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Crazy idea: flattening the curve

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  • Crazy idea: flattening the curve

    What if there is a federally sponsored week long party across the US. Everyone else stays home. Only 18-30 year olds are invited, kissing and coughing encouraged. Yes, young people are affected too, but our health system can handle that. Slowly, people are reintroduced, one decade of age per week, or two weeks, or whatever the course is. Hopefully, there is some amount of herd immunity that will slow down spread, and some controlled distribution as to not overwhelmed the health system... And no, I would not qualify age-wise to attend this party.

  • #2
    I don't see how that particular scenario really benefits.

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    • #3
      The initial US figures reported by the CDC show around 5% of that age group needs ventilation so no we couldn't handle it. Younger people get really, really sick, it's just that they are more likely to recover than die.

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      • #4
        The majority of cases + in my state are 20-30.

        Its no coincidence that the bars and beaches have been packed up until this week.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Shant View Post
          The initial US figures reported by the CDC show around 5% of that age group needs ventilation so no we couldn't handle it. Younger people get really, really sick, it's just that they are more likely to recover than die.
          data please

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          • #6
            US data and conclusions drawn off it are useless without widespread testing. I don't think the chinese data shows that at all.

            People who were tested early were likely very symptomatic cases. Really sick people are really sick, regardless of age.

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            • #7
              I knew someone would ask for it, I shouldn't have been so lazy. Also it was ICU rather than vents my bad.

              https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w

              There are about 100k vents in the US (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ic/5032523002/) what's the math? Number in that age group is somewhere between 40-50M (https://www.kff.org/other/state-indi...tedDistributio ns=adults-19-25--adults-26-34&selectedRows=%7B"wrapups":%7B"united-states":%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B"colId":"Locatio n","sort":"asc"%7D). Look at the number of severe cases already reported in that age group and tell me just how rosy the projections have to be for 100k vents to be enough for the, what, 40-50M?, people in that age group, assuming every last vent gets repurposed for them.
              ​​​

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              • #8
                Does anyone have a link to that detailed early report breaking down the South Korea cases by age for hospitalization, ICU and ventilation rates? It was before I started saving key links.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Shant View Post
                  I knew someone would ask for it, I shouldn't have been so lazy. Also it was ICU rather than vents my bad.

                  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6912e2_w

                  There are about 100k vents in the US (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ic/5032523002/) what's the math? Number in that age group is somewhere between 40-50M (https://www.kff.org/other/state-indi...tedDistributio ns=adults-19-25--adults-26-34&selectedRows=%7B"wrapups":%7B"united-states":%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B"colId":"Locatio n","sort":"asc"%7D). Look at the number of severe cases already reported in that age group and tell me just how rosy the projections have to be for 100k vents to be enough for the, what, 40-50M?, people in that age group, assuming every last vent gets repurposed for them.
                  ​​​
                  I don't see how that supports what you claimed. I see a 20-44 age range of 2-4 % for ICU admission, which is different than 18-30 and also again likely drastically skewed by early testing occurring only in symptomatic patients and does not match the data coming from other countries with more available testing.

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                  • #10
                    This isn't chickenpox parties. It's a bit more aggressive than that.
                    Older folk many have faced death on different occasions and they will do their thing, but most if they draw spades are accepting of that. Not so of my younger patients--they are polar opposites -- either scared with anxiety driven concerns on impact on family on multiple fronts vs invincible - it'll just knock me down a little like a flu mentality and disturbed that they can't go to club casino this week

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by youngDoc View Post
                      Only 18-30 year olds are invited, kissing and coughing encouraged.
                      I can't even get a federally mandated date because I am also aged out.
                      $1 saved = >$1 earned. ✓

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                        I don't see how that supports what you claimed. I see a 20-44 age range of 2-4 % for ICU admission, which is different than 18-30 and also again likely drastically skewed by early testing occurring only in symptomatic patients and does not match the data coming from other countries with more available testing.
                        Agreed, I probably should have been more explicit that I was correcting it when I posted.

                        What I have not been able to locate again is an early report breaking down the patients needing hospitalization, ICU and vents by smaller age cohorts. I think it was for the Korea outbreak but could have been one of the outbreaks in China. What that appeared to show was a smooth curve with risks reducing by age but you had to get down very close to age early 20s before the hospitals would not be overwhelmed by the sheer number.

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                        • #13
                          Vox just published a detailed breakdown by age. Early data etc etc but a good synopsis of the current state of knowledge. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/211900...-deaths-by-age

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by WCInovice View Post
                            The majority of cases + in my state are 20-30.

                            Its no coincidence that the bars and beaches have been packed up until this week.
                            Majority. Dang...

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Shant View Post
                              Vox just published a detailed breakdown by age. Early data etc etc but a good synopsis of the current state of knowledge. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/211900...-deaths-by-age
                              20% hospitalization rate in 30-49 age range freaks me out.

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