Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Medical Discussion of Coronavirus

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

    You originally asked when the drop off in demand would occur. I wrote that it already had. The dropoff is not universal. It occurred first in areas whose common characteristic is their political identification.

    Most assuredly I wish this was not the most important "overlay." I am not making this up. I want to reach herd immunity or whatever maximal level of vaccination we can/need to move on. So how to craft the public health effort to achieve? If we've learned anything in the last year about public health it's that messaging, and the messenger, matter. Example: a recent focus group conducted by Republican pollster Frank Lutz with Republican vaccine hesitant or refusers showed they uniformly reject Fauci as an expert. Knowing this is important. So we need to put someone else out there to drive up vaccine acceptance in this group - the group with the highest rate of vaccine refusal.
    There are no other forms of stratification which have a lesser percent of vaccination than red states?

    Come on. Of course there are.

    You're going to get this thread locked because you can't play nice.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

      There are no other forms of stratification which have a lesser percent of vaccination than red states?

      Come on. Of course there are.
      OK, you tell me. We have access to the same data:

      http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-cont...124.pdf#page=3

      Survey of 1227 adults March 3-8 2021.

      Please look at page 23

      If a vaccine for the coronavirus is made available to you, will you choose to be vaccinated or not? If you have already received the vaccine, please say so.

      No/unsure percentage:

      National average: 33%
      Republican: 44%

      Is there any demographic listed (age, education, race/ethnicity, income, political party, gender) which is higher than 44%? I’ll save you the time: no (well: only political ones, but I wouldn’t want to be accused of beating a dead horse).

      I have no political agenda and if you think you can infer one you’re wrong. Tim asked a question, I answered it. Vaccine supply now outstrips demand in many areas, predominantly red, because red voters have the highest rate of vaccine hesitancy. We see this between states and within states, including mine (hard to get a vaccine appointment in Seattle... easy in Spokane).

      My goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. How are we planning to reach those ten states, all of which voted red in 2020, with the highest percentage of vaccine refusals? It’s going to take different messaging and different messengers than has worked so far.

      How are we planning to get the nearly half of red voters vaccinated? How about the 1/3 of Latinos? There are several demographics with high rates of vaccine refusal and it makes sense to me to start with the largest groups and those with the highest rate of vaccine hesitancy.

      Comment


      • "Survey of 1227 adults March 3-8 2021."

        This is the lazy person's way of data analysis, relying on a survey. Hard data is available. Download it and use it. By county for every state in the country. If you actually use it, you see some peculiar items. Highest rate of covid infections are coming from some counties that are actually "LOW vulnerability" and they have a 40% vaccination rate. Oakland County Michigan

        If you want data, go get it. Merge it with the political or whatever other indicator is desired. We are past the point of models.

        https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
        https://covidactnow.org/us/michigan-mi/?s=1783703
        https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

        The speculations on a university survey is fools gold. This is not intended as personal. If you wish to use CDC or World data etc. that is fine. I would be very interested in actionable data. Rural and urban is one statistic that I have not seen. We could vaccinate all the cities, but if with skip the rural areas the pandemic will come back. The numbers for herd immunity might look great, but I have a gut feel that the mobility would lead to flare ups. That is only my hypothesis. It is not valid, but that is how it spread before. I never dreamed that the pandemic would hit some rural locations so hard. Data is available. I doubt it is worth the effort to overlay election results. Page 23 means nothing. I would not consider this to be science, data or a basis for action or opinions.

        https://www.marist.edu/-/president-s...hauvin-verdict

        I did not attend the Race and Justice Town Hall. That is not intended to be an opinion. Marist can publish and have whatever discussions they want. Just not relevant for decision making or conclusions.


        Comment


        • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post
          OK, you tell me. We have access to the same data:

          http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-cont...124.pdf#page=3

          Survey of 1227 adults March 3-8 2021.

          Please look at page 23

          If a vaccine for the coronavirus is made available to you, will you choose to be vaccinated or not? If you have already received the vaccine, please say so.

          No/unsure percentage:

          National average: 33%
          Republican: 44%

          Is there any demographic listed (age, education, race/ethnicity, income, political party, gender) which is higher than 44%? I’ll save you the time: no (well: only political ones, but I wouldn’t want to be accused of beating a dead horse).

          I have no political agenda and if you think you can infer one you’re wrong. Tim asked a question, I answered it. Vaccine supply now outstrips demand in many areas, predominantly red, because red voters have the highest rate of vaccine hesitancy. We see this between states and within states, including mine (hard to get a vaccine appointment in Seattle... easy in Spokane).

