Medical Discussion of Coronavirus

[StarTrekDoc]

True - I'm hoping that we get to a six month cadence for 2022 and then annual for 2023 onwards to pair with the flu shot.

Which sucks cause I can pretty crushed with the mRNA shots.

[CordMcNally]

True - I'm hoping that we get to a six month cadence for 2022 and then annual for 2023 onwards to pair with the flu shot.

Which sucks cause I can pretty crushed with the mRNA shots.

I predict less people will now be getting the flu shot as well.

[AR]

Looks like this South African variant has the markets and many countries spooked. Are we all going to die...again?

I'm not worried...yet.

Even if vaccinated people get omicron, it only really matters if vaccinated people die or get hospitalized at a significantly higher rate. Plenty of vaccinated people got delta, but overall they did pretty well. Maybe it will be the same with omicron, maybe it won't be. It's too early to tell right now obviously.

[Lordosis]

I predict less people will now be getting the flu shot as well.

My limited and anecdotal observations lead me to believe it is about the same as past year's. Some people decline now that had gotten it before. But not many. And a few new to the flu shot as well but also not many.

[CordMcNally]

I'm not worried...yet.

Even if vaccinated people get omicron, it only really matters if vaccinated people die or get hospitalized at a significantly higher rate. Plenty of vaccinated people got delta, but overall they did pretty well. Maybe it will be the same with omicron, maybe it won't be. It's too early to tell right now obviously.

I’m not worried about the actual variant yet but I’m worried how governments are going to react and so far it hasn’t been promising.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

I’m not worried about the actual variant yet but I’m worried how governments are going to react and so far it hasn’t been promising.

Yeah. It’s interesting how all this plays out over time. In Florida, we went from the highest covid rates around in the summer, to the lowest rates in the country relatively quickly. I haven’t actually seen a single Covid case in many weeks now, and before that it was a rare case here and there spread out over days and weeks. Down from 20+ cases per provider per shift during the peaks.

I’m not really a political person, but I’m actually quite happy with how the “no closures /open door”approach to Covid works here. Get crushed for 6 weeks… then it’s over.

The approach should probably shift strongly to how we can live with Covid from here on out, and away from eradication. It will be 2 years of this soon, with no end in sight. I’m happy I’m here rather than other states that handle things differently.

[StarTrekDoc]

Eradication went out the door after the first three months. Some just don't want to admit that even now.. as just as many deniers. Bell curve works that way.

Fortunate cities with good infrastructure can withstand surges and maintain daily operations. Some entire states don't have that luxury and the system strains under the surge and negatively impacts other operations downstrteam and that Should be the main thrust from the large scale public policy standpoint.

If we can get down to a flu symptoms level that'll be a win and most will accept that level of operations.

What definitely has changed for the good is if you're sick....stay home.

[CordMcNally]

Yeah. It’s interesting how all this plays out over time. In Florida, we went from the highest covid rates around in the summer, to the lowest rates in the country relatively quickly. I haven’t actually seen a single Covid case in many weeks now, and before that it was a rare case here and there spread out over days and weeks. Down from 20+ cases per provider per shift during the peaks.

I’m not really a political person, but I’m actually quite happy with how the “no closures /open door”approach to Covid works here. Get crushed for 6 weeks… then it’s over.

The approach should probably shift strongly to how we can live with Covid from here on out, and away from eradication. It will be 2 years of this soon, with no end in sight. I’m happy I’m here rather than other states that handle things differently.

It's almost like whatever we do doesn't really make that much of a difference. It may put off the inevitable for a few weeks or month. I agree with the open approach and I'll give DeSantis credit for sticking to his plan despite how much negative national spotlight he has received. We really don't hear about Florida in the national news now that the cases have gone way down there.

I've never understood the travel bans or stay at home orders that start a few days from the announcement. If you're going to do it, do it. I don't agree with it but don't half ****************** it.

[Jaqen Haghar MD]

It's almost like whatever we do doesn't really make that much of a difference. It may put off the inevitable for a few weeks or month. I agree with the open approach and I'll give DeSantis credit for sticking to his plan despite how much negative national spotlight he has received. We really don't hear about Florida in the national news now that the cases have gone way down there.

I've never understood the travel bans or stay at home orders that start a few days from the announcement. If you're going to do it, do it. I don't agree with it but don't half ****************** it.

It’s funny how it works out that way, isn’t it. We have gone from slightly biased news in decades past, to an almost absolute propaganda state now.

It’s almost as if no matter what the powers that be do, they both make things worse. Most of the country’s damage isn’t from actual Covid, but from Covid policies. In that case, since both sides are largely incompetent and unhelpful, the side that does the least - does the least damage, and therefore is most helpful by default.

