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  • Originally posted by K82 View Post

    I don't know how it would affect the results. Like I said earlier, there are a ton of variables in all of this. If you have an interest in slicing up the data for NY depending on when their mask mandate went into effect compared to FL, go for it and get back to us.
    If I have more time later, I can splice the data more sufficiently, but I actually was able to do an initial look. Just focusing on New York vs. Florida - NY had 30k (roughly) deaths by end of May 2020, which is 44% of the states' total deaths just in the first three months! That actually shocked me, wasn't aware of the pure scope of that initial wave there. Florida in that same period had only 260, which accounts for .3% (not 3 - that's point 3) of the total FL deaths. Worldometers's cumulative charts/totals was my source as it was the quickest to sort by state and by date. Also quickly double checked https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...and-/uggs-hy5q data to make sure I wasn't way off because I was surprised by how stark the results were.

    Suffice it to say that NY and FL are no where close to same rate of death once you account for the initial wave. Almost twice as high a death rate in FL than in NY between June 2020 and now.

    MA was closer to 30% of that states' total deaths occurred in those first weeks, and NJ was 40%, so less of a difference, but definitely a significant one.

    Again, point isn't that mask mandates and lockdowns are effective, but i guess my initial reaction was right that comparing those two with respect to death rate definitely does not support an argument as initially stated.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by East coast View Post

      If I have more time later, I can splice the data more sufficiently, but I actually was able to do an initial look. Just focusing on New York vs. Florida - NY had 30k (roughly) deaths by end of May 2020, which is 44% of the states' total deaths just in the first three months! That actually shocked me, wasn't aware of the pure scope of that initial wave there. Florida in that same period had only 260, which accounts for .3% (not 3 - that's point 3) of the total FL deaths. Worldometers's cumulative charts/totals was my source as it was the quickest to sort by state and by date. Also quickly double checked https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...and-/uggs-hy5q data to make sure I wasn't way off because I was surprised by how stark the results were.

      Suffice it to say that NY and FL are no where close to same rate of death once you account for the initial wave. Almost twice as high a death rate in FL than in NY between June 2020 and now.

      MA was closer to 30% of that states' total deaths occurred in those first weeks, and NJ was 40%, so less of a difference, but definitely a significant one.

      Again, point isn't that mask mandates and lockdowns are effective, but i guess my initial reaction was right that comparing those two with respect to death rate definitely does not support an argument as initially stated.
      NY and NJ instituted mask mandates in early/mid April: NJ April 6 and NY April 17. I think you would have to start your count at that time if you want to determine mask mandate effectiveness.

      I still hold to my contention that if mask mandates were such a game changer, than why do the charts of all the states show no huge differences between states that were strict and those that weren't?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by K82 View Post

        NY and NJ instituted mask mandates in early/mid April: NJ April 6 and NY April 17. I think you would have to start your count at that time if you want to determine mask mandate effectiveness.

        I still hold to my contention that if mask mandates were such a game changer, than why do the charts of all the states show no huge differences between states that were strict and those that weren't?
        They were a game changer for people who would otherwise not have been able to ride the bus or go to the grocery store. They cut transmission in schools significantly, w which allowed kids with immunocompromised family members to attend in person.

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        • Originally posted by snowcanyon View Post

          They were a game changer for people who would otherwise not have been able to ride the bus or go to the grocery store. They cut transmission in schools significantly, w which allowed kids with immunocompromised family members to attend in person.
          I don't think you can say that as fact when there are no studies that show conclusively it's true, and like I keep saying, the charts from the past two years don't show any significant difference in cases or deaths between states that had strict mask mandate laws and those that didn't.

          I personally believe that the masks did/do more harm in kids in school by far than help. Language development, facial expressions, being able to understand what the teacher is saying, are not insignificant issues. Also, we are creating a whole generation of mental health phobias in all these kids who are being led to believe they have to wear a mask or risk death to themselves or others.

