Tesla

[Zaphod]

I stopped following Tesla closely a while ago, just recently started paying attention again. When I go places I usually rent one because its fun. He is definitely a visionary type, and while some of them do amazing things you definitely have to be careful of them, because we can only name a couple that actually did something. The rest turn out to be frauds more often than not. Theranos? I cant believe anyone fell for that, and some high level people did, or rather got blinded by greed.

I am not hung up on it to any extent other than to make money on it when it becomes over stretched and a catalyst exists for it to correct. I had mentioned to another investor last year words of caution when it was over 260, then it summarily dropped over the year to 180 and now rises again to where it has again become attractive to short (via long dated puts). So thats all the hung up I am on it, looking for a high probability entry. Have to be careful because he can tweet randomly and hurt you.

There are a lot more important things than a man on mars. I mean if comparing planets to terraform, this one is like 99.9% already there and a better place to start. Even Bill Gates who was a shrewd businessman himself is doing some great stuff now. We are not either all good or bad.

[Complete_newbie]

I see. Well you are following Tesla company stock. I have not watched that stock. At all.

I do follow what Musk does. Don't think he is doing it as a shyster. Yes theranos - tragedy, fake etc. Musk ? I am willing to bet he is manic, crazy and doesn't care too much about money but doing as many crazy projects before he dies - profit be damned.

[Zaphod]

Complete_newbie wrote:

I see. Well you are following Tesla company stock. I have not watched that stock. At all.

I do follow what Musk does. Don’t think he is doing it as a shyster. Yes theranos – tragedy, fake etc. Musk ? I am willing to bet he is manic, crazy and doesn’t care too much about money but doing as many crazy projects before he dies – profit be damned.

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I have and do follow Musk as well. Rn he is the company, and without him they go under asap.

It also does bother me for any of these issues to even be possibly associated with any negative activity because that decreases their uptake and subsequent investments, and I am a proponent of solar and electrification of vehicles. I think hes lasted long enough they outlive any rep damage now though. He has successfully lured in competition which will set the whole thing free from his single entity risk.

Again, he can be both a visionary, truly believe in this world he wants to see and somewhat a shyster. Thatd just be totally normal. You should look into how twisted his personal finances, etc...are. Profit be damned sure, but he is making out no matter what and the financial world will eventually care if they cant keep going without continually raising capital and diluting shareholders, taking on more debt, etc...As long as he can keep things going and doesnt have an outside uncontrollable risk like covenants, defaults, etc...they may get lucky. He is exceedingly risky certainly and it has rewarded him thus far.

[VagabondMD]

Er, back to point ?, it occurs to me that there is not a single Tesla that I have ever seen in the physician or employee parking lot at my (suburban) hospital. I guess that we are generally just not as into status cars as they are at some other places. There are at least three other docs, in addition to me, who drive Priuses (that I know of). One of my radiology partners drives a Porsche but the rest drive mundane cars (VW Passat x 3, Honda Pilot x 2, Subaru Forrester, Nissan Pathfinder, Lexus ES 350 come to mind).

[NaOH]

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[ginmqi]

With the sharing economy taking off, I'm loving Turo's concept and am eagerly waiting for an opportunity to rent a Model S for a day or few. Don't have much opinion on the company/Musk himself (due to limited knowledge) but the cars are incredibly fast and the instant torque has got to be an amazing feeling.

 

http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-s/2017/2017-tesla-model-s-p100d-first-test-review/

0-60 in 2.28s  as tested by MT. Fastest 0-60 production car time ever tested...and this includes all the million dollar+ hypercars. Amazing.

[hightower]

I find it hilarious how polarizing Tesla is.  You have people who really love the company and the cars and others who absolutely hate it all.  I don't get the haters personally.  I like Teslas simply because I'm a big fan of electric cars.  I see them as a realistic way to get people away from using fossil fuels for transportation, especially if solar, wind, and other sustainable energy sources (possibly fusion someday) continue to take off.  I don't think its fair to call them toys.  They are real cars that can not only provide 100% of your transportation needs, but are also really impressive in terms of performance.  The Model S has a version that does 0-60 in 2.5 seconds I believe.

Personally I don't want a $70k+ car so I have no plans on buying one.  However, the yet to be released model 3 ($35K) is a possibility in the near future.

The SpaceX stuff seems completely insane and far fetched right now, but I'm pretty excited that someone is actually trying to do that stuff.  More power to him.  If he succeeds, great.  If not, who cares?  That's why I don't get the haters.

And the solar stuff is really great too.  They make battery packs for homes that can be paired with solar panels (and eventually solar roof shingles) and provide all of the homes power needs.

