Tesla

[jfoxcpacfp]

I suppose now you frugal car freaks really can have your cake and eat it, too. Anybody on the waiting list?

Tesla Unveils $35,000 Model 3 Sedan

[hightower]

Not buying one...yet.  Likely will at some point. But, we're good on cars for at least the next 5-10 years.  If Tesla is able to ramp up production on this car like they say they will, it will be a game changer IMHO.  Battery technology and prices need to continue to come down as well.  What I'm more interested in at this point is buying a little bit of Tesla stock the next time it drops to a more reasonable price.  I will probably put 5-10k into it.  Not enough to be much of a risk, but enough to be worthwhile if the company does as well as I think they will over the next 10-15 years.

Proof that battery technology is changing quickly and will soon make EV's a no-brainer...Toyota is working on an EV with solid state batteries.  This allows for much more powerful batteries in a smaller size with much faster charging times.  It solves the range anxiety that everyone is so obsessed with and it solves the long distance driving dilemma by allowing cars to be charged very quickly (eventually it will be just as fast to fill up with electricity as it is to fill up with gas).  Exciting times for electric cars!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric-cars-idUSKBN1AA035

[q-school]

Yes but at some point tesla will lose 7500 federal tax rebate. Bolt ev has tremendous range as well but lacks autopilot which is very compelling for me.

Options are improving!

[adventure]

Nope. Nissan Leaf instead. Got some amazing discounts.

[hightower]

q-school wrote:

Yes but at some point tesla will lose 7500 federal tax rebate. Bolt ev has tremendous range as well but lacks autopilot which is very compelling for me.

Options are improving!

Click to expand...

You're right.  The federal tax credits will go away soon (as designed).  But I don't think this will change much personally.  The prices will continue to come down and they will become more and more desirable each year, especially as people catch on to all the benefits of driving an EV (SO MUCH CHEAPER TO FUEL!).

Nissan leaf's are currently the best EV deal on the market for sure.  Can't beat the used prices on these.  But, you have to be okay with the limited range.  For me a Nissan Leaf would be okay, but for others it probably wouldn't.

And I agree the Chevy Bolt is a great choice as well.  They're priced about the same as the Teslas.

[RJ]

I am a Tesla car and stock owner. I think comparing Leaf to M3 is apples to oranges. There is supercharger network which is rapidly expending (not free for M3 owners though), OTA updates, much better range (220/310 vs 107), autopilot and potential for self driving (don't personally care about that one, my car has AP1). Remember these are ideal world estimates, so Leaf's range is probably 30-40% less IRL. Makes car unusable for most people even with short commute. Range anxiety is very real and should be taken seriously.

[adventure]

RJ wrote:

I am a Tesla car and stock owner. I think comparing Leaf to M3 is apples to oranges. There is supercharger network which is rapidly expending (not free for M3 owners though), OTA updates, much better range (220/310 vs 107), autopilot and potential for self driving (don’t personally care about that one, my car has AP1). Remember these are ideal world estimates, so Leaf’s range is probably 30-40% less IRL. Makes car unusable for most people even with short commute. Range anxiety is very real and should be taken seriously.

Click to expand...

Leaf and 3 are not identical, I agree. However, both are EV, which means: no more going to gas stations. (What an archaic stone age thing to do!!)  Also, you can just get home, plug in, and go. Both have range anxiety, batteries, cultural implications, different infrastructure, etc. I think it's actually good for the industry to have both high, mid, and low end options. Some good market differentiation between companies/models too.

I disagree about your range comment. As far as the range, we routinely get 100+miles, and hit 120 with room to spare once on 70-80mph on hilly interstate, w/ AC, radio, etc and some city driving too. So, the range is still very useful for many. Yes, range anxiety is real, sure, but there are many many many people who don't need more than 100 miles a day. (And if you do, I'd say reconsider because commuting is a waste of time.)

Anyway, my point is an EV, even a 100+ mile range EV is still a very viable option. Especially at the much lower price point. I do expect the ranges for most EV's to grow over time, to a point. It's exciting to see more vehicles hitting the road. Making them a truly viable alternative to fossil fuel vehicles may be tricky.

I will say though, that it's important to have a vehicle for what you actually need. For example, people who live in suburbs don't usually actually need an SUV when travelling between the grocery, soccer practice, and coffee shops. Get what you need. Currently, the leaf and an model 3 solve potentially different needs.

[RJ]

I understand 100 mile range works for you. Great. You probably have another ICE car for long trips. Is this correct? With almost 300 mile range and superchanrger network you don't need another car for long(er) trips with M3, MX or MS. This is where Tesla is way ahead of the competition.

[StarTrekDoc]

Day 1 Model 3 reservation holder and lease of both the Spark EV and Fiat500 EV on crazy cheap leases ($100/mo) that are up Spring 2018, so timing for our $35k base model is good.  100 mi commuter does most of the job, but we still have ICE cars as backup for long local day trips.

