Tesla

[Zaphod]

Dr.V. Investor wrote:

put options

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The IV is insanely high, so its still tough to make money, especially if you're trying for bankruptcy style puts. I was super bummed when I woke up yesterday as I was going to re up to 250 for next week as my news drop strikes in near term.

If my nearer term puts go up dramatically I've been taking a percentage off the table and then letting the rest go just in case. Its been somewhat a consistent and orderly drop so its not great for puts in nearer expiries, and longer term you have to watch IV, etc...

I've sold call spreads as well against the positions.

That the price was for so long over 300 and offering an insane r/r is just amazing. Its still pretty amazing.

[Zaphod]

wonka31 wrote:

I kind of never understood how a guy can be that involved and successful in making revolutionary card, a outer space exploration, building a high speed tunnel system (Boring), solar panel shingles and who knows what else.

I hope for the sake of the cars that he replaces himself or there is a coup at Tesla. They truly are revolutionary, though I will likely never own one (too cheap to foot the cost). At this point, they need an experienced automotive leaderrunning the business, not him. Word on the street is cash reserves are quite low and they are in a touch of trouble here.

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Theres no one there to replace him, the management depth chart is nonexistent and almost all execs have left. Yesterday he put out a memo promoting a bunch of middle management to much higher up positions. No one with any credibility would associate themselves with them now, the end game is too obvious and they lost control of the narrative which was the only thing sustaining them.

A more responsible board would have fired Musk after the 'funding secured' incident, and probably have filed for bankruptcy by now. At this rate the equity holders will be wiped out completely as they basically have no cash. They sent an email to reservation holders to come down to the factory and pick out a car today, thats kind of the cash position theyre in. The 2025 bonds are trading as if the holders expect to not get anywhere close to their principal back, and thats a very bad sign for equity holders. Lately institutional holders have been dumping shares onto retail, which is never good and theyll end up the bag holders again.

Sad thing is still there is a crazy fervent fan base that believes everything and is continually dumping their money into the stock. Its wild and there will really be no excuses as it was clearly over valued and they had zero runway to meet their valuations without huge changes going back years. At some point valuation, debt, cash flow, etc...matter. This is not a tech company and that was one of the dumbest arguments ever. Tech companies are not extremely high capex affairs, and it was insane to believe a car manufacturer that was vertically integrated (which is not the most efficient way from a capital intensive standpoint) could garner that multiple.

A great reminder, narratives rule the market. This is true until it turns. Also good to remember not to get caught up in ideological or hero type worship, which to be quite honest was Musks main shebang. This led to rationalization, justification, etc...and people discounting not just red flags but buildings on fire. Hes just a person, its just a company and a stock.

[Dr.V. Investor]

put options

[wonka31]

I kind of never understood how a guy can be that involved and successful in making revolutionary card, a outer space exploration, building a high speed tunnel system (Boring), solar panel shingles and who knows what else.

I hope for the sake of the cars that he replaces himself or there is a coup at Tesla. They truly are revolutionary, though I will likely never own one (too cheap to foot the cost). At this point, they need an experienced automotive leaderrunning the business, not him. Word on the street is cash reserves are quite low and they are in a touch of trouble here.

[ENT Doc]

Train wreck.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-07/tesla-tumbles-after-chief-accounting-officer-quits-after-just-one-month

[Zaphod]

burritos wrote:

Zaphod wrote:

burritos wrote:

In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.

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Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc…At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.

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“Battleground stock.” I like that description and it makes a lot of sense. Did you make that up? For me that concern is totally neutralized when clicking buttons on a computer. Thanks.

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I did not make it up unfortunately.

[burritos]

Zaphod wrote:

burritos wrote:

In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.

Click to expand…

Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc…At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.

Click to expand...

"Battleground stock." I like that description and it makes a lot of sense. Did you make that up? For me that concern is totally neutralized when clicking buttons on a computer. Thanks.

[Zaphod]

burritos wrote:

In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it’s peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you’re sure has an appy, “hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER”). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.

Click to expand...

Painful lessons. Of interesting note, tsla bonds are trading at a similar range with valeants today. The other companies near that range are pretty telling as well, leveraged buy outs and debt restructured companies winding out bankruptcy, etc...At any rate, it nearly never pays to be investing in a battleground type stock, not worth the risk.

[burritos]

In 2016 bought into a falling stock called Valeant. It was ensconced in a scandal which I thought was a buying opportunity. I vested my annual IRA contribution $5500 at 46/share. After all, the infamous hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman had 4 billion dollars invested in it and was holding strong in his position. At it's peak it was 230 per share. Within a a few days, it dropped to $26. I sold and vowed to not do anything stupid like that again. Sometimes bad experiences teaches you a lot(like not ordering an HCG for a lady who you're sure has an appy, "hey I was trying to save this cash patient some money before shipping her to the ER"). Checking it today, it looks like they are now rebranded as Bausch(not ironically a company they bought out). It had dropped as low as $9/share, but is sitting pretty at $23. Had I held, I would have only lost another $375 over the course of 2 years, on top of the $2250 i lost in one day.

[Zaphod]

G wrote:

Playing devil’s advocate, say Tesla doesn’t get cash to keep things going and goes out of business, who takes care of the Tesla cars on the road now?

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This has always been a big concern with any new car company. Especially now considering they have trouble sourcing parts today and service is slow. When they go under or restructure who knows. Unsure what the suppliers will do, its not a large segment of the market. Someone will acquire their stuff on the cheap and hopefully help out those with the cars.

[G]

Playing devil's advocate, say Tesla doesn't get cash to keep things going and goes out of business, who takes care of the Tesla cars on the road now?

[Zaphod]

Just a friendly bump for anyone on the forum who owns Tesla stock and maybe hasnt been paying attention to whats been going on. Maybe time to reassess your position.

[portlandia]

Uh, oh. More bad news for Musk. Tesla Autopilot malfunctions leading to another crash.

http://www.foxnews.com/auto/2018/05/25/police-report-says-tesla-on-autopilot-sped-up-before-hitting-parked-firetruck.html

 

 

 

[burritos]

Anyone following BYD? It's China's largest ev company. Buffet bought an 8% stake in it years ago. They aren't flashy like Tesla(Think huawei phone vs Iphone) They have a factory in Socal, not selling cars in the U.S., but they are churning out buses for now. In China they are cranking out EVs at a prodigious rate for their own citizens and if numbers are to be believed, it's already profitable. No showy CEO pitchman(though he did drink the company's battery fluid to demonstrate its safety).

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/worlds-biggest-electric-vehicle-company-youve-never-heard

 

[CordMcNally]

I'm in the camp that I'm not quite sure how Tesla will do long term but I think from a purely visionary perspective, they're going to be fondly remembered. I think they're the company that will (and has pushed) other companies into the future.