I don't know if the company will be a success (and neither does anyone else).  But, they are doing a lot of cool stuff that I think is important for the future of our planet.  And they're doing it now.

 

[Zaphod]

hightower wrote:

I find it hilarious how polarizing Tesla is.  You have people who really love the company and the cars and others who absolutely hate it all.  I don’t get the haters personally.  I like Teslas simply because I’m a big fan of electric cars.  I see them as a realistic way to get people away from using fossil fuels for transportation, especially if solar, wind, and other sustainable energy sources (possibly fusion someday) continue to take off.  I don’t think its fair to call them toys.  They are real cars that can not only provide 100% of your transportation needs, but are also really impressive in terms of performance.  The Model S has a version that does 0-60 in 2.5 seconds I believe.

Personally I don’t want a $70k+ car so I have no plans on buying one.  However, the yet to be released model 3 ($35K) is a possibility in the near future.

The SpaceX stuff seems completely insane and far fetched right now, but I’m pretty excited that someone is actually trying to do that stuff.  More power to him.  If he succeeds, great.  If not, who cares?  That’s why I don’t get the haters.

And the solar stuff is really great too.  They make battery packs for homes that can be paired with solar panels (and eventually solar roof shingles) and provide all of the homes power needs.

I don’t know if the company will be a success (and neither does anyone else).  But, they are doing a lot of cool stuff that I think is important for the future of our planet.  And they’re doing it now.

 

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Thats because you've created a straw man argument. I love love electric cars, and solar and other renewables as well. Doesnt mean Tesla is a good company or has a reasonable price, plan or isnt filling peoples heads with stories to cover up their businesses shortcomings all the while enriching themselves. These things are coming whether or not Tesla continues as an ongoing company because it makes sense economically. There are good and bad aspects to people and companies, you dont have to be absolutely polarized into one side or another. You just evaluate each individual thing on its own merit, the world is grey, grey, and grey.

As it currently stands, the company has a nearly impossible task of being successful if that means ever operating profitably. If they can pivot to something else than that will be a different story. Its the time frame that is interesting and if Musk can woo Trump enough to keep him afloat, all the while keeping the public entertained and captivated by new stories that dont seem to materialize (your shingles, power packs, battery swaps, snake recharge, etc....).

The biggest reason its polarized is peop stories, and dont know much about business or have the attention to evaluate it properly. If they did, they would see the task Tesla has ahead is nearly impossible, but thats boring. You have a segment of the population captivated by stories and ideas, and the other part is looking at the details and noticing what can and cant happen. This is not about ideas either, its about acting as if a plant that was run by the most efficient company in the world at building cars is going to all the sudden increase all time capacity 100% by a company that cant produce anything efficiently.

[Craigy]

Fun thread.

Tesla was probably the first real luxury/performance eco-car.  It's very unassuming yet allows the owner to pose as socially aware, enviro-friendly without having to drive a golf cart or some other shitbox.  Complete one-up on anybody driving a prius or other hybrid, being fully electric and "emissions free."  And then there's all the tax credits and subsidies, with the most egregious being in Norway where the government essentially mandated owning a Tesla if you were wealthy.

I would personally love to be able to fuel my car at home and never visit a gas station, but personally the range issue still bothers me too much.  I am one of those people who always has to keep his phone charged up, gas tank full, etc.  The idea of sitting in traffic watching my range plummet while my AC blows freaks me out too much for me to consider electric for anything more than an around-town car.

And also it's still too expensive.  The upcoming Model 3 is more compelling at a smaller pricetag, but even that is about double the cost of a comparable gasoline vehicle.  And then the gas prices are so cheap right now that depending on where you live, plugging in might not actually save you any money vs filling up.

I'll consider it again when the battery tech improves and gets cheaper.  Right now none of these electric cars make any economic sense without loads and loads of government subsidies and mandates.

[Zaphod]

Craigy wrote:

Fun thread.

Tesla was probably the first real luxury/performance eco-car.  It’s very unassuming yet allows the owner to pose as socially aware, enviro-friendly without having to drive a golf cart or some other shitbox.  Complete one-up on anybody driving a prius or other hybrid, being fully electric and “emissions free.”  And then there’s all the tax credits and subsidies, with the most egregious being in Norway where the government essentially mandated owning a Tesla if you were wealthy.

I would personally love to be able to fuel my car at home and never visit a gas station, but personally the range issue still bothers me too much.  I am one of those people who always has to keep his phone charged up, gas tank full, etc.  The idea of sitting in traffic watching my range plummet while my AC blows freaks me out too much for me to consider electric for anything more than an around-town car.