Not to get overly political though. Both sides are a bunch of cray-cray buffoons.

[Tim]

I’m not worried about the actual variant yet but I’m worried how governments are going to react and so far it hasn’t been promising.

I think this has a long ways to go from a public health and governance perspective. There is a huge different between policy vs procedures.
Early on, the initial comparison to "Flu" was roundly pooh poohed.
Policy: contagious disease vaccines need to be approved and regulated.
Procedure: How to get vaccinated.
Required vaccination: What is the requirement for kids in school for the Flu and Covid vaccinations? Should they be the same?
The arguments about "patriotic duty", "duty to society", "individual choice", "freedom" are all emotionally based opinions. All seem to be based on "unintended consequences" that may or may not happen. There is not a consensus but a difference of opinion of what is "right or wrong" for the "requirements".
I find it amusing that we seem to be back to using the "flu vaccine" and "covid vaccines" as being viewed in the same manner when a year ago they were "so much different".
The debate comes down to "who makes the choice". I don't see that being a fixed anytime soon.

[pulmdoc]

It’s funny how it works out that way, isn’t it. We have gone from slightly biased news in decades past, to an almost absolute propaganda state now.

It’s almost as if no mater what the powers that be do, they both make things worse. Most of the country’s damage isn’t from actual Covid, but from Covid policies. In that case, since both sides are largely incompetent and unhelpful, the side that does the least - does the least damage, and therefore is most helpful by default.

Not to get overly political though. Both sides are a bunch of cray-cray buffoons.

I think 777,000 deaths, millions of hospitalizations and millions of people sick and unable to work (many for months at a time) is pretty ************************ damaging.

We are seeing that COVID has peaks and troughs corresponding to when people are most likely to gather and stay indoors. In the South, that started in July and petered out by October. The upper Midwest had dramatically lower rates in the summer and started spiking around Halloween. I expect much of the country to have a very bad winter (again). A politician patting themselves on the back because cases are going downhill due to seasonal change is like congratulating themselves for sunlight.

[CordMcNally]

We are seeing that COVID has peaks and troughs corresponding to when people are most likely to gather and stay indoors. In the South, that started in July and petered out by October. The upper Midwest had dramatically lower rates in the summer and started spiking around Halloween. I expect much of the country to have a very bad winter (again). A politician patting themselves on the back because cases are going downhill due to seasonal change is like congratulating themselves for sunlight.

Are we, though? The US peaks have been spring, summer, winter, and late summer. Florida's has been summer, winter, and summer and their cases have been dropping the later into November that they get. Some states have seen some seasonality but this hasn't been close to the seasonality of something like the flu.

A politician patting themselves on the back because cases are going downhill due to seasonal change is like congratulating themselves for sunlight.

Kind of the same way politicians pat themselves on the back with lockdown/mask mandates when cases go down but not when the cases go up after they instituted those measures.

[StarTrekDoc]

The drift of covid is more due to entry points then travel habits and then locale habits of gathering.

Cell phone tracking was a very interesting thing to see early on and a good predictor of spread for a entry nidus to other places seeded.

march 2020. Ski resorts and NYC were the nidus and caused much of the spread.

Fall 2020 colleges that stayed open
Nov 2020 college returnees to home kicked off the winter spread nationwide

Summer 2021 Delta entry into USA and subsequent spread with summer travel and reopening.

Movement will guarantee.spread. one can slow it down but most have learned that it won't stop it.

All these travel closures three days after decision is the proverbial closing the door 30min after noticing the fox got into the hen house...more theatre than anything. Can break out the temperature checks too while we're at it.

[StarTrekDoc]

The direct impact of covid cannot be minimized. #3 leading cause of death in 2020. Hospitalizations and then long covid.

How much did administrative impacts help or hurt? Hard to say as did so many things. Travel and movement restrictions, curfews, masking. How about eviction moratorium or the huge subsidies paid out like PPP and unemployment?

The cost will be born on the rest of our generation and next.

How much TBD.....and it's not inconsequential from human or dollar POV

[Kamban]

Anyone who thinks we can eradicate this COVID-19 is in a pure delusional state. This virus is going to mutate, and mutate again and again.

The only things we can say with some level of confidence is that vaccine helps in reducing chance of an infection and certainly reduces the risk of hospitalization / dying if you get it. How much the vaccine and the inevitable boosters will work against new strains is unknown. But pharma companies are making money hand over fist and every new strain, every new scare is increasing their profits.

Masks can help somewhat but I suspect it has cut down flu epidemic more than COVID.

I am just going to get my vaccines as they come and hope for the best. My major disappointment is travel restrictions and constant lockdowns by various governments. The testing companies and travel insurance companies are also making a ton of money off this epidemic.