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Not even done with 1A here. Very vaccine constrained throughout San Diego. 
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Free vaccines are being given out for a week here for anyone over 65+.
The only problem is the "Providers" are not doing it. You see the hospitals and pharmacies are deciding which "event" is most publicity. Invitation only, at the choice of the "provider". I hope they get an invitation, no sign ups allowed.Comment
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Can someone help me understand the data from the Pfizer trial? keep hearing people refer to 50% protection agains COVID after 1 dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but looking at the data it appears this could downplay the true effectiveness. In the vaccine group between the 1st and 2nd doses, there were 39 COVID cases and 82 in the placebo group. This is the 52% reduction people are quoting…BUT the authors state the effects of the vaccine were not evident until Day 12 after injection.
From the study:
“The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization.”
The 52% reduction would appear to include the 35 cases that happened in the vaccine group on days 0-12. It appears that there were around 4 cases of COVID after day 12 in the vaccine group and around 43 cases in the control group. Wouldn’t that be a 90% reduction? Also there were 0 severe cases between the 1st and 2nd doses (Table S5 in the supplementary data). I know the study wasn’t designed to evaluate only one dose and this observed effect may not be accurate, but it appears the “50% reduction” being quoted could underestimate the effectiveness of one dose if you want to know the effectiveness after day 12 post injection. Am I interpreting the data correctly? I think this could be a big topic of discussion in the coming months and area for further study since when injections open to the general public there could be a significant subset of people who do not followup for the second dose.
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I agree, I'm 12 days out from dose 1 and suspect I am close to fully protected. But, we don't know for sure what would happen after only a single dose after more than 21 days, because it wasn't studied - would the immunity endure?Comment
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I had the exact same thoughts. Thanks for writing out my thoughts so coherently!Can someone help me understand the data from the Pfizer trial? keep hearing people refer to 50% protection agains COVID after 1 dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but looking at the data it appears this could downplay the true effectiveness. In the vaccine group between the 1st and 2nd doses, there were 39 COVID cases and 82 in the placebo group. This is the 52% reduction people are quoting…BUT the authors state the effects of the vaccine were not evident until Day 12 after injection.
From the study:
“The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization.”
The 52% reduction would appear to include the 35 cases that happened in the vaccine group on days 0-12. It appears that there were around 4 cases of COVID after day 12 in the vaccine group and around 43 cases in the control group. Wouldn’t that be a 90% reduction? Also there were 0 severe cases between the 1st and 2nd doses (Table S5 in the supplementary data). I know the study wasn’t designed to evaluate only one dose and this observed effect may not be accurate, but it appears the “50% reduction” being quoted could underestimate the effectiveness of one dose if you want to know the effectiveness after day 12 post injection. Am I interpreting the data correctly? I think this could be a big topic of discussion in the coming months and area for further study since when injections open to the general public there could be a significant subset of people who do not followup for the second dose.
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This has been mentioned by others before (not here). It's certainly a reasonable thought and it's possibly more based on early phase trials looking at maybe Ab levels when I believe the true immunity is through memory T cells (pure speculation). This would essentially double the number of vaccine doses available.Can someone help me understand the data from the Pfizer trial? keep hearing people refer to 50% protection agains COVID after 1 dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but looking at the data it appears this could downplay the true effectiveness. In the vaccine group between the 1st and 2nd doses, there were 39 COVID cases and 82 in the placebo group. This is the 52% reduction people are quoting…BUT the authors state the effects of the vaccine were not evident until Day 12 after injection.
From the study:
“The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization.”
The 52% reduction would appear to include the 35 cases that happened in the vaccine group on days 0-12. It appears that there were around 4 cases of COVID after day 12 in the vaccine group and around 43 cases in the control group. Wouldn’t that be a 90% reduction? Also there were 0 severe cases between the 1st and 2nd doses (Table S5 in the supplementary data). I know the study wasn’t designed to evaluate only one dose and this observed effect may not be accurate, but it appears the “50% reduction” being quoted could underestimate the effectiveness of one dose if you want to know the effectiveness after day 12 post injection. Am I interpreting the data correctly? I think this could be a big topic of discussion in the coming months and area for further study since when injections open to the general public there could be a significant subset of people who do not followup for the second dose.
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The data, just as the previous poster showed. But will it endure?
Data also suggests about 1/4 of all recipients after dose 2 will have a significant reaction that could keep them out of work for a day. I had to shuffle some things but am now scheduled for dose 2 23 days after dose 1, on a Friday instead of a Wednesday.Comment
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We need to see the data of one shot only; and I don't know if there was sufficient #s of those within either study and follow their course. There's going to be a fair amount of them now that we have 2M+ doses in people and I bet a number of them won't be getting the 2nd shot -- follow their course. The data will be forthcoming. Until then, the current regimen remains #2 dose as study was done.
We MAY go the shingrix route in the near future if we don't get the rampup supply addressed. The wild thing we're still vaccine constrained here; not final mile distribution that is being reported 12M distributed by only 2M administered.
No reason not to be vaccine constrained now that EUA is given. If sourcing materials remain an issue per Pfizer, we (national we) should use ALL means possible to break that logjam.
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Can someone help me understand the data from the Pfizer trial? keep hearing people refer to 50% protection agains COVID after 1 dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but looking at the data it appears this could downplay the true effectiveness. In the vaccine group between the 1st and 2nd doses, there were 39 COVID cases and 82 in the placebo group. This is the 52% reduction people are quoting…BUT the authors state the effects of the vaccine were not evident until Day 12 after injection.
From the study:
“The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization.”
The 52% reduction would appear to include the 35 cases that happened in the vaccine group on days 0-12. It appears that there were around 4 cases of COVID after day 12 in the vaccine group and around 43 cases in the control group. Wouldn’t that be a 90% reduction? Also there were 0 severe cases between the 1st and 2nd doses (Table S5 in the supplementary data). I know the study wasn’t designed to evaluate only one dose and this observed effect may not be accurate, but it appears the “50% reduction” being quoted could underestimate the effectiveness of one dose if you want to know the effectiveness after day 12 post injection. Am I interpreting the data correctly? I think this could be a big topic of discussion in the coming months and area for further study since when injections open to the general public there could be a significant subset of people who do not followup for the second dose.
I had been meaning to look up the study data - thanks for posting this!
You’re right, the single shot day 0-21 52% efficacy does obscure that day 0-11 the vaccine had really no efficacy while 12-21 it was 90%. That’s much more informative.
I’m on Day 10...
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The provider logjam for 1B seems to have been broken (at least a little bit).
The county health department has opened up locations for the 1A and 1B eligible people to schedule appointments.
Success! Tuesday at 4 and 4:10 for the spouse and I.
A quick check is that several others are running short.
But the process has been removed from the providers making their own rules. Maybe it was "unintentional" but it was intentional.Comment
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This video is a bit tedious for the first few minutes, before it transforms to gold. A good explanation about treatment in the viral replication vs. pulmonary/inflammatory phases of COVID. Any thoughts? Good info is hard to come by and a bit clouded with our current dependence on drug company data at this time.Comment
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