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  • Dreamgiver
    replied
    Yep, this is an interesting conversation, I would certainly not call it a pissing match. For whatever my opinion is worth (I do have an MBA) pretty much all their financial figures lead to a path of implosion and this has been evident for the last several years to anyone who is familiar with reading 10Ks. I personally hope they pull through as I recognize the significant innovation and disruption Tesla has introduced, not to mention their pipeline of products. Nonetheless, I would steer clear of their stock and I would be apprehensive about buying their cars with the big unknown of possible lack of service in the future.

    Leave a comment:


  • ko
    replied




     

    Personally, I wish staff would delete the thread.  It takes away from the value of this forum, and the worst thing that could happen is this becoming a place for a bunch of overconfident amateur investors showing how easy it is to be misled.  I’m implying you and I both in that statement.

     
    Click to expand...


    For what it's worth, I don't think this thread takes away from the value of the forum at all. It's been an interesting discussion with two different viewpoints on a business topic of the day. I've enjoyed following it, and not in a "ohhh, let's watch them duke it out and fight dirty!" sort of way. Not sure why you're saying this discussion has been reduced to a pissing match - just because two people disagree and explain their positions doesn't mean it's a pissing match.

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  • Molar Mechanic
    replied
    I found the charts.  I honestly just wasn't looking for that to be a clickbait 23 paragraphs in 23 page article.  I only saw page one. I'll peruse it after I finish the August bookkeeping for my office.  That is the reason I'm still on the computer past bedtime.  Defined benefit and staff contributions are due this week.

     

    No further comment.  I'll look forward to interacting with you on other subjects.  We seem to agree on more than we don't.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    Seems only thing more polarizing than politics is probably Tesla investing financials.

    I’d just like to keep the financials out of it –biggest irony on this forum, I know.   ?

    Let’s talk about the cars — and how a Model 3 recently blew a Corvette off the line.

    https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-performance-crush-corvette/

    Or that a Small Lux Sedan 0-60 in 3.2sec

    https://insideevs.com/motor-trend-test-tesla-model-3-performance/

     

     
    Click to expand...


    Problem is I dont think there is much question about the cars (outside production, affordability), especially that the EV is very fun and will out accelerate many ICE vehicles.

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  • Zaphod
    replied




    No charts, no financial reports. Just emotion and prediction.
    Click to expand...


    There are 25 charts and an profit/loss statement with q1/2 figures and proposed (totally wag) q3 in that article. Theres a difference between you didnt find the charts relevant (many werent to me) and there being no charts. I dont know what to make of statements that are not at all in line with reality. Maybe you felt that writer was promoting a viewpoint you disagree with fine, but you implored me to link something so I did.

    I dont have tesla sources outside of Elon Musk and company financials. Thats it. I dont go looking for this stuff except when you asked me.




    Why do you think the 7,000 cars tweet was a prediction not a report.
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    I didnt say that, I said they didnt say they painted 7000 cars per week, just that many were produced, whatever that means. Likely does not mean they all had to be started/finished within the single time period, hence the term factory gated. Musk by his own record has not given me any reason to trust what he says on its face. Thats his own fault for getting caught up in his own predictions and things hes said that may have been a bit hyperbolic.




    it’s only because I’ve started to reply to your post on here about this company before, and always deleted them, but this time the ridiculousness of “crazy eddie” caught me off guard and I took the bait.
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    You say this, but you've responded before, and at that time (white ferrari thread, pg 2) said this,
    "I’ve read your stuff on here for long enough without responding. You are DEEP in the short belief system and I suspect have succumbed to the echo chamber. I’m more the fanboy, and have probably succumbed to the echo chamber on my side."

    I mean come on, no one made you come at me personally. I dont feel like I have a "side" to protect. You could have simply stated your reasoning why, but you've made it about me and it seems to bother you that I hold these positions. Just move past that. I dont care at all even though you've painted me as some kind of crazy short with a twitter feed made for besmirching tsla. This is simply the preponderence of the facts as I see them, nothing more. Yes, some "shorts" are crazy and their theories are stupid, same with the uber bulls. Any extreme position is open to huge error.

    You have a view, and I have a different view. We each assign our probabilities of being correct to our views, and mine is not 100%.

