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  • Tesla still kicking… I thought the prediction was q2 2019 all the stuff was gonna hit the fan
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    It did, and as they should have done earlier they raised capital (nearly 3B), they probably were risking bankruptcy with how last minute it was and their equity/bonds were acting like it as well. As long as they can raise capital the company can go on forever no matter the losses. They are still structurally unprofitable so far from a business standpoint. Stock price down 36% over the past year and down 5% over 5 years, which is been the main crux, they are highly over valued making them vulnerable, and they've lost a little luster, but much more room to go for sure as they are valued at 1.6x revenue whereas ford is 0.2. That would put their actual value around 35-50 if they end up getting revalued (which will happen eventually as they are indeed an auto company).

    This qtr should also be somewhat of an important one, its the first full qtr of model 3 comps that will have full scale year over year comps and it wont have the favorable ones it did prior showing massive growth. If they dont show real growth, in actual revenues, etc...its going to put a lot of pressure on their "growth company" narrative. Their multiple is based on it and given how high it is, it essentially becomes an extremely leveraged forecast that is very very sensitive to seemingly small changes in revenue/profits. This seems to be what most people misunderstand about large post earnings moves or revisions by analysts. Sometimes these prices are tied to models of growth with 50-150% growth per year, which justifies a lot. If it comes in 5-20%, well, that really crushes the forward model.

    For example, teslas price target and multiple justification from 2013-14 DCF which has been the bedrock price story (original px target 320) for this stock was an EPS of around $20/share in 2020 and 15ish for 2019. It is on track to be high negative this year. So, if their EPS isnt even positive and revenues show little or worse negative growth, its going to be brutal to share price.....eventually. Still have several forward qtrs for comps to hit of course, this is just the first. Superficial observers seem to be impressed when they deliver record numbers of vehicles, while revenue declines and they still cant make money, and we're kinda in a great economy. Big deal if you sell a bunch more because youre giving the product away for far less than they cost. These things eventually matter.

    Lawsuits and legal issues continue to mount as well which are negative over time and give management less leeway and take time and resources away.

    I think the Wework debacle might bleed over into these types of companies some.

    These things dont happen overnight, until they do. And even then companies dont just disappear. I mean a movie and a book had already been published and the case basically closed on Theranos and there were still people working there like a year after. Biz world is strange.

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    • There's our zaphod. ?.

      Still not out of the woods by any means. Another profitable qtr would do it good. Just breaking even with 4th qtr profit guidance would be upbeat.

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      • There’s our zaphod. ?. Still not out of the woods by any means. Another profitable qtr would do it good. Just breaking even with 4th qtr profit guidance would be upbeat.
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        Elon is planning to sell 100K cars this Qtr. Mostly Model 3. Let us see if that happens.

        They have started to manufacture Model 3 in Gigafactory 3 in China.

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        • Where does Tesla recommend to only charge to 80%? I’m just curious, because I’ve never heard this.
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          Conventional wisdom was never to overcharge the batteries nor to discharge it to too low a state very often. So the early motto was 80% and down to 10%, charge every night if you can to these levels.

          Then Elon tweeted that Model 3 can now be charged to 90% daily. Though my app still shows 80% as daily and 90% as trip. If you plan to go on a long trip and really want the max then 100% charge and drive away soon thereafter to not keep it 100% charged for a long time. But then you lose the regenerative braking capability until the state of charge drops t 90% or so. I don't want to use friction brakes and build up heat and wear them down, so 90% suits me fine even for trips.

          Battery health is better with slow steady charge at home with your 240V connector than with frequent high amperage supercharger use ( though for trips one cannot avoid SC and using it provisionally does not matter much in the long run).

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          • Charging infrastructure is the bottleneck. If you think gas lines are a pain, geez (30 minutes to 24 hours)!
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            The bottle neck is not usually the single family homes where you should be able to install a 14-50 outlet with not much electrician costs.

            It is for people who live in apartments, condos and town homes with no garages and hence cannot have easy access to charging at night while they sleep. If they can address it then the adoption of EV's will be faster.

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            • Regen starts up pretty quickly ~95% is what we've experienced when we charge up to 100% for long day trips up to LA.

              We've only used the superchargers on roadtrips where we couldn't charge overnight.  plan with meals and breaks, our dwell times was easily 'paid for' by the comfort of driving distance on autopilot IMHO.