 

We're upgrading it for one reason only --- Autopilot -- so costs anticipated:  $35 + $5 enhanced AP - $7.5 fed tax - $2.5 CA tax credit =

$30,000 Tesla 3 with Enhanced AutoPilot.

That's not a bad deal as the closest comps are Leaf 2.0 and Bolt and neither of those too have shown any progress toward Autopilot inroads and we want that experience and luxury.

For our daily local family hauler, we have our sites on the Niro EV to replace the Odyssey+CRV.   We need space to haul 2+2+dog.

[RJ]

Just FYI, $2500 CRVP rebate is completely phased out if you make more than $300k.

[Zaphod]

You cant get the model 3 for 35k unless its in a single color with zero options. It is essentially not available. ASP will probably be in mid to upper 40s.

I have looked in to the tax credit issues for tesla since theyve sold so many evs already, and while they should hit the limit soon the way that its phased out means people will still get the credits for a considerably long time after. I dont recall the exact amount of time but I think its longer than a year after hitting the milestone, a time when their volume should be much higher than now.

[adventure]

RJ wrote:

I understand 100 mile range works for you. Great. You probably have another ICE car for long trips. Is this correct? With almost 300 mile range and superchanrger network you don’t need another car for long(er) trips with M3, MX or MS. This is where Tesla is way ahead of the competition.

Click to expand...

Yes, we have another ICE vehicle. It serves a specific purpose. It's quite inexpensive. I'd mentioned that most households have more cars than drivers. I'm not naive enough to suggest 100% of ICE engines should go away today. Someday, with technology, we'll see. Not for a while.

First of all, Tesla's are expensive, and a luxury. Example:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

We’re upgrading it for one reason only — Autopilot

Click to expand...

If folks want that a bonus, then fine, but most people don't need it. (however, I'll be the first to say every car should have it, so humans quit driving. We're bad at it, we waste time doing it, it's just a dumb thing not to have a computer do for us. I'd love to have AP and not have to drive.).

Anyway, cool AP stuff aside, my point is that given the low number of miles driven during the average commute:



And the low average miles per trip:



 

most driving done in America can be done by a 100 mile range vehicle. Yes, the supercharger stations allow for long distances which is awesome, and driving a Tesla is awesome and EV's are fun to drive, but it's not actually something needed. The costs to rent a car for your long 1x/year trip, or to have an ICE sitting around b/c you have multiple cars for now anyway just aren't high enough for most people to (financially at least) justify a Tesla level prices.

I'm hung up that people might by a car that they can drive 500 miles, use it for that rarely, and often just drive around town. Buy what you want, but folks shouldn't pretend it makes any sense. Clearly though, car buying isn't rational, as we have way more BMW's than people can really afford, etc. Fun to drive, but a pretty expensive way to keep our driveways from moving.

Given the real need (low miles) of folks, I'm optimistic the EV market will grow and help fill that need. Both practically, and psychologically having Tesla's go from 100k to 30k is really dramatic. If the "fancy" car sells for 30, then I'd expect the markets to adjust accordingly. It's nice Tesla has the extended range as a feature, but my argument is that practically, it isn't actually needed. Mentally though it's clear buyers like to think they need a higher range. Culturally,  we've tried to have one vehicle serve many purposes, and that doesn't have to be the case.

From a financial perspective, even with the cheap cheap cost of fuel in America, the savings to folks for paying for electricity at home vs gasoline are really significant.

[StarTrekDoc]

@RJ - I wish we had that first world problem

@Zaphod -   We're first day California buyers -  estimated delivery of the car is Jan-Mar 2018 -- that's within the estimated time that Tesla will cross their 200,000 sales and washout 1st qtr - which is anticipated around 1st qtr 2018 - leading to a cutoff of probably Jun 2018 for the full $7500 credit.

@adventure - I'm with you.  We have 2 EVs that go 100 miles on charge and get by 80%+ of the time without the need to charge mid-day.  It's the other 20% of the time that we use the Infiniti for day long weekend or multiple round trips for school and post school activities --- that's where the 100mi range fails and really need a 150-200mi car to get things truly done without a backup or mid-day charge situation (where planning and dwell time is needed).

We're still in the market for a replacement of the CR-V/Odyssey and the current target is the Niro EV that's coming to market in 2018 with 150miles range -- that appears to fit the bill.

Once you've driven experienced an EV, it's hard not to appreciate the benefits of it from multiple perspectives -- financial, cost of ownership, earth friendly (as possible).

[beagler]

I'm waiting for self-driving van. Lay flat seating. Say take me to (700mi away destination), go to bed. Wake up you're there, maybe it stopped to charge by itself midway. Beats flying. I'm guessing 10 years away, but who knows?

[ACN]

Unfortunately, the true M3 cost is as follows:

$35000 Base

+$1000 for non-black

+$1500 for non ugly rims

+$5000 for Premium package (anyone living in a cold environment or wanting "basic" features like power seats)

+$9000 for 310 mile range

+$5000 for autopilot

 

so $56500