          My goal is to get as many people vaccinated as possible. How are we planning to reach those ten states, all of which voted red in 2020, with the highest percentage of vaccine refusals? It’s going to take different messaging and different messengers than has worked so far.

          How are we planning to get the nearly half of red voters vaccinated? How about the 1/3 of Latinos? There are several demographics with high rates of vaccine refusal and it makes sense to me to start with the largest groups and those with the highest rate of vaccine hesitancy.
          so you entire premise of what we should do for the entire country and which groups are more likely to get the vaccine rests on a 1200 person survey. Does that seem logical? Do you think this survey can be generalized for the whole country?

          Comment


          • I have not read the survey. I live in a very red state. I do not know any vaccine refusers. I do know plenty of very Republican citizens who are vaccinated. Do not confuse state of domicile and political views with IQ. Watch the political back and forth neither Johanna or I want to shut down this thread.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

              so you entire premise of what we should do for the entire country and which groups are more likely to get the vaccine rests on a 1200 person survey. Does that seem logical? Do you think this survey can be generalized for the whole country?
              I think you should simply provide some data so we can identify the demographic groups most at risk of vaccine hesitancy, and tailor message accordingly.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by FIREshrink View Post

                I think you should simply provide some data so we can identify the demographic groups most at risk of vaccine hesitancy, and tailor message accordingly.
                Three actual data sources were provided. Unfortunately it is not worth the effort to slice and dice the data by all the characteristics. Let alone make required public health decisions base upon political affiliation. No thank you. The data can be downloaded. Feel free to build a database.
                Last edited by Tim; 04-26-2021, 08:08 AM.

                Comment


                • I don't understand what people expected, like did you think we were going to give 3-4 million vaccines per day until 100 % of people had them? There's going to be a curve, just like infections. At some point you run out of people to inject. 54% of people over 18 have gotten at least 1 shot with 82% of people over 65. That is pretty dang good.

                  It's not like we dropped from 3 million per day to 500k per day. It's basic math. It was going to drop at some point. We are either at herd immunity when considering prior infections or very close and shortly will be there. Anyone who wants a shot can get them. If the amount was dropping sharply then maybe sure we have a problem. The curve doesn't look like that to me. It looks like a gentle downturn that is to be expected. If we keep this up for another couple weeks at this rate with a continued slope of decreased immunizations we are essentially set and would do like 25+ million more in that time period.

                  There are lots of demographic groups who feature a higher percentage of hesitancy than the general public, that's how any stat works. You have people above and below the mean. I think alienating them or poking fun at them is probably not going to help matters.

                  The issue is narratives continue to shift. We set a goal, essentially get there and then redefine the "problem." We say we want X % of people vaccinated overall and in Y age group. We get close to that, so we decide to shift the problem and use it politically to attack people not on the same side as us, even though we're near our original goal.

                  We're doing well.
                  Last edited by Panscan; 04-26-2021, 09:15 AM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post

                    Please, ppl. Let’s not bring political parties into this as both sides have questioned the vaccine process. This thread has gone on too long and been too helpful to have to shut it down at this point. Let’s keep politics out of it.
                    My reply here is to note perspective.

                    Your point is well taken - politics are real, and they certainly impact this topic. That doesn't mean we can't set boundaries and keep it out of this thread, but I do think it's wise to remember, and acknowledge (at least on some level), that politics impact this area of life too.

                    I've re-read some (more) of this thread, and I hope it can stay here for years to come. I hope to re-read it in many years, after this has passed, and see how the conversation unfolded (medical, social, politics, etc) all included. I think it's fascinating to have such a record of this communities thoughts, written, and with clear dates. Perhaps it'll be too much to ever really digest or look at historically, but I've enjoyed folks contributions, and contributions and efforts to keep it going. So thanks for those efforts.


                    Comment


                    • So, as we see new covid related strains...

                      and as the world ramps up production of vaccines...

                      I saw this thread on twitter this morning:
                      https://twitter.com/timmy315/status/1386668893629042691

                      About the US DPA, etc... but this number struck me:
                      "This year the world is working to make near 14 billion COVID19 vaccines in addition to those other 4 billion."

                      ... that's a lot of vaccines. Do folks have any idea or guess if this will continue to grow and grow due to the number of strains, rate of mutation, need for additional boosters, etc?
                      Last edited by adventure; 04-26-2021, 10:37 AM. Reason: typo. Had used vaccinations instead of vaccines.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Panscan View Post
                        I don't understand what people expected, like did you think we were going to give 3-4 million vaccines per day until 100 % of people had them? There's going to be a curve, just like infections. At some point you run out of people to inject. 54% of people over 18 have gotten at least 1 shot with 82% of people over 65. That is pretty dang good.

