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  • Looks like this South African variant has the markets and many countries spooked. Are we all going to die...again?

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    • 2% of unvaccinated- yes. Miami is a relative medium gateway for African travel.
      B.1.1.529 has a constellation of mutations that can be concerning and may have origin roots from Beta variant which had a propensity of mild vaccine evasion.

      The real question is how this will compete against Delta. We had a variant strain here in CA early summer that Delta thankfully snuffed out.

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      • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
        2% of unvaccinated- yes. Miami is a relative medium gateway for African travel.
        B.1.1.529 has a constellation of mutations that can be concerning and may have origin roots from Beta variant which had a propensity of mild vaccine evasion.

        The real question is how this will compete against Delta. We had a variant strain here in CA early summer that Delta thankfully snuffed out.
        Isn't it entirely too early to even throw out any death rate numbers, etc? Seems like a good way to end up wrong but that would be par for the COVID course.

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        • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

          Isn't it entirely too early to even throw out any death rate numbers, etc? Seems like a good way to end up wrong but that would be par for the COVID course.
          Quoting the standard death rate as a point of reference can keep folk relatively grounded.

          vs your primed early opening statement the market Black Friday thread " Are we all going to die...again?" who's stirring the pot?

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          • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

            Quoting the standard death rate as a point of reference can keep folk relatively grounded.

            vs your primed early opening statement the market Black Friday thread " Are we all going to die...again?" who's stirring the pot?
            Governments.

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            • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

              Quoting the standard death rate as a point of reference can keep folk relatively grounded.

              vs your primed early opening statement the market Black Friday thread " Are we all going to die...again?" who's stirring the pot?
              The WHO commentary was actually the starting point. Followed by Dr, Fauci.
              "Meanwhile, top US infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci said more data is needed before the US decides on a travel ban.
              “There is always the possibility of doing what the UK has done, namely block travel from South Africa and related countries,” Fauci said in an interview on CNN Friday.
              “That’s certainly something you think about and get prepared to do. You’re prepared to do everything you need to protect the American public. But you want to make sure there’s a basis for doing that.
              “Obviously as soon as we find out more information we’ll make a decision as quickly as we possibly can.”
              Fauci said US scientists would speak with South African counterparts on Friday.

              "Foreign minister Naledi Pandor said South Africa would engage with British authorities to try to get them to reconsider their decision."

              The political influences are already apparent. Sides are already being taken even though "we need to find out more information."

              Just an observation. The "messaging" has improved in advocating solutions to potential problems.

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              • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                Looks like this South African variant has the markets and many countries spooked. Are we all going to die...again?
                "You might be a king or a little street sweeper but sooner or later you dance with the reaper."

                Bill and Ted's Bogus Journey

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                • For those who geek out on the molecular stuff:

                  B.1.1.529
                  21K

                  https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

                  --will be interesting to see how this goes and competes with Delta.
                  Attached Files

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                  • Thanks for posting the mapping.
                    Am I reading it correctly that the strain didn’t develop out of all the recent dominant delta strains, but rather a much less common strain?
                    I wouldn’t have expected that and certainly less statistically probable. Of course with so many infections, even less common strains have plenty of hosts to help with trying out new options. The power of the genetic algorithm…

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post
                      For those who geek out on the molecular stuff:

                      B.1.1.529
                      21K

                      https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

                      --will be interesting to see how this goes and competes with Delta.
                      Interesting how effective vaccines and therapeutics are as well. I read the effectiveness
                      of these won’t have data for another 2 weeks or so.
                      Fully vaccinated in SA seems about 25%.
                      A lot of cards on the table and more to be delt.
                      About the only thing I can tell is this variant is highly contagious. Thanks for the info. Update as you please.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Tim View Post
                        Interesting how effective vaccines and therapeutics are as well.
                        Some of the newer therapeutics probably aren't as effective as initially thought. I think it was the Pfizer pill whose effectiveness has been shown to be lower than when first reported (in their press release).

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                        • Omicron is unique enough that folk have classified it as its own branch; not from Delta. It DOES have a bunch of mutations common to both Beta and Delta though and some are speculating whether this is another jump from a reservoir that allowed mixing as the total count in South Africa has been relatively low despite a low vaccination rate.

                          Genetic side concern: has both infectivity traits of Delta and vaccine escape of Beta along with new mutations within spike protein.

                          Clinical side evidence to date: presymtomatic stage
                          The two cases in Hong Kong showed spread across the hall during isolation on Day 8 of isolation between two pfizer vaccinated travelers (both at 6months).
                          60 of 600 passengers from SA tested positive upon arrival -presumed either vaccinated or 72 hour tested negative AND no symptoms attested.

                          vaccines: both pfizer and moderna have already coded beta and delta (but not both together) and done some small studies. both have said have capabilities to get out in 90-100 days once decided to move forward.

                          Therapeutics -
                          Monoclonal infusions affected. - unknown
                          Merck oral antivirals - revised RR reduction from 50% down to 30% on final trial data on high risk groups - not as good as MAB but still a tool -
                          Pfizer oral antivirals - TBD -initial very promising RR down 80% but anticipate revisions to this too.

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                          • New York Declares State of Emergency to Combat Omicron Variant (msn.com)

                            Seems somewhat premature. Does this honestly change anything rather than waiting to declare an emergency when there's an actual emergency? If there's that much red tape to be able to 'more quickly access critical supplies' then I'd focus more on that issue than emergency proclamations.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                              New York Declares State of Emergency to Combat Omicron Variant (msn.com)

                              Seems somewhat premature. Does this honestly change anything rather than waiting to declare an emergency when there's an actual emergency? If there's that much red tape to be able to 'more quickly access critical supplies' then I'd focus more on that issue than emergency proclamations.
                              Yeah. Typically most commob reason is to access federal funding. Stupid, but red tape is just that.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by StarTrekDoc View Post

                                Yeah. Typically most commob reason is to access federal funding. Stupid, but red tape is just that.
                                But there's no specific funding for this specific variant (that I'm aware of) yet so if it was about funding then every state would be doing the same thing.

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