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  • Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

    I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

    We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

    The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

    To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

    In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

    Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

    Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

    I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

    I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
    Click to expand…


    I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

    The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

    It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

    Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

    It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

    Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

    Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

    For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…
    Click to expand...


    Case for Tesla valuation is based on autonomous driving tech potential.

    It does seem like an accident waiting to happen, but then so did Amazon early on (to me anyway).

    The fact that Tesla is limping along to me indicates there's good liquidity still in the general and funding market.

    Comment


    • Bottom line is they dont have much money, the raise simply moves the time table to reckoning a couple qtrs. Further, they dont make money when they sell their cars. They have no operational leverage, this is something that cannot be made up with volume and of course makes things worse. This is something you just ever make work. Nonstarter. This is the underlying issue. Now add demand and competition and access to capital markets drying up (tsla bonds are junk to the max on the market, paid nearly 9% for that raise which is egregious) to the mix and its a death sentence that just needs some time to work itself out.

      q1 dip was only expected from tesla fans in hindsight. Remember in 2018q3 he said it was going to be perpetual profits, etc....Their growth story appears to be pretty dead. The 3 was their moment, and it tanked. The demand does not seem to be as robust as sold, otherwise you wouldnt see the drop downs in orders/deliveries, making more than sold, or the numerous repricings of their vehicles. If one is production constrained you dont need to cut prices. The truth is making itself known is all.

      As I've mentioned before these problems were obvious to see coming and the future not as sold because they werent spending the required amounts on capex. Where on earth are you going to get a sustained 3, Y, truck, and semi when no new lines or paint facilities have been built for years? Its obvious you wont. Yes, they now have broken ground in china, but that means years away from being operational and sold and many many billions of more dollars needed to even consider getting there. Started to look worse than a mars shot.

      Elons pumps and material info leaks are no longer working as intended or with much effect at all. This is a bad sign as it means people are losing trust. Nothing has really changed about the outlook of this company the last several years except everyone else is starting to notice. Thats how it works, as long as we all believe its fine, when someone starts asking questions and they arent laughed out of the room, thats when it hits the fan. This is where we are today. Its just starting, everything will be looked at and interpreted differently going forward.

      If you're a follower and believer you should do yourself a favor and read the transcript, its nothing new for those that have looked critically already, but is for many others.

      A more likely scenario for the future is the continued evolution of the hybrid so these two power generators can complement each other and provide for better overall experience.

      Comment












      • Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

        I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

        We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

        The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

        To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

        In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

        Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

        An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

        Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

        I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

        I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
        Click to expand…


        I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

        The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

        It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

        Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

        It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

        Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

        Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

        For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…
        Click to expand…


        Case for Tesla valuation is based on autonomous driving tech potential.

        It does seem like an accident waiting to happen, but then so did Amazon early on (to me anyway).

        The fact that Tesla is limping along to me indicates there’s good liquidity still in the general and funding market.
        Click to expand...


        Everyone that knows anything knows thats not a thing for decades at the earliest. I'd say tesla is not limping along, its getting bad. Can you remember the last time a call went down like last weeks? That was nuts.

        I've always been with you on that theory, but Im starting to think tsla wont make it as far as the general market due solely to unforced errors.

        Amzn and tsla are and have never been alike. amzn has almost always been fcf positive. Amazon fueled its growth from revenues, while tsla has been solely from financing. Here are some great comparative charts but not definitive on the subject. https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1000772587692081152?lang=en

        Comment






        • Interesting take on EV development. Reminds me of the PC industry. Marketing and science have a really weird impact on business. Right place, right time have a tremendous amount to do with success. Choices made by companies and consumers evolve.
          I wonder how this shakes out. Back in the day.


          Click to expand...


          I think the home automation sphere is like the early PC. You really do need to DIY patch things together in that area or pay up a lot for an IBM type subpar, glitchy system.

          I think a better analogy for Tesla or EV cars is more like the early Amazon : canabalising bookstores and seemingly illogical market caps (compared to the retailers they replaced). But then Amazon found cloud and if Tesla wins the race for autonomous driving or some other major use, then it can keep going. The market is either wrong or we are not seeing something. When it has been seemingly mispriced for this long, I do wonder whether there is something the general narrative has missed about what is actually being priced.

          That is not to say that Tesla is not a bellweather for liquidity and may well be early to expire when the market air gets thin. But it could turn out to be an Amazon too. I'm a skeptic, but I was also a skeptic on Amazon (particularly when they were releasing dud FIRE phones) and I was wrong on that.