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          • The other thing I find curious about the mask mandate is that we have a bunch of liberal states doing away with the mandate right now, even though the current death rate is still higher than it was last summer as well as in the fall of 2020. Why is that? Could it be due to the fact that the public is seeing that it doesn't really make a difference and they have had enough of it, and the mid term elections are coming? How else do you explain this change in policy as it relates to data on the ground?

            https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...19-spread-map/

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            • And yet another interesting fact regarding Covid comparisons between countries is the data for Sweden compared to the US. This site is very useful for comparing any country you want for a multitude of parameters:

              https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden

              This thing I find interesting is that the death rate in the US was much worse over the course of the pandemic than it was in Sweden. Also, the curves for the cases was very similar despite Sweden rejecting any lock downs or mask mandates. They were widely ridiculed for this approach. Was this due to other factors in that country? Maybe. But it does cause one to pause and wonder if any of these severe protective measures did anything to decrease the death rate in the US.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by K82 View Post
                And yet another interesting fact regarding Covid comparisons between countries is the data for Sweden compared to the US. This site is very useful for comparing any country you want for a multitude of parameters:

                https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/sweden

                This thing I find interesting is that the death rate in the US was much worse over the course of the pandemic than it was in Sweden. Also, the curves for the cases was very similar despite Sweden rejecting any lock downs or mask mandates. They were widely ridiculed for this approach. Was this due to other factors in that country? Maybe. But it does cause one to pause and wonder if any of these severe protective measures did anything to decrease the death rate in the US.
                And how did Sweden compare to its immediate Scandinavian neighbors?

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                • Originally posted by K82 View Post
                  Another insanity that is driving me crazy is making all US citizens test negative for Covid to get back into our country when flying home. This is insane. Its not for the safety of the other passengers on the plane because I can get on the plane in the US without a negative test to fly out of the country. Its not to protect our countries border from bringing Covid into the US because I can drive into the US in a car without a negative Covid test. Can anyone explain to me the logic behind this?
                  I don't think there is any logic behind it. It's another example of covid policy without any good scientific basis.

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                  • Originally posted by K82 View Post
                    Why is that? Could it be due to the fact that the public is seeing that it doesn't really make a difference and they have had enough of it, and the mid term elections are coming?

                    https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...19-spread-map/
                    Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by HikingDO View Post
                      Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
                      Perversely, the government clearly is in the business of picking winners and losers.
                      https://ktrh.iheart.com/alternate/am...-mask-mandate/
                      The data shows, the pilots union is a definite “loser” as compared to the teachers unions.
                      The science is easy to understand. Almost most of the mandates and enforcement starts out under the expansion of “emergency powers”.
                      Politically, our country has been operating under “declared political emergencies” since 2016.

                      Ironically, if Dr. Jill had been a pilot, the skies might be free of vaccine or mask mandates. If Dr Jill or Hunter would have been a petroleum engineer, the US might have a different slant on fossil fuels. If Hunter had grown up in west Texas in the oil business, immigration and energy policies might be different.

                      Emergency powers are discretionary, tend to be abused. COVID no longer is an emergency. It is a potential danger, but not a surprise. Now it is clearly a political tool. Our government is resisting losing it, not for emergencies or public benefit, political benefits are so much easier under “emergency powers” and mandates.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by K82 View Post
                        The other thing I find curious about the mask mandate is that we have a bunch of liberal states doing away with the mandate right now, even though the current death rate is still higher than it was last summer as well as in the fall of 2020. Why is that? Could it be due to the fact that the public is seeing that it doesn't really make a difference and they have had enough of it, and the mid term elections are coming? How else do you explain this change in policy as it relates to data on the ground?

                        https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...19-spread-map/
                        Midterm elections is one facet sure - a politician's goal is to be re-elected, so why would that be surprising? On the flip side, that's the same reason DeSantis ignored all the science and did what his anti-vax/mask constituents wanted - it's how the game is played.