And also it’s still too expensive.  The upcoming Model 3 is more compelling at a smaller pricetag, but even that is about double the cost of a comparable gasoline vehicle.  And then the gas prices are so cheap right now that depending on where you live, plugging in might not actually save you any money vs filling up.

I’ll consider it again when the battery tech improves and gets cheaper.  Right now none of these electric cars make any economic sense without loads and loads of government subsidies and mandates.

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Very true. I had range anxiety when I rented one and felt I knew better, but its a real thing. Superchargers arent exactly conveniently located anywhere for normal use (theyre not made to be), and the other charging networks are simply inadequate. Neither solar or electric cars makes economic sense rn. Solar has one of the steepest moores law curve and you make money waiting rn. I get everyone wants on the bandwagon and to be green, but everytime I ran the actual calculations, I couldnt do it, and I live in SoCal with crazy tiered electric prices and a pool, etc...Still not economical.

[uptoolate]

Tim Urban did a series of articles on Musk and his vision/companies on his 'Wait But Why' site.  I thought it was well done and reasonably objective. Personally, I think that the world is a better place because of Musk's efforts.

I have driven and been wowed by the Model S and X but certainly wouldn't buy one.  They are beautiful and well made vehicles but way above my price point even though I am putting more and more value on safety, minimal maintenance and the possibility of self-driving capabilities (though years to go before I am really needing that).  Personally, I am not enamoured with the move to LED displays and controls in cars and this is obviously the way Tesla (and more and more companies) has chosen to go.  I'm sure there is a significant cost savings involved.

One of the orthopedic surgery residents bought a Model S within a year of starting practice. Ouch!  We did a bit of a road trip in it. Fabulous.  I just can't do it. Now a used Model 3 in 5 years.... maybe.

[Zaphod]

The world has certainly moved forward towards electrification of vehicles faster due to Musks proving it can be done and desirable. What he didnt prove was you can make any money as a company doing so.

Not sure how you can call that article is "reasonably objective". Not only does he affirm up front his fan boy status, his timeline and description mirror the story and not the facts. Nothing wrong with being a fan of the person, or even admitting where one has done some amazing things, but thats very different from being objective.

Tesla is a story, Musk is a story. He definitely understands how to sell his brand and stock. This doesnt take away from what hes done, just means its a lot less romanticized in real life and there is far more risk than appears at first blush.

[canadianoutlaw]

redundant post (deleted)

[Complete_newbie]

While what Zaphod is saying is true, innovation just doesn't happen without trying and failing. People fail to realize he could have owned multiple islands after he sold his stock in Paypal. What did he do? dump it all back in failing companies. Why? This blog will say he is an idiot for doing so, but at least he is taking a chance. Trying to make something new or bring some lab project to commercial use.

To me Musk is more than a story. I certainly don't have to courage to put my money (90% or so allegedly) on the line in a startup.

Who does on this blog? No one. And we aren't inventing the wheel. We are following books. Not writing one. Before any one points out he has engineers working for him; well he isn't dumb. He understands aerodynamics + engineering. He can hack it all. Doesn't mean he is going to go nitty gritty, but knows enough to come up with top down concepts.

Quite frankly I like his Fundamentals approach to problem solving. Don't take things as written in books. This is applicable to any subject. Even finance (why invest this way and not that?)

As I said previously, he may very well put a man on Mars. Think. About. That.

[Zaphod]

Complete_newbie wrote:

While what Zaphod is saying is true, innovation just doesn’t happen without trying and failing. People fail to realize he could have owned multiple islands after he sold his stock in Paypal. What did he do? dump it all back in failing companies. Why? This blog will say he is an idiot for doing so, but at least he is taking a chance. Trying to make something new or bring some lab project to commercial use.

To me Musk is more than a story. I certainly don’t have to courage to put my money (90% or so allegedly) on the line in a startup.

Who does on this blog? No one. And we aren’t inventing the wheel. We are following books. Not writing one. Before any one points out he has engineers working for him; well he isn’t dumb. He understands aerodynamics + engineering. He can hack it all. Doesn’t mean he is going to go nitty gritty, but knows enough to come up with top down concepts.

Quite frankly I like his Fundamentals approach to problem solving. Don’t take things as written in books. This is applicable to any subject. Even finance (why invest this way and not that?)

As I said previously, he may very well put a man on Mars. Think. About. That.

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I dont really think its dumb to put your money into a startup, especially when you're otherwise set. Theres no better way to do anything really if you can. He saw opportunities to take those companies and make them more than what they were all the while becoming incredibly rich doing so. Hes smart enough to figure out how to get any money paid in back out as well.

He saw opportunity and capitalized on it, which is excellent. These are all different points, but I do realize people have difficulty separating each part from another.