Medical Discussion of Coronavirus

[snowcanyon]

CFR in my state is rising due to overburdened hospitals. While MCAB have made a big difference, it's not enough, and our CFR is now higher than prior to vaccines and MCAB. The stress on the health system here is creating a huge problem.

[Shant]

A study just came out saying that the risk of only myocarditis is 4x the risk of hospitalization from Covid in healthy young males.

But the risk of myocarditis from COVID is still ~100x the risk of myocarditis from the COVID vaccine. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2780548

[VentAlarm]

But the risk of myocarditis from COVID is still ~100x the risk of myocarditis from the COVID vaccine. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2780548

I have a hard time synthesizing this data with the other study. Obviously different cohorts, but presumably an admission for myocarditis due to Covid would be categorized as an admission related to Covid.

[Shant]

Can you please link the other study but I suspect you are comparing apples to oranges (risk of myocarditis is not the same as risk of hospitalization due to myocarditis etc).

[StarTrekDoc]

Also, I think it is intellectually dishonest to use a 100 year old precedent evaluating a mandated vaccine on something with a case fatality rate of 1/3 in a small, densely populated area as compared to something with a case fatality rate of ~1/200, probably closer to 1/1000-1/10,000 in certain populations across an entire massively geographically diverse country.

What you cited is just one of many cases reaffirmed by courts all the way up to the SC. Mandatory isolations. Mandatory vaccinations. None overturned.

There is a benefit of getting to herd immunity and that's the purpose. Delta clearly showing we need a higher rate and immunization is way forward to protect. Kids and 40s yo in hospitals with no good reason being there.

[burritos]

Because we are a constitutional government.

So should reverse all routine vaccine mandates for school then?

[burritos]

As legislated, not dictated by the king….I mean, president.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts

Does that include the Supreme Court?

[VentAlarm]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts

Does that include the Supreme Court?

What in the world are you talking about? The above case is the SC deciding that a law was constitutional. They weren’t legislating. As above, my primary concern is an executive branch legislating with a simple utterance. You can debate whether or not a vaccine mandate in this setting is constitutional, and certainly we will hear about it in the SC; my concern is that it seems like a massive overreach of presidential authority. This is literally why congress exists.

[VentAlarm]

Can you please link the other study but I suspect you are comparing apples to oranges (risk of myocarditis is not the same as risk of hospitalization due to myocarditis etc).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

[burritos]

What in the world are you talking about? The above case is the SC deciding that a law was constitutional. They weren’t legislating. As above, my primary concern is an executive branch legislating with a simple utterance. You can debate whether or not a vaccine mandate in this setting is constitutional, and certainly we will hear about it in the SC; my concern is that it seems like a massive overreach of presidential authority. This is literally why congress exists.

Ok, that's reasonable.

[CalMD]

In California, the vaccine mandate is legal and enforceable based on Health and Safety Codes 120140, 120175, and 120195. I assume other States are similar, so there is no lack of legislation.

[artemis]

As to no mandate, you know what happens if there is no mandate in healthcare. One system will not mandate it because it will cause depletion of staff to the competing health system because they don't have the mandate. The other system will also not do it because the first one is not doing it. The patients and workers in both system will benefit in the end if all had mandate but no one wants to be the first

My state has had more than its fair share of COVID foolishness, but one thing I am really proud of is that the CEOs of every hospital system in Omaha plus the CEO of the hospital system in Lincoln all got together and agreed on a vaccine mandate that would be the same at every one of those healthcare systems. They recognized the need to avoid a vaccine Prisoner's Dilemma situation.

[FIREshrink]

Also, I think it is intellectually dishonest to use a 100 year old precedent evaluating a mandated vaccine on something with a case fatality rate of 1/3 in a small, densely populated area as compared to something with a case fatality rate of ~1/200, probably closer to 1/1000-1/10,000 in certain populations across an entire massively geographically diverse country.

1/500 of the entire population has already died of COVID and the pandemic is far from over. Even if every American has gotten covid (which is patently absurd) the death rate is 2-20x those figures. In the end the CFR today is still 1.5%, and the IFR (which is likely what you meant) is probably at least 0.5%. For huge swaths of the population this disease has an IFR of 1% or much more: the poor, the elderly, the obese, diabetics, etc. It’s been clear from the outset this disease was going to be very nasty to America because it picked on fat, sick, poor people, of which America has a plethora.

But anyway, I agree that the SCOTUS precedent is not reliable, at least as applies to a society wide mandate.

[VentAlarm]

1/500 of the entire population has already died of COVID and the pandemic is far from over. Even if every American has gotten covid (which is patently absurd) the death rate is 2-20x those figures. In the end the CFR today is still 1.5%, and the IFR (which is likely what you meant) is probably at least 0.5%. For huge swaths of the population this disease has an IFR of 1% or much more: the poor, the elderly, the obese, diabetics, etc. It’s been clear from the outset this disease was going to be very nasty to America because it picked on fat, sick, poor people, of which America has a plethora.

But anyway, I agree that the SCOTUS precedent is not reliable, at least as applies to a society wide mandate.

Sure. But that wasn’t the point I was trying to make. The fatality rate in some subsets is incredibly high. My dad is in his 80s and immunosuppressed. His expected mortality would be through the roof. He got the vaccine as soon as it was available, same with the booster. But the expected mortality for a healthy 20 year old (who’s not pregnant or immunosuppressed) approaches 0. I was simply attempting to point out that the concept of a blanket application for all Americans has some issues. A 70 year old in a nursing home, a 60 year old smoker who lived in Manhattan and a 22 year old who works on a family farm have very different risk profiles and it seems illogical (at least to me) to demand the same policy get applied to all of them.

Regarding CFR vs. IFR, kind of depends how in the weeds you want to get on whether CFR is defined as a diagnosed cohort or ill cohort. I meant symptomatic cases not tested, not asymptomatic infections. My brother got Covid not too long ago. His kids all got a febrile illness but were not tested. When you see the cumulative CFR of 1.6, this isn’t part of the denominator.

[snowcanyon]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....30.21262866v1

Why would you give equal weight to a preprint as to a peer-reviewed article?