          Comment















          • Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

            I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

            We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

            The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

            To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

            In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

            Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

            An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

            Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

            I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

            I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
            Click to expand…


            I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

            The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

            It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

            Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

            It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

            Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

            Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

            For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…
            Click to expand…


            Case for Tesla valuation is based on autonomous driving tech potential.

            It does seem like an accident waiting to happen, but then so did Amazon early on (to me anyway).

            The fact that Tesla is limping along to me indicates there’s good liquidity still in the general and funding market.
            Click to expand…


            Everyone that knows anything knows thats not a thing for decades at the earliest. I’d say tesla is not limping along, its getting bad. Can you remember the last time a call went down like last weeks? That was nuts.

            I’ve always been with you on that theory, but Im starting to think tsla wont make it as far as the general market due solely to unforced errors.

            Amzn and tsla are and have never been alike. amzn has almost always been fcf positive. Amazon fueled its growth from revenues, while tsla has been solely from financing. Here are some great comparative charts but not definitive on the subject. https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1000772587692081152?lang=en
            Click to expand...


            Why the disconnect between bond and stock price then ?

            Could this mean they can restructure bonds without too much dilution in the common ?

            I don't really follow Tesla or invest in it, but it is odd that the stock is not lower if this is the case. Perhaps it is not being priced in, but I would be surprised if it wasn't over such an extended period.

            Comment


















            • Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

              I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

              We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

              The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

              To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

              In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

              Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

              An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

              Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

              I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

              I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
              Click to expand…


              I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

              The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

              It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

              Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

              It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

              Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

              Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

              For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…
              Click to expand…


              Case for Tesla valuation is based on autonomous driving tech potential.

              It does seem like an accident waiting to happen, but then so did Amazon early on (to me anyway).

              The fact that Tesla is limping along to me indicates there’s good liquidity still in the general and funding market.
              Click to expand…


              Everyone that knows anything knows thats not a thing for decades at the earliest. I’d say tesla is not limping along, its getting bad. Can you remember the last time a call went down like last weeks? That was nuts.

              I’ve always been with you on that theory, but Im starting to think tsla wont make it as far as the general market due solely to unforced errors.

              Amzn and tsla are and have never been alike. amzn has almost always been fcf positive. Amazon fueled its growth from revenues, while tsla has been solely from financing. Here are some great comparative charts but not definitive on the subject. https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1000772587692081152?lang=en
              Click to expand…


              Why the disconnect between bond and stock price then ?

              Could this mean they can restructure bonds without too much dilution in the common ?

              I don’t really follow Tesla or invest in it, but it is odd that the stock is not lower if this is the case. Perhaps it is not being priced in, but I would be surprised if it wasn’t over such an extended period.
              Click to expand...


              Give it a few weeks. There is a strong cult like following and even some crazy smaller places (like ARK). I mean the stock is not exactly doing great right now, its down 50% in the last several months. Institutions and insiders have been dumping. If we get much lower margin calls will pull the faithful and executives alike and the rush for the exits and big man margin calls will start. Its basically a vicious cycle. Those high paying stock options kept people around, if that goes, good luck.

              This is all in the back drop of easy money and an expansionary economy, what happens when that turns? If it cant make money now, what happens in a recession?

              Seriously, if you're considering buying one of their cars, please seriously reconsider what it will be like to not have the company around and no recourse whatsoever with service, etc...

              Comment





              • The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.



                To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

                I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
                Click to expand...


                Didnt notice these parts. Heres the link to the transcript. https://www.dropbox.com/s/q1v1qew51xrquwj/Morgan_Stanley_Tesla_Call_2019_05_22.pdf?dl=0

                No need to lose money unnecessarily no matter how small. There are also times where things are just too unpredictable and you dont have to take a position, now can easily qualify as that.

                I dont think the bear thesis relies on catastrophic loss of demand. They can sell 100k cars a qtr and it wont make a difference. Thats the point really. Their valuation is insane, absolutely insane. Unless they grow (and profit) at huge multiples year over year, its already over. If they cant make a profit, well then its all been a big mistake. It all has to relate back to that, as it is saying something about expectations. Reality has significantly deviated. Remember that profitable car companies like toyota, ford, etc...have PE multiples in the single to low double digits. Tesla is indeed a car company no matter how they try to market otherwise.

