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  • burritos
    replied
    Does everyone on the reservation list get the tax credit?

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied







    So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter. You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.  In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.

    Click to expand…


    You seem to forget there are 400,000+ people on the reservation list for a Model 3.  These probably include folks who currently own a 3 Series or who may have previously planned to purchase a BMW 3 Series, but are now on the wait list for the Model 3 instead.  So even though the actual production of Model 3s may not contribute much to the decrease in 3 Series sales, the over 400,000 people on the reservation list probably does…

    This is far from scientific and the sample size was small, but there was an interesting poll from a Model 3 forum, asking Model 3 reservation holders what car their upcoming Model 3 will be replacing.  What was the top car in the poll?  Yep, the BMW 3 Series.  Here it is:  https://insideevs.com/poll-results-bmw-3-series-top-trade-tesla-model-3/

    If I was in the market for a BMW 3 Series, there is no way I would prefer that over a Model 3.  It really is a no brainer to me.  And as someone above stated, the Performance and AWD models aren’t even out yet.  It is going to be a very interesting to see what happens!
    Click to expand...


    No one actually knows how many people are on the reservation list, nor what the conversion ratio to delivery is. We'll know when there is hard data in. I agree now that is out it is a more direct competition to the 3 series, but it hasnt been, because it hasnt existed until recently.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied













     




    The Model 3 is on track to outsell even the ICE cars in its segment, including the BMW 3 series
    Click to expand…


    This is not close to being true as of today. BMW 3 series sell more per month than current model 3s per quarter. We will have to see where it goes from here.
    Click to expand…


    Here’s a table that shows Model 3 sales along with other comparable cars.

    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-reveal-effect-on-other-luxury-car-sales.68083/page-19#post-2725682.

    I think this data is only for the US, and I’m honestly not sure of its accuracy.  It’s obviously not an unbiased source.

    Assuming the numbers are correct, the Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 series and 4 series, Audi A4 and A6, Lexus IS and ES, among others in April.  The Mercedes C class and E class still outsold it, but not by much.  If Tesla manages to increase Model 3 production even slightly, it will pass both in the next couple of months.

    The interesting thing to me is the huge year over year drops in many of the cars on this list.  It’s impossible to say how much is due to the Model 3, but I suspect it’s part of the explanation.

    • 3 series: 5%

    • 4 series: 21%

    • A4: 8%

    • A6 24%

    • C Class: 35%


    In case it’s not obvious, I’m also a Tesla fanboy.  We bought a Model S last year and I love it.  By far the best car I’ve ever driven.  The acceleration is addicting and the Autopilot makes SoCal traffic much more bearable.  I’m hopeful that they’ll be able to get their production issues and be successful.
    Click to expand…


    So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter.

    You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.

    wil

    In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.
    Click to expand…


    The Tesla S isn’t built to compete against the 3 series.  The Model 3 is.   Model 3 production is now closing in on 4000/week = 12000/month.  That means it’s already outselling it’s most popular competition and still within it’s ramp up AND hasn’t gotten past day 1 reservations– and that’s before a large portion of fanboy waiting for the dual motor/performance option to release next week.   Currently the wait is 3-6 weeks after configuration.  Let’s see what the tail is on delivery once that option drops.

    Like Zaphod said, by September, we’ll have a pretty good idea how much impact the 3 is having on competition sector sales.  With 400,000+ reservations, Tesla already has prebaked sales whereas rest needs to fight to get theirs off the lots.
    Click to expand...


    Just because it isnt built to doesnt mean it wasnt, its a similar demographic. The S cannibalized all midrange luxury types across the spectrum. Agree that with 3 actually here its much more of a direct competition.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied










     




    The Model 3 is on track to outsell even the ICE cars in its segment, including the BMW 3 series
    Click to expand…


    This is not close to being true as of today. BMW 3 series sell more per month than current model 3s per quarter. We will have to see where it goes from here.
    Click to expand…


    Here’s a table that shows Model 3 sales along with other comparable cars.

    https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-reveal-effect-on-other-luxury-car-sales.68083/page-19#post-2725682.

    I think this data is only for the US, and I’m honestly not sure of its accuracy.  It’s obviously not an unbiased source.

    Assuming the numbers are correct, the Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 series and 4 series, Audi A4 and A6, Lexus IS and ES, among others in April.  The Mercedes C class and E class still outsold it, but not by much.  If Tesla manages to increase Model 3 production even slightly, it will pass both in the next couple of months.

    The interesting thing to me is the huge year over year drops in many of the cars on this list.  It’s impossible to say how much is due to the Model 3, but I suspect it’s part of the explanation.

    • 3 series: 5%

    • 4 series: 21%

    • A4: 8%

    • A6 24%

    • C Class: 35%


    In case it’s not obvious, I’m also a Tesla fanboy.  We bought a Model S last year and I love it.  By far the best car I’ve ever driven.  The acceleration is addicting and the Autopilot makes SoCal traffic much more bearable.  I’m hopeful that they’ll be able to get their production issues and be successful.
    Click to expand…


    So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter.

    You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.

    wil

    In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.
    Click to expand...


    The Tesla S isn't built to compete against the 3 series.  The Model 3 is.   Model 3 production is now closing in on 4000/week = 12000/month.  That means it's already outselling it's most popular competition and still within it's ramp up AND hasn't gotten past day 1 reservations-- and that's before a large portion of fanboy waiting for the dual motor/performance option to release next week.   Currently the wait is 3-6 weeks after configuration.  Let's see what the tail is on delivery once that option drops.

    Like Zaphod said, by September, we'll have a pretty good idea how much impact the 3 is having on competition sector sales.  With 400,000+ reservations, Tesla already has prebaked sales whereas rest needs to fight to get theirs off the lots.

    Leave a comment:


  • RadMD
    replied




    So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter. You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.  In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.

    Click to expand...


    You seem to forget there are 400,000+ people on the reservation list for a Model 3.  These probably include folks who currently own a 3 Series or who may have previously planned to purchase a BMW 3 Series, but are now on the wait list for the Model 3 instead.  So even though the actual production of Model 3s may not contribute much to the decrease in 3 Series sales, the over 400,000 people on the reservation list probably does...

    This is far from scientific and the sample size was small, but there was an interesting poll from a Model 3 forum, asking Model 3 reservation holders what car their upcoming Model 3 will be replacing.  What was the top car in the poll?  Yep, the BMW 3 Series.  Here it is:  https://insideevs.com/poll-results-bmw-3-series-top-trade-tesla-model-3/

    If I was in the market for a BMW 3 Series, there is no way I would prefer that over a Model 3.  It really is a no brainer to me.  And as someone above stated, the Performance and AWD models aren't even out yet.  It is going to be a very interesting to see what happens!

    Leave a comment:

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