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              • Ignoring the reality of this comparison, do millennials equate the EV's to a combustion as they do smart phones to flip/analog phones? And is apple the tesla of cars?

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                • There’s our zaphod. ?. Still not out of the woods by any means. Another profitable qtr would do it good. Just breaking even with 4th qtr profit guidance would be upbeat. 
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                  Elon is planning to sell 100K cars this Qtr. Mostly Model 3. Let us see if that happens.

                  They have started to manufacture Model 3 in Gigafactory 3 in China.
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                  We might be helping them reach that goal...if our rear facing child seat fits better in a Model 3 then it does in our Honda Fit, haha.  We've been thinking of replacing my wife's car to something roomier for the 3 of us to travel together in.  I'm not sure it's going to be big enough though. We're going to go check one out tomorrow actually.  If not, we might wait for the new BMW iX3 that's supposed to come out next year, depending on price.

                  I actually think they are going to do really well with the Model Y when it hits.  I think there's a big market for electric SUVs that hasn't been tapped into yet.  The Model X is too darn pricey so I think a cheaper option is going to gain a lot of attention.

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                  • Ignoring the reality of this comparison, do millennials equate the EV’s to a combustion as they do smart phones to flip/analog phones? And is apple the tesla of cars?
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                    I don't think it's just millennials that are really excited about Tesla.  I see a lot more middle-aged folks cruising around in Teslas where I live.  For me, I respect Tesla for it's willingness to push norms and do what others say won't work.  I see electric vehicles as far better machines for a whole myriad of reasons and I fully believe everyone else will see this eventually too (especially when prices come down).  It's refreshing to see a company that's willing to grab that bull by the horns and run with it.  They're kind of the underdog and I think they get a lot of fans for that reason too.  I think they're also seen as the first car company to do something truly different and exciting in our lifetime and it gets a lot of people excited to see that.

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                    • Charging infrastructure is the bottleneck. If you think gas lines are a pain, geez (30 minutes to 24 hours)! 
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                      The bottle neck is not usually the single family homes where you should be able to install a 14-50 outlet with not much electrician costs.

                      It is for people who live in apartments, condos and town homes with no garages and hence cannot have easy access to charging at night while they sleep. If they can address it then the adoption of EV’s will be faster.
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                      That's a good point.  You don't necessarily need a garage, because they do make charging stations that are okay to install outdoors so if you have at least an off street parking spot you can install one of these.  But, if you have no off street parking ability, then an electric car would be tough.  One of our neighbors has a Nissan Leaf that I occasionally see plugged into their front stoop outlet.  They run an extension cord across the sidewalk.  Not exactly a good solution though as it's vulnerable to people messing with it or even stealing the cord.

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                      • As a millennial I can't afford a Tesla. Or better to say I shouldn't afford a Tesla. And I am better off than the vast majority of other millennials being a physician.

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                        • I think the factory in Shanghai is going to sell tons of Model 3's in 2020.  And when the Model Y comes out, sales will likely take a huge jump around the world, in North America, Europe, and Asia.  I have not yet given up on Musk building the future GM of the world.  I don't own individual stocks as a rule, but I have owned Tesla stock for a very long time.  And I bought my first Tesla vehicle at the end of 2012.  Time will tell....

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                          • tlet. They run an extension cord across the sidewalk.
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                            I hope they have a good umbrella policy as I can see a lawsuit waiting to happen from someone tripping on the cord while taking a early morning or evening stroll.

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                            • As a millennial I can’t afford a Tesla.
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                              I see many millennials buying small but relatively expensive cars like Audi3, BMW2 and baby Benz that are in the low-mid $30K.

                              A base Tesla Model3 is available if you go to the store and book it, like I did. It costs $35K with a destination fee of $1200. And a $1875 Fed credit is available till 12/31/19. So it might cost less than the above mentioned cars. All you need to make it run perfectly is a NEMA 14-50 or some other 50 amp receptacle and a $35 adapter for it from Tesla. All other accessories are strictly not required. ( it can run on a 120V but is not ideal).

                               

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                              • True but the base model leaves a lot to be desired. If I were to pull that trigger it would be for the long range. But until they make a model that can fit 4 car seats it is not something I would really be interested in for a decade. Hopefully by then this will all be old hat and I can buy a used one from one of you guys!

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