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                • Tesla - The Investment Stock Thread

                  --please use the investment thread

                  @Nysoz - If you're a sports sedan type but enjoy value, you won't be disappointed.   Tesla hits the sweet spot and checks all the marks for a balanced car that's in our 'affordable' range.  For 20,000 miles, you'll save about $1000 in gas if you're moving from an ICE sports sedan.    We took our tesla 3 on a road trip to the Grand Canyon.  1700miles round trip.  8 hours drive using mostly autopilot and arrived rested and ready to have more fun.

                  So lots to love on the car.  Local driving,  cornering, freeway commute, distance autopilot, energy savings.   Lots of space too for the size.  quite shorter than our G37 but just as roomy.

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                  • I think Tesla is one of the most emotionally traded stocks that I’ve seen in a while.  People love the narrative and the science fiction behind it, and the cool car. It makes for an interesting stock to follow, and I do check up on it daily.  I enjoy the show very much.

                    That being said, (and I could be wrong of course) I think they are toast, unless something drastically changes.  Cool car.  Cool ideas.  Bad math.

                    I won’t go out and short it personally, but it seems like the bill is coming due for the company.

                    Here are the qualitative problems I wonder about also:

                    1) The stock is buoyed by the story, not the numbers.  And they have a great head story teller, but the numbers are coming into the spotlight now, and the narrative has been decoupled from actually results recently, damaging brand name and image.

                    2) It is a status symbol, and the status of the symbol goes down as you make it cheaper and more available.  I wonder if demand and excitement could be waning.

                    3) Some customers are opting for their cheaper and less profitable offerings, cannibalizing higher-end sales right now.

                    4) More competition is coming online.

                    5) Most importantly though, the infrastructure isn’t there right now for mass electrics.  I live in a place where a lot of people live in very tall buildings with parking garages. They don’t have any charging availability when home.  There is no availability for me to charge at work.  I pass 6-8 gas stations on my way to work every day, and I can fill up in about 3 minutes on the way home at night and I’m good for 3 weeks of local driving.  I sometimes go on long road trips and can reliably gas up anywhere in a few minutes, with no worries about finding a charging station.

                    6) With the company’s finances in question, people may begin to think twice about an expensive vehicle that might be difficult to repair in an accident or breakdown, or hard to use without technology upgrades and support available for a very computer dependent vehicle, again dampening demand.

                    Of course, I could be wrong about it all, and miss out on jillions of dollars.

                     

                     

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                    • Status symbol ? --  If you believe the Prius is a status symbol, then the Model 3 and Y will gladly take on that mantel.   The X and Roadster are eye candy and will remain that while the 3 and Y will take on the well-to-do masses.

                      Higher end sales will erode and regress to normal Premium Performance Luxury quantities -- they still top the sales in their segment while now topping top 4 car sales in California last quarter.

                      Competition is coming - but still not as good as Tesla on several fronts.  We like the Niro EV - but no volume sales to lower price until they get battery supply sustainable.  Audi etron is overpriced and underwhelming.  BMV i3?  delayed and underperforms already.  I can't wait to get more EV options.

                      Infrastructure -  The BEV segment remains in its infancy.  When the Model T mass produced car was made, there were barely even roads let alone gas stations ready to support the horseless carriage.    At least most buyers of the Tesla 3 will have access to a 240V plug today and that's fine until solutions for the metro and apartment dwellers.

                      We traveled 1700 miles to Grand Canyon from San Diego last month.  Not an issue.  Every 200 miles charged 30min, which is good for us to stretch, bathroom and snack.  Throw in Autopilot and that was an easy, relaxing, and low stress drive with plenty of energy at the end of the 8 hour drive.

                      Any company can go under and anxiety from such purchases.   We had to deal with Saturn.  Is it a risk? sure.  Now in year 2 of production with high volume, parts will be plenty available.

                      Go drive the car.  Rent one for a week.  You probably will end up buying some EV afterwards.

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                      • I have rented and driven the car, the model s, not a 3.

                        Great fun car, poorly run company. You can hold both views, sad the fate of one is ultimately tied to the other. I wish it were better run, and it will be a bet loss to the industry.

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                        • Charging for 30 min every 200 miles sounds not fun. That's 30 min for every 3 hr you drive or perhaps less.

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                          • Zaphod, don't you think the absolute worst case scenario if Tesla gets into increasing financial problems would be a buyout by Toyota, Mercedes (Daimler), BMW, or Apple?