    You admit to having a dog in this fight, but accuse me of being blinded by my "short belief system". I personally wish tsla would succeed, I simply view their financials and headwinds as a serious threat to that possibility, yet the market price is not fully reflecting this. Thats very interesting. Dont know how one could be a finance nerd and not be fascinated. I can totally separate the product from the companies financial future, etc...and from my view of people on the forum. We all have our views.

    You dont have to engage any further, its fine as you havent provided any reasoning other than me being a wackadoo shorty. We have to wait months most likely at the soonest and years more likely to know whats going to happen ultimately. If you want to try to give me something concrete to discuss Im all for reorienting the conversation that way no problem.

    This should not be deleted though, it will however serve as a nice historical record of the zeitgeist in general and a couple people crazy enough to voice their views when things are all well and done. It will be an excellent reminder of the dangers of single stock investing, thinking you know things, etc.etc....and thats extremely valuable on a financial forum.

    How about a thought experiment? What information or change would significantly alter your position?

    I know several things that would alter mine. Increased reservations, production, sales, increase in operating leverage, increase in margin, capex and line openings, etc..etc...many more really.

    Remember my base position is that the equity is so overvalued that even if they do well, but not astronomically great, the stock price will come down and possibly drastically so in the future. They dont have to go bankrupt, that is an admitted extreme, though it is unfortunately increasing in likelihood.

     

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Seems only thing more polarizing than politics is probably Tesla investing financials.

    I'd just like to keep the financials out of it --biggest irony on this forum, I know.   

    Let's talk about the cars -- and how a Model 3 recently blew a Corvette off the line.

    https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-performance-crush-corvette/

    Or that a Small Lux Sedan 0-60 in 3.2sec

    https://insideevs.com/motor-trend-test-tesla-model-3-performance/

     

     

    Leave a comment:


  • Molar Mechanic
    replied
    I'll nit-pic a few things, but like I said, I value this site too much to go deep into a pissing contest, especially one so inconsequential.  If I'm "personally invested", it's only because I've started to reply to your post on here about this company before, and always deleted them, but this time the ridiculousness of "crazy eddie" caught me off guard and I took the bait.  That was as absurd of a fact twist I've come across outside of college football message boards or facebook politics.

    This is the link you posted.  It seems it probably isn't the one you meant to post, but does seem to lend some perspective on your Tesla sources:  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205144-tesla-endgame  No charts, no financial reports.  Just emotion and prediction.

    With regards to dealerships, Tesla has a dealers license and has operated as such in many states.  I can walk onto the lot with a cashiers check and walk out with a car in my state, and twenty eight others, if the map posted above is legit.  I suspect them going to that model has more to do with their generally poor supply chain management, and the realization that they want to push sales into q3 and they cannot build a car this week and sell it on the east coast in the next 20 days.  I'd worry about the lack of demand if there weren't significantly more people bitching about not getting their car yet than those buying off the lots.  I think there is probably some truth to the overbuilding certain configurations.  Good thing they were able to sell them.

    Why do you think the 7,000 cars tweet was a prediction not a report.  It was widely reported on as a statement of accomplishment.  https://www.news18.com/news/auto/tesla-hits-production-milestone-of-7000-cars-in-7-days-elon-musk-tweets-1797991.html  Perhaps they built cars unpainted?

    Regarding the China cash tweet...I don't know ************************ about corporate finance.  I doubt you know as much as you think you do.  I do know your slant is to believe the negative at each opportunity.

     

    Personally, I wish staff would delete the thread.  It takes away from the value of this forum, and the worst thing that could happen is this becoming a place for a bunch of overconfident amateur investors showing how easy it is to be misled.  I'm implying you and I both in that statement.

     

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
    You seem very personally invested in this story and it seems you want to make it about me rather than anything else, which of course shouldnt matter at all. Tesla will be famously successful or go bust no matter my personal opinion on it. You're the one using "deep into the short narrative", anti vaxxer, trump, etc...I am only trying to look at it from a business standpoint, that is how does this business continue to fund itself until it can make a profit? If it cant make a profit how much and for how long can it continue to raise capital? Involving emotions and such is just a bad way to look at things.

