North Korea

[hightower]

So, I'm sure you all have noticed the latest headlines (North Korea is threatening us and Trump today is threatening them back, both using cowboy, macho-man language).  What do you all think?  Are we going to see a nuclear war with these two leaders at the helm?

I personally have a very bad feeling.  Obviously NK's leader is a total nut job.  Trump, being the egotistical, immature person that he is, will probably not do very well in the diplomacy arena.  SO, that is making me pretty darn nervous right now.

I can't imagine how South Korea, Japan, and China are feeling right now, but being within such easy striking range has got to be making them all nervous.  I don't see them gaining the capability to strike the continental US.  It sounds like their technology is not quite up to par yet.  But, Alaska and Hawaii?  Hopefully we have excellent antimissile capabilities.

 

Not trying to start a doom and gloom thread or start an "I hate Trump because..." thread either.  Just curious what other's thoughts are at this point.  Keep it friendly

[RogueDadMD]

I used to think a lot about this with India and Pakistan and their nuclear saber rattling. I've never expected them to do anything stupid like nuclear war because while they may be corrupt, neither side is crazy or foolish.

In this case I can't really say the same. I would think nuclear war is still a very distant possibility, but it's not zero.

[hightower]

Yeah, I hope you're right.  I do have more faith in congress and military leaders than I do the president.  The healthcare debacle made me realize that it's not a dictatorship and congress actually can keep the president in check.  Fortunately our government has a nice set of checks and balances.  So, hopefully the more level headed leaders will keep the crazy one from doing anything stupid.

[Donnie]

Worry about things you can change.

[triad]

Kim has been acting completely rationally.  I think its unlikely he'll provoke a nuclear war

[pulmdoc]

Kim Jong Un is behaving very rationally. A nuclear warhead=leverage even if he has no plans to use it. It would be foolish of him to announce that he won't use nuclear weapons, there goes his leverage. Also, North Koreans have been told over and over for the past 75 years that the US is the great evil in the world and that the Kim family keeps them safe. The blustery language is basically announcing to his country he will continue to protect them. Compare the language coming out of Pyongnang now to what came from Bagdhad under Saddam or Tripoli under Qaddafi, it's eerily similar. Doesn't mean they are actually planning to start a war if China doesn't want it.

Trump, on the other hand, appears to be taking Nixon's "madman theory" of diplomacy to its logical conclusion and the whole world is on edge as a result.

[Gamma Knives]

Donnie wrote:

Worry about things you can change.

Click to expand...

I agree. We have stressful jobs. I do not have the emotional energy for politics and world affairs. I can hold my own in a discussion but my well informed opinion ends up being one vote. Maybe I should be marching on Washington and rallying on the steps of the state capital but I'm going to continue helping my patients and living my life.

On the other hand, I do wonder what this situation will be doing to the stock market (since this is a financial site). I have been considering putting some more of more my monthly saving towards paying down my mortgage (but 3.0% rate is not that motivating to pay off quickly) instead of my vanguard contributions (I have also been worrying about valuation). However, I do not spend too much time dwelling on that either. Instead I am going to plan my next vacation  8-) .

[hightower]

I agree not worth worrying about since it's outside of our control. But it's interesting to discuss.
I think stocks are going to dive if tensions continue. I'm already glad I sold my taxable account funds to pay off some debt (not because of this though, check my other thread if interested). I sold right before this stuff started.

[Kamban]

This is much ado about nothing. North Korea knows it is finished if it even tries to launch a nuclear missile against Japan, let alone USA. And Kim Jong Un knows it. What he is doing is grandstanding to his people.

What we should be doing is to ignore his taunts but monitor him quietly. Not to get into a yelling match with him. Pity Trump cannot do that.

 

[Kamban]

pulmdoc wrote:

Kim Jong Un is behaving very rationally. A nuclear warhead=leverage even if he has no plans to use it.

Click to expand...

If you are a nuclear power you command respect. Even if you are poor as dirt. China knew it. India and Pakistan knew it and hence did not not sign the nuclear non proliferation treaty, where the ones who have weapons can continue to have them forever but the ones who don't have it cannot develop one. Israel knows it. And Iran is well aware of it.

We are coming to realize that Mr. Kim has gotten the message too.

[Donnie]

Kamban wrote:

pulmdoc wrote:

Kim Jong Un is behaving very rationally. A nuclear warhead=leverage even if he has no plans to use it.

Click to expand…

If you are a nuclear power you command respect. Even if you are poor as dirt. China knew it. India and Pakistan knew it and hence did not not sign the nuclear non proliferation treaty, where the ones who have weapons can continue to have them forever but the ones who don’t have it cannot develop one. Israel knows it. And Iran is well aware of it.

We are coming to realize that Mr. Kim has gotten the message too.

Click to expand...

I agree with this.  I have always found the position that "we" (China, France, Russian, United Kingdom, United States) can have nukes but no one else can fairly odd.  I mean I understand why "we" would say that, but not sure how "we" have the right to impose that on other nations.

[Craigy]

Donnie wrote:

Kamban wrote:

pulmdoc wrote:

Kim Jong Un is behaving very rationally. A nuclear warhead=leverage even if he has no plans to use it.

Click to expand…

If you are a nuclear power you command respect. Even if you are poor as dirt. China knew it. India and Pakistan knew it and hence did not not sign the nuclear non proliferation treaty, where the ones who have weapons can continue to have them forever but the ones who don’t have it cannot develop one. Israel knows it. And Iran is well aware of it.

We are coming to realize that Mr. Kim has gotten the message too.

Click to expand…

I agree with this.  I have always found the position that “we” (China, France, Russian, United Kingdom, United States) can have nukes but no one else can fairly odd.  I mean I understand why “we” would say that, but not sure how “we” have the right to impose that on other nations.

Click to expand...

Not so much a right, but an ability based on economic strength, geopolitical power, etc.  Particularly if other nations depend on you for A, B, C, you can pressure them to do X, Y, Z.

[DMFA]

Bet a bunch of folks did their TLHing today...

[hightower]

TLH?

[RPW25]

What is "Tax Loss Harvesting?"