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What are the odds you will be healthy, vigorous, and sharp til age 75?

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Lordosis View Post
    Another reason to live below your means and retire early. Does not have to be crazy early. But 55 is way better than 65 for most people.
    Disagree. It's another reason to make your life right now what you want it to be. Do. Not. Wait. Until. Retirement. Of course, making your life what you want it to be probably does mean working less, but not necessarily retiring early.

    The downside of POF is that he FIREd perfectly and is loving it. I don't think a lot of people will do it as well has he did/has. People who work are happier than those who don't.

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    • #47
      haven't read the whole thread but I've been interested in life expectancy and mortality as a demographer. Has anyone checked out the life tables from SSA:

      https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

      from 2019. If you are a male who is 75 you will live, on average, another 11 years and you have a 3.5% probability of dying before 76. If you make it to 80 you can expect to live another 8 years. If you make it to 90 you can expect to live another 4 years on average and have a 16% probability of dying
      Last edited by JBME; 05-10-2022, 08:20 AM.

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Anne View Post

        Good point. It’s missing a lot and I don’t think it’s accurate. But I liked the way it made me think about how excess sitting in front of a computer (which my work entails way too much of…), stress, not sleeping enough, and other lifestyle factors might be affecting me.

        It predicts me living 48 more years, which sounds good to me. On the other hand, it says if I use heroin 90 times a month I will live 19 more years. So yeah, probably not the best data. Still, watching the countdown and compiling my list of things I want to accomplish was motivating for me to make some changes.
        What I'm hearing is an opportunity for us to develop a new and better app. This could be our side hustle - how do you feel about the lucrative prospect of spending 100 hours to earn $20/month?

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        • #49
          Originally posted by JBME View Post
          haven't read the whole thread but I've been interested in life expectancy and mortality as a demographer. Has anyone checked out the life tables from SSA:

          https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

          from 2019. If you are a male who is 75 you will life, on average, another 11 years and you have a 3.5% probability of dying before 76. If you make it to 80 you can expect to live another 8 years. If you make it to 90 you can expect to live another 4 years on average and have a 16% probability of dying
          https://www.foxnews.com/sports/tom-b...ng-career-over

          Tom Brady might actually START his "new career" sometime in the future. I can see a 75 year old quarterback finally calling it quits.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by JWeb View Post

            Disagree. It's another reason to make your life right now what you want it to be. Do. Not. Wait. Until. Retirement. Of course, making your life what you want it to be probably does mean working less, but not necessarily retiring early.

            The downside of POF is that he FIREd perfectly and is loving it. I don't think a lot of people will do it as well has he did/has. People who work are happier than those who don't.
            I’d like to see the research that backs that last statement up. Lots of confounding factors. But if you took a group of people who 1. Had enough saved up and 2. Had a lot of varied interests that require a lot of time (I.e. the type of people that FIRE appeals to)…would they be happier working vs not working? My theory is that many people who are happier working either need the money (so the monetary stress of not working causes unhappiness) or are not self-motivated or creative enough to make their own routine that gives them purpose. And then of course there are the lucky few who love all aspects of their work so much (including all the aspects that make it a job—I.e. the schedule/work environment/paperwork/politics) they would do it for free…I think those people are the exception.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Anne View Post

              My theory is that many people who are happier working either need the money (so the monetary stress of not working causes unhappiness) or are not self-motivated or creative enough to make their own routine that gives them purpose..
              Turns out this is nearly everybody...

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              • #52
                I'm partway through Die With Zero. It's been thought provoking so far. We've made a 5 year bucket list of things we want to do before we turn 40 and are making some progress. Things we can't or won't want to do when we're older.

                We have a high savings rate but splurge on good meals, vacations and hobbies. Also planning to retire in my early 40s. Hopefully, and with plenty of luck, I will feel very good about my cumulative life experiences by the time I am in my 60s or 70s so that if things go sideways health-wise, I won't have any regrets. Financially, most of us here are more likely to end up with multiples of our retirement portfolio when we die rather than running out of money. We are also fairly flexible with our spending and don't have expensive tastes in general. Healthcare expenditures may change things but no one can predict the future. I have faith that we'll make out alright, and am okay living with some low levels of uncertainty. I do not think that I will be working 5-10 extra years just to increase my firecalc odds of success from 97% to 99.9%.

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                  Turns out this is nearly everybody...
                  Exactly…but the statement is still used when the select few it doesn’t apply to, who would probably be happier not working (or at least not working a typical job) mention a desire to retire early

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                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Anne View Post

                    I’d like to see the research that backs that last statement up. Lots of confounding factors. But if you took a group of people who 1. Had enough saved up and 2. Had a lot of varied interests that require a lot of time (I.e. the type of people that FIRE appeals to)…would they be happier working vs not working? My theory is that many people who are happier working either need the money (so the monetary stress of not working causes unhappiness) or are not self-motivated or creative enough to make their own routine that gives them purpose. And then of course there are the lucky few who love all aspects of their work so much (including all the aspects that make it a job—I.e. the schedule/work environment/paperwork/politics) they would do it for free…I think those people are the exception.
                    It's from the freakonomics/no stupid questions podcasts. The quoted a few studies. They were in people who were in their 60s. So not exactly the FIRE crowd.
                    Last edited by JWeb; 05-10-2022, 08:13 AM. Reason: Added last two sentences.

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                    • #55
                      Great thread. I expect to be vigorous, healthy, and sharp at 75.

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Anne View Post

                        Exactly…but the statement is still used when the select few it doesn’t apply to, who would probably be happier not working (or at least not working a typical job) mention a desire to retire early
                        I never said people shouldn't retire early. I don't like that some people think that they need to be FI before they can change their life to be what they want it to be.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by JWeb View Post

                          I never said people shouldn't retire early. I don't like that some people think that they need to be FI before they can change their life to be what they want it to be.
                          exactly. If their plan includes a change in their life to be what they want it to be, and the "it" is work, then they don't need to be FI before they make the change

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by JBME View Post

                            exactly. If their plan includes a change in their life to be what they want it to be, and the "it" is work, then they don't need to be FI before they make the change
                            I think that depends on how much control they have over their workplace/work environment (unless they are willing to completely change careers).

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                            • #59
                              Originally posted by artemis View Post

                              I think that depends on how much control they have over their workplace/work environment (unless they are willing to completely change careers).
                              That's a huge plus for private practice. Although my employed colleagues also have quite a bit of control in their schedules.

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Tim View Post

                                I think you might be underestimating the design aspects of the human body. The low center of gravity and inherent quickness due simply to a lesser distance adjustment for stabilization are tremendous advantages. Faster starting, stopping and maneuverability stack the deck in your favor.
                                No doubt smaller people have advantages, but when it comes to competing and besting others in physical feats/competition... well there's a reason why smaller people generally aren't out competing bigger stronger foes at a high clip.

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