All these stores closing...recession coming?

[resident_1]

Anyone else feel uneasy about sheer number of retail store closing?  Its not just the jobs in the store, but all jobs that are created by shopping malls (maintenance, repair, advertising, transportation to and from, etc).  Not to mention the ripple effect on other smaller stores in areas of big store closures.
What is different in 2017 is that these jobs are not coming back since they are replaced by online sales.  And these are good basic jobs for high school students, summer jobs, seasonal jobs for college students (heck in med school some students worked retail during winter break), jobs for those with high school or less degrees.  There are big industries not doing well either (Westinghouse nuclear filed for bankruptcy this month). This means likely no more nuclear plant construction in US for very long time if ever.  Hospital system that employs me is working on merging with another system (HR sends out e-mails with generic talk, yet not getting at reason why this is needed).

I think more than ever time is to reduce expenses, save, prepare for job volatility.

[StarTrekDoc]

Retail undergoing changes to next gen -  Strip Malls to Shopping centers to BigBox stores to online centers .   Amazon is king of the roost for now, but let's see what happens in 10-20 years.  Bezos can't rest on his laurels lest amazon becomes the next wollsworth-kmart-circuit city-jcp

We have steadily become a more service sector oriented economy in the past 2 decades and that doesn't appear to be slowing either.  Fortunately for us, healthcare remains a growing sector.  The way we deliver it may change in the future, but the actual sector continues to grow for our current generation.

[The White Coat Investor]

Buggy whip manufacturers all out of business too.

I think the US will continue to do well. There will be different jobs. They will pay better than retail. There will be individual pain for both business owners and labor due to the rapidity of the changes.

Best thing any one individual can do is continue to learn and upgrade skills throughout life.

[Zaphod]

Real retail sales are still at all time highs, even if growth has slowed when you back out gas sales (big yoy increase). As everyone has mentioned, things have just changed in how theyre done. If you look up the square feet of retail per capita in america you'd note that its wildly higher than any other country, over built to a staggering degree. There is no logical reason I need a home depot 0.5 mi away and a lowes 0.5 in the other direction, or 5 sports shops within 2 miles (many went out of business last couple years), it just makes no sense.

The other issue is the real estate boom might be causing landlords/reits to aggressively raise rents. There are very high trafficked money areas even in NYC that are closing left and right, there has to be a margin. Was thinking similarly in Vegas this weekend, crowds everywhere, hardly anyone in the stores a strange phenomenon.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRSFS

[DMFA]

I spend more now than I ever have on consumer goods.  I almost never go to stores; everything's online, and most of it is from Amazon.  The only time I go is when I have to try something out first, and even then I go back home before buying.  Exception is clothing, I suppose.  I'm still a bit gun-shy about buying before trying on.

I have no idea why someone would go to a big-box store, nor why a businessperson would want to pay that much in rent for one.

[WallStreetPhysician]

resident_1 wrote:

Anyone else feel uneasy about sheer number of retail store closing?  Its not just the jobs in the store, but all jobs that are created by shopping malls (maintenance, repair, advertising, transportation to and from, etc).  Not to mention the ripple effect on other smaller stores in areas of big store closures.
What is different in 2017 is that these jobs are not coming back since they are replaced by online sales.  And these are good basic jobs for high school students, summer jobs, seasonal jobs for college students (heck in med school some students worked retail during winter break), jobs for those with high school or less degrees.  There are big industries not doing well either (Westinghouse nuclear filed for bankruptcy this month). This means likely no more nuclear plant construction in US for very long time if ever.  Hospital system that employs me is working on merging with another system (HR sends out e-mails with generic talk, yet not getting at reason why this is needed).

I think more than ever time is to reduce expenses, save, prepare for job volatility.

Click to expand...

People are not spending less money, they are just spending it in different places (online instead of brick-and-mortar). This does not mean a recession is or is not coming. If anything, the same amount of business is being down with fewer people, and those displaced can add value in other industries, thereby growing the overall economy.

-WSP

[visoriano]

Economy is a continuum, I'm sure that piano makers also noted a threat when the radio was massively sold. In my perception, from living abroad and in the US long enough to create an educated idea of what will happen next, the US will do good as a country but no-one's job/income is safe. Jobs will become more service-oriented than retail/sales-oriented as StarTrekDoc pointed out (I'm sure that every hospital administrator is smiling at my comment): JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK, including coal  :lol:

What I wonder is what will happen to those big stores that are now empty spaces... where Im doing residency, an Office Depot and a Sports Authority closed in my first year, I'm about to leave town in a couple months and those spaces remain vacant. I have daydreamed a couple times that if rent was cheap enough, I could make the case for a Crossfit gym  

[DMFA]

visoriano wrote:

Economy is a continuum, I’m sure that piano makers also noted a threat when the radio was massively sold. In my perception, from living abroad and in the US long enough to create an educated idea of what will happen next, the US will do good as a country but no-one’s job/income is safe. Jobs will become more service-oriented than retail/sales-oriented as StarTrekDoc pointed out (I’m sure that every hospital administrator is smiling at my comment): JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK, including coal  

What I wonder is what will happen to those big stores that are now empty spaces… where Im doing residency, an Office Depot and a Sports Authority closed in my first year, I’m about to leave town in a couple months and those spaces remain vacant. I have daydreamed a couple times that if rent was cheap enough, I could make the case for a Crossfit gym  

Click to expand...

I thought the biggest thing with Crossfit is that you didn't need a whole lot of space; could do it in a little strip mall slot instead of a big box and still charge people an exorbitant amount.

[Complete_newbie]

So what are we ? Turning into Japan? Stay home play video games/netflix binge/(you)Tube it out all day? ... Big problem over there. Dudes don't even wanna get laid.

Stores may close, but something else will take its place. People need to move about and go outside their homes and that includes shopping. Not everyone is going to parks, recreation etc every weekend. Folks need malls/strip joints to walk around/hang out in.

May be I'm old school, but I try things out (clothes specially) before purchasing. I use amazon, but not for everything.

[Zaphod]

Complete_newbie wrote:

So what are we ? Turning into Japan? Stay home play video games/netflix binge/(you)Tube it out all day? … Big problem over there. Dudes don’t even wanna get laid.

Stores may close, but something else will take its place. People need to move about and go outside their homes and that includes shopping. Not everyone is going to parks, recreation etc every weekend. Folks need malls/strip joints to walk around/hang out in.

May be I’m old school, but I try things out (clothes specially) before purchasing. I use amazon, but not for everything.

Click to expand...

Its definitely an issue, but something like that. Hopefully this big demo swing thats just barely starting gets things moving. There is an inherent level of satisfaction that is just enough to keep people from caring, seems to be a real thing. Giving people a way to feel valued will be a great problem in the future and actually right now in certain areas.

[Hatton]

Recessions occur every few years and yes another one is coming.  All these stores closing is really a normal thing.  A chain dominates until a nimbler store comes along and crushes it.  The big malls may be going away.  Who knows there may be a trend to smaller more regional stores just like food.  These things happen and don't mean a recession is looming.  I enjoy walking around stores even if I don't buy a thing.

[WallStreetPhysician]

Many malls in my area have walking clubs precisely for people like you, who enjoy the walking experience of a mall but don't spend much.