    And obviously none of us have all the facts and its crazy to even suppose anywhere near that, everything should be ranges and probabalistic when you approach things. Things change and new information arrives and your positions should update accordingly. I wouldnt be shocked for tsla to have a decent q3/4, they usually do and who knows with the weekend sale and whatevers happening in the books, zev credits, etc...anything could happen.


    offered ZERO numbers or debatable facts

    Serioiusly? It was full of charts that were straight from tsla financial filings.


    I’m not here to debate, but I’m curious…Where do you get your news? Are you reading the same things I am and applying your slant, or are you ingesting information colored by writers you believe?”
    Click to expand...


    This is not an ask for links. This is a general statement and accusation as to my sources and biases.


    IF they continue to burn at that rate, they don’t run out till Mid 2019.
    Click to expand...


    How is this a good thing? That is not a lot of runway and not something that makes you feel confident about a company. Sure, if this was a microcap with a low single digit PE, but its a macro cap with an exceedingly high valuation. Very different. Mid 2019 is tomorrow in business terms, not some far away time.


    Perhaps that has not changed since, but it’d be pretty bold for Musk to broadcast painting 7000 cars in 7 days if
    Click to expand...


    That was not the claim they made. I dont know why it would be that bold, he's made many a prediction about things that were bold and never came to pass, eg, Model 3 with 200k produced in 2017, of which they made 2700 a fact the SEC is investigating them for. He also said "funding secured", which was an outright lie. He tends to over sell and out right lie at times, this is not new behavior. The only new thing is that people are starting to pay attention.
    "Musk has built an aura of being a bad-****************** billionaire who does what he wants. For the last several years, that's been great for Tesla. More recently, Musk's aura has seemed part jerk, part bully and part liar. He surely isn't winning new fans with how he's been acting. It's more likely he's losing supporters and, since he's the face of Tesla, that means Tesla is losing supporters."-Gene Munster, Loup Ventures (guy who believed they could go private and loves tesla, big supporter)



    You literally were bitching about them not selling cars, then when you report on them selling several hundred cars from one location, you call it a quote “crazy eddie sales event”. WTF do you expect them to do. BTW, you realize they are only restricted from selling in a limited number of states. California, which is where the large weekend event was, does not have such restrictions.
    Click to expand...


    Yes, because it signals several things and makes narratives in the supposed demand/reservations, production, inventory or sales in question or mutually exclusive. Yes, they need to sale cars to survive, obvious. However, theyve done nothing but talk trash about dealerships, etc...but just under all this scrutiny this weekend they randomly choose to do this? Why? Thats whats important.

    Either they built more cars of a configuration that doesnt have the demand, they dont have the backlog in reservations claimed, etc...This is a huge departure for them. Maybe life saving cash infusion, so I understand why. However, just because its legal in California doesnt mean you dont need permits and all kinds of other regulations long before hand to act as such. Its not that they did it, its the departure and whatever the impetus to institute it was that is far more important. I think they called it a "delivery event", which may have been to skirt those rules, aka "not a flamethrower" tactics.


    Link?
    Click to expand...


    For this and all other similar things, you can find them if you want, Im not going to do the work.


    Coincidentally, it came out on twitter (I wouldn’t have considered that a source, except that is apparently your source) today that they had taken out the first third of a 2B loan for the Shanghai factory recently.
    Click to expand...


    This isnt funding, its registered capital. There was a row on twitter about the loose terminology one of the EV sites used giving that impression. It used to mean money that needed to be raised, which would be terrible, but some say you may be able to take loans against it, which would be good.

    http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2014/07/30/raise-fold-changing-registered-capital-company-china.html old article about the term in china

    Still, if they are able to raise capital they can fight for longer, or if they made enough this weekend but no one knows how many they sold.


    The bond picture is scary though, and that is probably a far better arguement about the company.
    Click to expand...


    Yes, their implied default is higher than Lehmans was before they filed, and if bond holders are concerned and thinking its 0.83c, equity gets wiped out.

    Again, Im not saying thats guaranteed, just the game keeps stacking up against any other outcome, and the probabilities are increasing, but maybe he pulls a River card that saves the day. All possible, one is just more likely, which doesnt mean the opposite cant happen.

    The only good sign tesla has going for it are the products, but if they cant get any operating leverage it doesnt matter. You cant make up losses with volume, and rushing product can undermine your good rep.