                        It's not like we dropped from 3 million per day to 500k per day. It's basic math. It was going to drop at some point. We are either at herd immunity when considering prior infections or very close and shortly will be there. Anyone who wants a shot can get them. If the amount was dropping sharply then maybe sure we have a problem. The curve doesn't look like that to me. It looks like a gentle downturn that is to be expected. If we keep this up for another couple weeks at this rate with a continued slope of decreased immunizations we are essentially set and would do like 25+ million more in that time period.

                        There are lots of demographic groups who feature a higher percentage of hesitancy than the general public, that's how any stat works. You have people above and below the mean. I think alienating them or poking fun at them is probably not going to help matters.

                        The issue is narratives continue to shift. We set a goal, essentially get there and then redefine the "problem." We say we want X % of people vaccinated overall and in Y age group. We get close to that, so we decide to shift the problem and use it politically to attack people not on the same side as us, even though we're near our original goal.

                        We're doing well.
                        I mostly agree with you, except we are not probably close to herd immunity yet. Would need to get kids vaccinated first. But anyway the biggest risk now is large pools of unvaccinated people and to the extent those people like associate we want to encourage vaccination no matter what it takes (short of compulsion). If we know Chinatown has 50% vaccine hesitancy we need chinese language and culture specific programming to change that. This doesn't seem controversial.

                        I agree we're doing fantastic, certainly the best large country in the world. I have always thought the point was to flatten the curve, not to prevent all infections, and post vaccination for me and Mrs Fireshrink we are living our lives, even with our unvaccinated children - carefully, respectfully, but living it. We go to indoor restaurants for the first time in a year, we got on a plane, kids go to the store with their friends.

                        The only catch is these d*** variants, and the scientific uncertainty about their prospects for virulence or vaccine evasion. In my view the continued evolution into more and more aggressive forms really isn't completely expected behavior and challenges some previous presumptions about pandemic response we made a year ago. For instance if the new Texas variant is indeed substantially less vulnerable to vaccine antibodies in vivo (not just in vitro) then we all have a vested interest in how Texas manages its pandemic - vaccine rates, confinements, hospital capacity, other public health measures. That is really my only point about where we need to focus our PH resources now. Where is vaccine penetrance lowest, and how do we fix that, because we are not out of the woods until we are all out of the woods (this applies globally as well as domestically).

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by adventure View Post
                          Do folks have any idea or guess if this will continue to grow and grow due to the number of strains, rate of mutation, need for additional boosters, etc?
                          Pharma will push for boosters. I think it remains to be seen if they'll actually be needed or not.

                          Comment


                          • FIREshrink
                            Spot on.
                            The are “groups” and pockets and neighborhoods that primarily culturally seem to be hesitant. Even with the loss of a relative, the anxiety from the fear messaging leaves them undecided. Anecdotally, I have convinced 5 out of 30 or so that really really need to get vaccinated. Anything “Covid” provokes a deer in the headlight response.
                            Vaccine is safer than taking a chance is a tough sell. Even with the loss of a relative, the default is “I understand. I’ll think about it.” The dominos fall when acquaintances or a parent start getting it. Peer pressure is the most effective.
                            PH needs to target by the zip code. “Safer” needs to be the message. The seeds of doubt have been planted.
                            25 to go.
                            Contemplating a sign. “No vaccine no beer”.
                            Might get it done in a week.

                            Comment


                            • At this point, I think the easiest way to get more people vaccinated is to expand it to children. Trying to convince people to change their opinions is near impossible. It requires them to admit that they were once wrong -- good luck with that.

                              Unfortunately we also aren't going to stop new variants until the entire world is vaccinated or immune... and we are a long long way from reaching that goal.

                              Comment


                              • There are two groups whose minds don't need to be changed. One is those who "don't want to be the guinea pigs". As time passes evidence of safety will accumulate and eventually tip the balance.

                                The other group is the group who thinks they don't "need" the vaccine, who can likely be swayed by convenience if the available options are proof of vaccination or proof of a negative brain swab. If left with a choice between paying out of pocket + an unpleasant experience each time they want to travel or go to a mass event I suspect a one-time (well two-time) free vaccination in the arm will suddenly seem more appealing.

                                The hardcore Andrew Wakefield 5G Bill Gates tracking group will have to wait for deprogramming which may never come which unfortunately does cluster enough for outbreaks like measles vaccine resistance.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X