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It gets even more complicated when the "reserve" held by CDC turns out to be an illusion or not.
Statistics can be made to tell whatever narrative desired. Large shipments last week, large shipment next week, on hand supply for second does during the next week or two as a followup to the large initial release are all variables that would need to be understood. The big release was in week 1. Conclusions are drawn that may actually be misleading. I would strongly be opposed to reducing supply based on poor statistics (which was actually considered). I could support a reduction of supply to avoid inventory that could be better used. Fill each supply chain to its actually capacity and then allocate in the shortage situation. The algorithm for allocation is basically similar to the match process for residencies. Limited spots and a finite pool of applicants. Highest priority gets matched. We certainly don't have agreement on the weighting to be applied to the second shot vs first shot. The priorities and benefits for shot 2# will be different for each class (1A, 1B, 1C, 2A etc.). The stats simply point out that a delivery issue needs to be addressed. Changing the supply distribution rules without the algorithms can be harmful. Shut off California is not a solution. Harmful to citizens and I certainly don't think West Virginia deserves the highest supply just because they used it. I do think incentivizing poor performance will yield improvements in the process. Not sure penalizing high performing states will help either.
My small brain can't imagine the algorithm that would work. Likely the algorithm itself would change as we progress. Sounds like a math problem for FLP.
Hey, Ticket Master might have been used as a registration system. Outside the box is needed because we have never faced a task like this. It will work out.
Statistics can be made to tell whatever narrative desired. Large shipments last week, large shipment next week, on hand supply for second does during the next week or two as a followup to the large initial release are all variables that would need to be understood. The big release was in week 1. Conclusions are drawn that may actually be misleading. I would strongly be opposed to reducing supply based on poor statistics (which was actually considered). I could support a reduction of supply to avoid inventory that could be better used. Fill each supply chain to its actually capacity and then allocate in the shortage situation. The algorithm for allocation is basically similar to the match process for residencies. Limited spots and a finite pool of applicants. Highest priority gets matched. We certainly don't have agreement on the weighting to be applied to the second shot vs first shot. The priorities and benefits for shot 2# will be different for each class (1A, 1B, 1C, 2A etc.). The stats simply point out that a delivery issue needs to be addressed. Changing the supply distribution rules without the algorithms can be harmful. Shut off California is not a solution. Harmful to citizens and I certainly don't think West Virginia deserves the highest supply just because they used it. I do think incentivizing poor performance will yield improvements in the process. Not sure penalizing high performing states will help either.
My small brain can't imagine the algorithm that would work. Likely the algorithm itself would change as we progress. Sounds like a math problem for FLP.
Hey, Ticket Master might have been used as a registration system. Outside the box is needed because we have never faced a task like this. It will work out.
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