                        Other factors could be the vax rate in the US is higher, and the overall death rate for the variant is low.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                          And how did Sweden compare to its immediate Scandinavian neighbors?
                          Interesting enough, Norway and Finland did much better than Sweden in the last two peaks but Sweden is currently doing much better than the other two. Sweden has done much better than the UK or US throughout the pandemic. I have no idea how restrictive Norway and Finland have been.

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                          • Originally posted by K82 View Post

                            Interesting enough, Norway and Finland did much better than Sweden in the last two peaks but Sweden is currently doing much better than the other two. Sweden has done much better than the UK or US throughout the pandemic. I have no idea how restrictive Norway and Finland have been.
                            Sweden has had 1765 deaths per million population

                            Finland : 501
                            Norway: 495

                            I mean, there's no comparison at all. My question was rhetorical.

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                            • ​I have no idea if masks work or not to decrease COVID infections. I suspect there's benefit to decreasing viral load - even if it ends up being a small decrease - but I can't find data that's clearly convincing. And that's a really hard study to design well and carry out. What is obvious to me is that the initial lockdown period was critically important. Do y'all not remember the crazy ************************ we were doing? Intubate anyone who fails 6lpm by nasal cannula? Intubate in a box? Extubate under plastic shower curtains? Split a vent between two patients? Split a bipap between 2 patients? ************************ WBD wrote a very thoughtful and moving post about the weight he carried having to plan for rationing care. We needed a month or two to breathe and figure out how to handle this disease. We didn't know what we were doing - and that's understandable. Now vents are never the limiting factor - and that's not because Ford produced a bunch. We don't use them very often and for good reason.

                              Forcing everyone to stay home had tons of negative effects, granted. But if we hadn't paused and figured out what to do we would have had hundreds of thousands more deaths all from our ignorance. Oh, and I don't see how you can look at Scandinavia and not see that some combination of measures must have worked. I included Denmark bc it has much higher pop density - and a less isolated location - but still has similar demographics for comparison. If you're interested - besides pop density (Sweden = 1.6x Norway), they're incredibly similar (demographics, genetics, immunization rates, etc) but Norway took a much more cautious approach.

                              All that said, now that we're well immunized, it's time to move on. I just hate hearing this revisionist garbage when y'all were there and must have noticed that slowing the spread for a couple months allowed us to learn and adapt during a critical time.


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                              • “All that said, now that we're well immunized, it's time to move on. I just hate hearing this revisionist garbage when y'all were there and must have noticed that slowing the spread for a couple months allowed us to learn and adapt during a critical time.”

                                As a non-physician and hopefully to all, the “lowering the curve” period was absolutely needed.
                                With any medical transmission:
                                Prevention (vaccines) and treatment are the only viable solutions. Coronavirus was not going away.
                                CDC lost it’s way (for whatever reason). CDC INTENTIONALLY ignored and actually withheld information as well as “messaged” misleading information.
                                First, all masks are not equal. Only N95 protect both the spread and exposure. This was a known at the outset. Rationing was absolutely necessary. What happened to phase 2? Crickets. To this day, cloth or paper or surgical are all the same. They are not. Mandating ineffective or less than optimal masks is lunacy. I cringe when I see “a mask protects you and spreading this to your loved ones”. That is a misrepresentation to this day.
                                Second, impact of immunity from prior infection.
                                Third, data on need for a booster not being released. Still not released for something like 20-50.
                                You see, scientists and the public might not agree with their desired recommendations. Too dumb.
                                Fourth, timing of changes. Not based upon new data. Based on other influences.

                                I think once vaccines and treatments became available, the emergency was over. It is not revisionist, the CDC is still making the same mistakes, all 4 above. Not objective or based on science, simply influenced by other factors. Many conflicting guidances as well. Like asymptomatic need for isolation. Imagine a positive teacher being told to go to work? But it is great for nurse or doctor? Geez, I guess some diseases impact people based on occupation. And a cloth or paper mask protects no one. They should have stayed in their lane. Advice on coronavirus, not occupation or economic cost/benefit.
                                Lowering the curve, vaccines and treatments solved the pandemic.
                                Tons of CYA going on, not just with Covid.

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