    Leave a comment:


  • Molar Mechanic
    replied
    Zaphod,

     

    I'm at a desktop now, so I'll type a little more, but I also gave up internet pissing matches in my twenties, and this forum is worth so much more that I won't continue to engage past this. Much like my uncle who is convinced Trump is the greatest or my sister in law who believes he is the second coming of Franco, there is no point is debate.  I'll throw a few links up here, you can read them, realize your position, while possibly correct, is not fully developed, or you may not.  I have no money on the line.

    First off, your link when asked for sources was a combination of twitter and a seeking alpha (pay to play website) that offered ZERO numbers or debatable facts, but rather 3 paragraphs of predictions.  I'll disregard that like I do anti-vaccine arguments.  IF you actually care about an honest debate, I'll leave out electrek and teslarati links, you leave out business insider and seeking alpha.

    You talk about cash burn.  They had 2.2 billion dollars cash on hand, and had a record 700+ million dollar cash burn in q2.  IF they continue to burn at that rate, they don't run out till Mid 2019.  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/tesla-earnings-q2-2018.html  They have expectations of positive cash flow in q3 and q4, though the consensus is still negative cash flow in q3 and positive in q4.  https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=TSLA

    quote: "Dont have the paint permits for >5000 cars per week."  I dug into this, and all I could find was Tesla reports of no issues with EPA or California regulations.  As of 2016, they seem to have been limited to 219k cars painted annually.  Perhaps that has not changed since, but it'd be pretty bold for Musk to broadcast painting 7000 cars in 7 days if true.  https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1013519243030253570

    quote: " Tesla doesnt own much of anything anymore, they mortgaged it for cash or has supplier liens on it."  Link?

    quote: "Doesnt it concern you that things keep turning out the way the naysayers or short narratives have said? All issues regarding raises, profitability, production, solar, vaporware, etc…and so forth?"  Perhaps this is where our differing sources have led us to different conclusions.  I keep seeing narratives posted that are continuously proven false.

    quote:  "I didnt see where you asked for specific links."  Quote above that:  " I’m not here to debate, but I’m curious…Where do you get your news?  Are you reading the same things I am and applying your slant, or are you ingesting information colored by writers you believe?"

    Quote:  "I have a curated financial twitter feed and things get tossed into my feed just depending on whatever is interesting that day to the swarm."  At the risk of breaking this into a bigger discussion, this is what in my opinion is the biggies issue with the USA today.  Twitter and Facebook don't show you news, they show you what they think you want to read.  This is true in politics, sports, and apparently investing.  See my above comment about my uncle and my sister in law.

    Quote:  What are you looking for? I did just see a link to an article that breaks down someones views on their situation and everything about it. Perused and looks fairly straightforward without too much slant either way, mostly financial in nature. I can throw you a link to that if you like."  Seriously???????????

    quote:  "However, the Ford/Toyota comment doesnt give me a lot of confidence you’re approaching this from the same disinterested viewpoint thats willing to unemotionally assess new information. "  You literally were bitching about them not selling cars, then when you report on them selling several hundred cars from one location, you call it a quote "crazy eddie sales event".  WTF do you expect them to do.  BTW, you realize they are only restricted from selling in a limited number of states.  California, which is where the large weekend event was, does not have such restrictions.  https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/media/us-direct-sales-map.118772/full

    Quote: "If tesla raises capital, the story continues and they have more time to make it. The issue is for some reason they havent."  He stated in the q2 call that he was not restricted from raising capital.  Coincidentally, it came out on twitter (I wouldn't have considered that a source, except that is apparently your source) today that they had taken out the first third of a 2B loan for the Shanghai factory recently.  https://twitter.com/xzssx1te7oar9if/status/1038701568013430784?s=21

    Quote:  "The Musk thing is a real conundrum. Hes definitely not the right person for CEO/COO and yet he made them as big of a deal as they are today. Maybe he should have ceded those roles a few years back for visionary/chairman where he could do his thing and they could do whats best for the company."  Yeah, I really don't know the right answer on this.  He's a genius and a dufus.  Time will tell which is greater.  It'll be fun to watch.

