, and possibly recession will likely make millions of americans not be able to afford these giant cars.
                        Their rivals (toyota, kia, huyndai, honda) have been making for years fuel efficient and hybrid and now electric cars.

                        We buy pickups because of our high standard of living and endless consumption and strong marketing.
                        This may not continue much longer particularly if recession occurs. People soon will simply not have the money for these big cars.

                        I feel people that are currently driving these big SUVs and trucks are living in a bygone era (and for whatever reason want to spend $100s on gas/diesel).

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Random1 View Post
                          For local driving , back and forth to work, EV makes sense especially if you own your home and have a place to charge, but not sure if I would keep it in the garage. For a 10 mile commute just might ride an electric bike. The biggest problem is the cost and the necessity to have a second vehicle for more extensive driving. I have a 5 mile commute , so I really don't use much gas during the week and can go anywhere on the weekend with out worrying about range anxiety. My daughter lives in the city , she has a hard enough time finding a place to park, convenient charging for her would be a disaster.
                          Our entire way of life (i mean suburban) is built on consumption and is unsustainable.
                          This inflation and once gas hit $4 nationwide made this obvious.

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                          • #14
                            The fate of EV is already sealed. They will dominate new car sales in short order. The limiting factor is battery production, and cost. Time will take care of both of those. Battery cost has reduced 90% in the past 10 years in a fledgling industry.

                            The only thing that will get me out my Tesla is a decent truck. I have pre-orders for Cyber and Rivian. I was an F-150 guy prior to the Tesla. I don't miss my truck all that often, but when I do miss it I really do miss it a lot.

                            I've towed with a Model Y a fair bit, and I'd agree with range dropping by nearly half. Some of that is aerodynamics, which will be less of an issue for a truck (they are already not aerodynamic), and some is weight, which will always reduce range.

                            The next gen batteries and chargers will have parity with gas for fill time. Once those are prodigious, then only non-typical cases like WCI will remain a challenge.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by The White Coat Investor View Post
                              I'm in the process of buying a diesel pick-up. It's going to be a long time before an electric truck can do what I need it to do (tow 9,000 lbs for 10 hours, 570 miles, over mountains, without a charge). Or haul 2000 lbs for 384 miles over mountains. Sit for 2 weeks in the boondocks. Then go 260 miles over mountains drive by a shuttle service. Sit for 1 week in the boondocks. Then haul 2000 lbs 228 miles over mountains. Just not going to happen without better battery technology.

                              But commuters? Beyond me why anyone with a daily commute doesn't already have an electric.
                              Four drivers in the family I think (or soon to be).
                              The house is wired for recharging. How many of you vehicles are using them or running on gas?
                              Just a question.
                              Widespread customer acceptance hasn’t happened.
                              Light trucks are by far the largest new vehicle segment.
                              ” In 2021, the auto industry in the United States sold approximately 14.9 million light vehicle units. This figure includes retail sales of about 3.3 million autos and just under 11.6 million light truck units. ” The Ford F series is the market leader.
                              https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-october-2011/

                              Automotive sales are significant part of our way of life and economy.
                              IF the largest segment (light trucks) and the market leader (F-150) are able to achieve customer acceptance by the masses then EVs will be successful. Big dogs lead the pack, so to speak. If this F150 launch fails in volumes, then……back to the drawing board and tons of head scratching.
                              To this point, EVs have a “proof of concept” but not adoption by the masses.
                              Price point matters. The next question is the “used vehicle market”, which is larger than the new vehicle market. The total transition will take time, no doubt. Replacing the best selling vehicle profitably and with an EV is a significant customer acceptance event.
                              What is not proven is the economics. Will the masses find it affordable.


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