Medical Discussion of Coronavirus

[fatlittlepig]

Oh, you found the utah plan ;-) This is what is happening here. No masking policy, kids all in school ( except our district thankfully). Our percent of positive tests is around 14% so we're doing great! Well on our way to immunity. Now death counts are increasing too but nbd, right? After all, everyone here believes families are forever so you can just see grandma after you die.

Read more carefully. Focused protection.

[Tim]

Problems with the swedish / herd immunity plan:
1. Unknown what threshold IS herd immunity
2. Unknown lasting immunity duration via natural inoculation
3. Unable to isolate completely the at-risk populations from carriers

--pox parties worked, this isn't the same unfortunately.

Just devil’s advocate. Considering the current state of the “science” if the USA had the current infection, hospitalization and mortality rates:
Would and consideration be given to a lockdown and the related costs? “Fear of the unknown” and “recency” bias seem to play into judgements.
Assuming a “fresh start” (avoiding the sunk cost fallacy), I would speculate the path would be tilted towards protecting vulnerable populations.
1) We have testing
2) We have some treatments
3) Starting from zero, perceptions would be different. Realistically, the fear factor is much lower.
4) The unknown is whether effective vaccines are reality. Without a vaccine, that drastically changes the “authoritarian” measures needed.

[cyrano7]

what is the harm in continuing the status quo for a bit longer? probably won't help, but it certainly won't hurt! so glad to hear that you are ok.

That’s what I’m going to do. I’d say the harm is a just miss holding my newborn son and kissing my wife and kids. I realize that’s a small price to pay to be safe, but wasn’t sure when I’m truly safe to do those things. Maybe I’ll give it another week or so.

[StarTrekDoc]

Tim having another lockdown simply isn't in the cards anymore. There is no appetite for that extreme measure almost anywhere....even in liberal land of California. There is the middle.ground or using all on protections as much as feasibly can and do what we laid out to do in April.

With staged reopenings it's slow but consistent progress has been made with sustained low infection rates even in high dense population areas.

Bay area is a pretty good example where San Francisco which son often gets beat down by large vulnerable homeless population had a sustained positive rate of less than 3% and per 100k rate less than 3. That's pretty solid .

Focused protection works until the entry point is broken.....see WH case study. All it takes is one entry into a protected isolated group like a nursing home. This is what caused the losses in Sweden too and higher death rates to it's same cohorts neighbors. There is no true selected isolation.

[fatlittlepig]

Oh, you found the utah plan ;-) This is what is happening here. No masking policy, kids all in school ( except our district thankfully). Our percent of positive tests is around 14% so we're doing great! Well on our way to immunity. Now death counts are increasing too but nbd, right? After all, everyone here believes families are forever so you can just see grandma after you die.

So you think kids shouldn’t be in school?

[FIREshrink]

It isn't possible to isolate the at risk. Between 40-70% of US adults are at risk if you include obesity. Open up schools, Who is going to teach the students? Minimize staff rotation at nursing homes, have the authors any fricking clue about US nursing home economics, privatization, salaries, how staffing works - they all work multiple jobs. Pcr test every visitor, right, because our testing capability is so robust.

I'm not in favor of a lockdown but opening up sporting events, concerts, bars, restaurants without restrictions will absolutely lead to a surge in infections and hospitalizations which will overwhelm our health care system. If we follow their advice then I suggest each of the authors sign a declaration that if we're down to one hospital bed for two patients that they agree to give up theirs to someone else.

[fatlittlepig]

It isn't possible to isolate the at risk. Between 40-70% of US adults are at risk if you include obesity. Open up schools, Who is going to teach the students?.

teachers

[StarTrekDoc]

I would like to believe Minn reflects some balance of America overall - Perhaps Colorado is becoming more that representation

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/...d-19-workload/
--Teachers in Minn. response rate 1 in 6. Not bad return rate.

[FIREshrink]

teachers

You have some special authority with teacher's unions? Pray tell.

[fatlittlepig]

We have an extremely bipolar virus that is largely benign in the younger, healthy population and is malignant in the older and frail population - there must be a way to exploit this characteristic.

[fatlittlepig]

You have some special authority with teacher's unions? Pray tell.

From your post you seem to agree with them.

[snowcanyon]

I live in a non union state, and many, many teachers just quit. This isn't just a union issue, it's that we haven't done enough (and frankly the burden is on parents and schools systems to do this) to either make school safe enough, particularly for older teachers and those with comorbidities,or feel safe enough, for many teachers to return.

Notably, many immigrant/poor/minority families are choosing to keep their kids home because they live in multigenerational households and don't want older relatives to die. While the current "just make teachers teach" plan may be working in some affluent or rural areas, it's certainly failing the students who really, really need school, and many who really want school.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-schools-reopening.html

[StarTrekDoc]

Private HS -- blended online/in-person schools for either to be done - lots of flexibility. Daughter has 2 of 7 teachers teaching solely remotely due to their health concerns and school made accommodations to this cause worthy teachers.

Some students elected 100% online too for reasons snowcanyon mentioned too. The good thing is the school allowed options during this difficult time.

Many/Most public schools don't/won't/can't have such flexibility though for multitudes of reasons. It's not so simple as - let the kids back into school. they gotta learn.

[Rando]

Really good discussion on pediatric COVID-19, schools and preventive measures in general. It's 2 hours long (I listened to it on a long car ride).

https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep315

[Tim]

I live in a non union state, and many, many teachers just quit. This isn't just a union issue, it's that we haven't done enough (and frankly the burden is on parents and schools systems to do this) to either make school safe enough, particularly for older teachers and those with comorbidities,or feel safe enough, for many teachers to return.
Notably, many immigrant/poor/minority families are choosing to keep their kids home because they live in multigenerational households and don't want older relatives to die. While the current "just make teachers teach" plan may be working in some affluent or rural areas, it's certainly failing the students who really, really need school, and many who really want school.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/n...reopening.html

Ramping over to "social issues" here. Not everyone has the same "advantages" or "disadvantages". The problems of some of our public schools existed before Covid-19.