     

    Thanks for the insight into your thinking on the subject.  I strongly suspect you'll discount my opinions and links, and I've watched your posts on here long enough to have a decent feel for the truth:statement ratio.  The bond picture is scary though, and that is probably a far better arguement about the company.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Hence -  Happy to be a car owner (and perhaps collectible) and not a stock holder/shorter/caller/etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • wonka31
    replied
    I think there is a big disconnect between product and how the company is run. The product is very attractive and is revolutionary. The way the business is run can ruin that.

    There was a restaurant that I used to frequent. Great food and service. It was almost always busy. Then one day, it closed. The product was not the issue there.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    Tesla is showing that it doesn’t have its ducks in a row.  They hit one bottleneck and don’t anticipate the next one ahead of the curve.  These sales are pulling forward ones already in the pipeline so that they can pull even more forward.  That’s how it is circumventing the antiquated dealership rules.   I come from Detroit and the dealership is a big game that’s just as important as the manufacturers themselves.

    That said, it’s refreshing to see that they are trying to be disruptive of many things–including dealerships.

    There are so many people who would like Tesla to fail; but none of them can claim it for the right reasons beyond self preservation.

    Personally, I like the car and what it attempts to do.  Musk is a bit off the rails, yes.  The product is quite good and haven’t regretted getting it as the replacement to our Infiniti G37.

    The tipping point has always been sustained production of 5000 weekly.   Q3 will see if this is sustainable and profitability turns.  It’s interesting that they are tracking about 10% are completely tricked out performance and 33% are AWD versions.   I’m interested to see how quickly that segment is saturated, or if they simply eat the entire Performance lux sedan market.
    Click to expand...


    I think you're right about the saturation of that market being telling. If not, its great and they can do better, if it saturates quickly that will be bad.

    I liked the idea of disrupting the dealership but they havent been able to defeat that lobby which is essentially how those laws came into effect. It takes a lot of money to turn that kind of thing around, and frankly its sad thats the case for laws that are clearly anticompetitive.

    The Musk thing is a real conundrum. Hes definitely not the right person for CEO/COO and yet he made them as big of a deal as they are today. Maybe he should have ceded those roles a few years back for visionary/chairman where he could do his thing and they could do whats best for the company.

    I really liked/like the Karma. Cool car, but not as full range as tsla.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Tesla is showing that it doesn't have its ducks in a row.  They hit one bottleneck and don't anticipate the next one ahead of the curve.  These sales are pulling forward ones already in the pipeline so that they can pull even more forward.  That's how it is circumventing the antiquated dealership rules.   I come from Detroit and the dealership is a big game that's just as important as the manufacturers themselves.

    That said, it's refreshing to see that they are trying to be disruptive of many things--including dealerships.

    There are so many people who would like Tesla to fail; but none of them can claim it for the right reasons beyond self preservation.

    Personally, I like the car and what it attempts to do.  Musk is a bit off the rails, yes.  The product is quite good and haven't regretted getting it as the replacement to our Infiniti G37.

    The tipping point has always been sustained production of 5000 weekly.   Q3 will see if this is sustainable and profitability turns.  It's interesting that they are tracking about 10% are completely tricked out performance and 33% are AWD versions.   I'm interested to see how quickly that segment is saturated, or if they simply eat the entire Performance lux sedan market.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
    I dont go looking for tesla news. I dont read any articles regularly. Theres enough out there its impossible to miss. I didnt see where you asked for specific links.

    I have a curated financial twitter feed and things get tossed into my feed just depending on whatever is interesting that day to the swarm. Other than that I dont go looking. I see the earnings releases, etc..., and did listen to last earnings call as things continue to get more interesting.

    What are you looking for? I did just see a link to an article that breaks down someones views on their situation and everything about it. Perused and looks fairly straightforward without too much slant either way, mostly financial in nature. I can throw you a link to that if you like.

    However, the Ford/Toyota comment doesnt give me a lot of confidence you're approaching this from the same disinterested viewpoint thats willing to unemotionally assess new information. Doesnt really matter, something has to happen in a pretty quick time frame or things will become very obvious to everyone which direction it goes.

    If tesla raises capital, the story continues and they have more time to make it. The issue is for some reason they havent.

    Ok, here is the article that seems to be making the twitter rounds right now.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205144-tesla-endgame

    Leave a comment:


  • Molar Mechanic
    replied
    Lots of words, but I asked for links.

     

    Ford and Toyota are apparently desperate based on my drive by few minutes ago.

    Leave a comment:

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