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Changing World Order

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  • Changing World Order

    I found this video by Ray Dalio really interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8&t=2140s
    I'm not saying the information is actionable, but rather just food for thought.
    There's another video by him titled Principles for Success. I was impressed enough by that one to order the corresponding book.
    You can go to his website, Principles.com and take a free personality profile. I did, and found the results surprisingly accurate.
    This is not a plug for anything commercial. I have no ties to any of this. Just wanted to pass on what I thought was an interesting comment on our times from a historical perspective. I'd be interested in your thoughts if you take the time to actually watch the video linked.

  • #2
    Superficially very attractive, but overall too simplistic. Take the analogy of actuarial predictions of health for a 60 year old man in the video. Sure, the health conditions are predictive. But we really don’t any thing like the amount of data for national well being that we do for human health. Otherwise, how do we explain the Roman Empire surviving for 1000 years in the east (Byzantine Empire) after the fall of Rome?

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    • #3
      The video is well done. So I guess Putin is Alaric.

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      • #4
        Just remember that the track record for gurus predicting the future is a lot worse than most assume it is.
        Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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        • #5
          Cool video. I don’t agree with all of it but it is very well made and will sell some books.

          I fell asleep while trying to read one of his earlier books.

          As for what we can do?

          I keep buying the world (VTI & VXUS) and control what i can control.

          Nothing else i can do.
          Last edited by Tangler; 03-06-2022, 07:57 AM.

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          • #6
            Didn't Ray Dalio visit Epstein's island

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Craigslist View Post
              Didn't Ray Dalio visit Epstein's island
              If so I would expect an expensive divorce.

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              • #8
                Isn’t this just a regurgitation of the Four Turnings theory which is just a technical descriptions that dynasties end and history repeats itself?

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                • #9
                  I guess the thing I found most interesting is where the US may be in the cycle. Specifically, the polarization we are seeing in our population seems more extreme than we have seen in my lifetime. It's pretty clear that as a society we would be in better shape if our leaders would work together to promote more unity and a path down the middle. Sadly, all too often, they seem to care more about their egos and personal gain and standing than doing their jobs, which is to work together and put the citizenry above their personal rewards.
                  On a macroeconomic note I'm not sure most people appreciate the benefits the US has acquired by being a reserve currency. One of our greatest exports is dollars. When dollars leave the country and are not returned it adds immensely to the overall wealth of the citizenry. It would be a huge loss if we lose our reserve currency status. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily controllable or actionable by the individual. Rather, it is important to understand some of the basic economic principals.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by pit.alumni View Post
                    I guess the thing I found most interesting is where the US may be in the cycle. Specifically, the polarization we are seeing in our population seems more extreme than we have seen in my lifetime. It's pretty clear that as a society we would be in better shape if our leaders would work together to promote more unity and a path down the middle. Sadly, all too often, they seem to care more about their egos and personal gain and standing than doing their jobs, which is to work together and put the citizenry above their personal rewards.
                    On a macroeconomic note I'm not sure most people appreciate the benefits the US has acquired by being a reserve currency. One of our greatest exports is dollars. When dollars leave the country and are not returned it adds immensely to the overall wealth of the citizenry. It would be a huge loss if we lose our reserve currency status. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily controllable or actionable by the individual. Rather, it is important to understand some of the basic economic principals.
                    How about where liberal democracy is in "the cycle": https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...future/616993/

                    Tangler hits the nail right on the head: control what you can control and the rest is out of your hands.

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                    • #11
                      I just don’t understand the cult of personality around Ray Dalio.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by burritos View Post
                        Isn’t this just a regurgitation of the Four Turnings theory which is just a technical descriptions that dynasties end and history repeats itself?
                        It is a retread, and Four Turnings was the better book on economic and political and human nature cycles.

                        USA's future will be interesting. All great empires crumble from within. I would think printing our currency into oblivion (negative interest, GDP goes down relative, other countries stop accepting print for goods, etc) or another American civil war (Trump 2024 win?) will be the things, but who knows? Nothing lasts forever, but as long as you have the most guns, you get stuff for free - for awhile.

                        Principles book by Dalio was ok... very verbose, but ok. I like the parts about attracting, incentivizing, and keeping good people around you. I think he's a better contributor and interview (on gold, finance, business, etc) than as an author. He's one of those people who is too smart for his own good and has a bit of trouble relating to the Average Joe, so it helps if somebody guides him or summarizes. Buffett is the same way (tough to relate to), but at least he's pretty concise.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by pit.alumni View Post
                          I guess the thing I found most interesting is where the US may be in the cycle. Specifically, the polarization we are seeing in our population seems more extreme than we have seen in my lifetime. It's pretty clear that as a society we would be in better shape if our leaders would work together to promote more unity and a path down the middle. Sadly, all too often, they seem to care more about their egos and personal gain and standing than doing their jobs, which is to work together and put the citizenry above their personal rewards.
                          On a macroeconomic note I'm not sure most people appreciate the benefits the US has acquired by being a reserve currency. One of our greatest exports is dollars. When dollars leave the country and are not returned it adds immensely to the overall wealth of the citizenry. It would be a huge loss if we lose our reserve currency status. I'm not saying any of this is necessarily controllable or actionable by the individual. Rather, it is important to understand some of the basic economic principals.
                          I am not sure this is true. I remember America being extremely polarized during the VietNam era.

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                          • #14
                            The polarization you’re seeing is the product of social media. Social media also encourages extreme views. I’m sure there would have been many things/events during your lifetime that would have the same level of polarization if social media and the level of connectivity were similar.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                              The polarization you’re seeing is the product of social media. Social media also encourages extreme views. I’m sure there would have been many things/events during your lifetime that would have the same level of polarization if social media and the level of connectivity were similar.
                              Social media, I don't do it. Don't think it helps anything.

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