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Hypothesis: Children are the true "Super Spreaders"

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  • Hypothesis: Children are the true "Super Spreaders"

    There are several stories of transmission by super spreaders with the current outbreak and for other infectious disease outbreaks.

    What do experts say: wash your hands, don't touch your face, don't interact closely with others (social distancing).

    Children don't routinely wash their hands, are always touching their faces, and play closely with each other.

    Children produce copious amounts of mucus when sick and they don't have good hygiene. They frequently wipe their noses with their hands and proceed to touch many surfaces. They interact in close quarters at daycare/school and often bring home diseases, spreading them to the rest of family.

    Often, super spreaders are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms (Typhoid Mary). Children (0-9) rarely die of Covid19. They probably have a milder form of the disease (cough, runny nose) making them less likely to be tested.

    Theory: Why do colds/flu's decrease in the summer? Maybe it's because children play outside more, interacting at farther distances and touching fewer "high touch areas" compared to inside.

    Why is there such a large outbreak in Italy? Maybe it's because Italians interact closely with each other (i.e. greetings include kissing cheeks) and there are many multi-generational families allowing children to easily spread the disease to grandparents who are at higher risk of dying.

    How to test hypothesis:
    - start testing more children and compare viral loads to adults
    - Compare the infection rate of 25-35 year old people that have children vs those that don't.

    Interventions:
    - close all schools
    - implement aggressive hygiene practices for children
    - have children play outdoors

  • #2
    It's like a modern day Children of the Corn but they're much more subtle now.

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    • #3
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-cases-by-age/

      Supposedly more testing there, highest rate is people in their 20's

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      • #4
        What you said makes sense. Pre schools are always hot spots for respiratory & stomach bugs.
        $1 saved = >$1 earned. ✓

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        • #5
          Originally posted by youngDoc View Post
          https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-cases-by-age/

          Supposedly more testing there, highest rate is people in their 20's
          I felt good about social distancing, etc. School was out, we were taking precautions in clinic....

          Then I drove through campus last night and my God - the 20 year olds out in packs, filling up the bars...it gave me nausea.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by youngDoc View Post
            https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-cases-by-age/

            Supposedly more testing there, highest rate is people in their 20's
            This is an anomaly since the initial outbreak was in a cult that was heavily in the 20s, and they contained it rapidly. It does not analogize well. Except that testing/tracing works.

            We already know in general kids are spreaders. When school is out, many viral illness drop 20-40%.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by WCInovice View Post

              I felt good about social distancing, etc. School was out, we were taking precautions in clinic....

              Then I drove through campus last night and my God - the 20 year olds out in packs, filling up the bars...it gave me nausea.
              There might be a national shutdown of bars and nightclubs, etc. If California has already done it along with Italy and some of Europe, there may be no better way to minimize further massive subclinical infections.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by grp2c View Post
                - implement aggressive hygiene practices for children
                Ha. We nearly started WW3 in our household trying to do this today. (Day 3 of social distancing and some hairline cracks are starting to show )

                We tried showing the kids of the poor COVID19 victims struggling to breathe on NC O2 as a way to scare them into handwashing and not touching their face.

                I don't think we will be receiving any parent of the year awards after all...

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                • #9
                  nyc- bars that don't serve food must close, restaurants can only do takeout or delivery. https://nypost.com/2020/03/15/de-bla...life-shutdown/ a little late but necessary considering i heard bars were packed last night by those not caring about social distancing

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                  • #10
                    Oh nursing homes, cubicle offices. buses, trains and carpools wouldn’t be far behind.
                    Great party at the Kirkland Nursing Home.
                    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...and-washington

                    Why do we always blame things on a different generation?


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                    • #11
                      I cannot think of a better vector for a disease then children.

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