                            Audi and others cannot build a BEV that has the efficiency and range of Tesla.  (The Jaguar and Audi struggle to get barely over 200 miles of range.)  Tesla's technology is years ahead of anyone else.  The latest Model S with everything but Ludicrous is up in features and down significantly in price. Porsche asks, "How the ************************ can they build them for such a low cost?" Mercedes and BMW are very concerned that Tesla is going to eat their lunch.  The range for the Model S keeps growing and was recently increased to 370 miles.  Who drives 370 miles in one day?  I do, but it is way less than once a year and I can easily fill up at the superchargers.

                            My Tesla is far superior to anything else I have ever owned.  I have maintenance done perhaps once every 2 years or so, instead of perhaps 5 times in 2 years.  They come to my house to do the maintenance roughly half the time.  Once in a while (quite rarely) the computer that controls the ancillaries of the car will start acting funky, so I simply reboot the display computer while driving down the road without any issue, and the computer finishes rebooting in 60 seconds and everything is back to normal.  I cannot use autopilot during the reboot, but the vehicle turns, accelerates, regenerates while slowing, brakes and functions otherwise completely normally while rebooting.  I fill the tank from the sun (indirectly... grid tied) in my personal garage every night. And I get paid a bonus rebate by the electric utility over 50 dollars every month to fill the battery after midnight in my own home.

                            I continue to own 2 Teslas for a total of 10 ownership years combined, one for almost 7 years and one for 3 years.  I am almost ready to buy another one.  No worries for this guy.  I bought the stock back when the price was in the 20's because I believed Musk had demonstrated his ability to pull off rare feats while building companies.  This is also one of my rare single stock positions, and it is more for fun and to support innovation rather than simply an investment.

                            And yes... I am a Tesla fanboy, but it is based on personal experience and reasoned analysis, not smoke and mirrors.

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                            • I won’t go out and short it personally, but it seems like the bill is coming due for the company.
                              Click to expand...


                              I was tempted to short it about a year ago. Glad I don't do that sort of stuff anymore. It would have been frustrating.

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                              • Zaphod, don’t you think the absolute worst case scenario if Tesla gets into increasing financial problems would be a buyout by Toyota, Mercedes (Daimler), BMW, or Apple?

                                Audi and others cannot build a BEV that has the efficiency and range of Tesla.  (The Jaguar and Audi struggle to get barely over 200 miles of range.)  Tesla’s technology is years ahead of anyone else.  The latest Model S with everything but Ludicrous is up in features and down significantly in price. Porsche asks, “How the ************************ can they build them for such a low cost?” Mercedes and BMW are very concerned that Tesla is going to eat their lunch.  The range for the Model S keeps growing and was recently increased to 370 miles.  Who drives 370 miles in one day?  I do, but it is way less than once a year and I can easily fill up at the superchargers.

                                My Tesla is far superior to anything else I have ever owned.  I have maintenance done perhaps once every 2 years or so, instead of perhaps 5 times in 2 years.  They come to my house to do the maintenance roughly half the time.  Once in a while (quite rarely) the computer that controls the ancillaries of the car will start acting funky, so I simply reboot the display computer while driving down the road without any issue, and the computer finishes rebooting in 60 seconds and everything is back to normal.  I cannot use autopilot during the reboot, but the vehicle turns, accelerates, regenerates while slowing, brakes and functions otherwise completely normally while rebooting.  I fill the tank from the sun (indirectly… grid tied) in my personal garage every night. And I get paid a bonus rebate by the electric utility over 50 dollars every month to fill the battery after midnight in my own home.

                                I continue to own 2 Teslas for a total of 10 ownership years combined, one for almost 7 years and one for 3 years.  I am almost ready to buy another one.  No worries for this guy.  I bought the stock back when the price was in the 20’s because I believed Musk had demonstrated his ability to pull off rare feats while building companies.  This is also one of my rare single stock positions, and it is more for fun and to support innovation rather than simply an investment.

                                And yes… I am a Tesla fanboy, but it is based on personal experience and reasoned analysis, not smoke and mirrors.
                                Click to expand...


                                At some point likely of course, but right now they are still very expensively priced all things considered. Whether or not something is a good buy will of course be tied to that. A buyout would also come with the acquisition of debt, so I'd doubt someone buys them while theyre still very over valued. The biggest detractor is Elon Musk, no one will want him as part of the deal (this is rumored why apple didnt discuss further years ago, they wanted him gone).

                                It would be more likely after a reorganization and clarification on debts and liabilities. They have a good amount of open ended liabilities as well that no risk management team will want to pay up for. They could be taken out piecemeal or for higher than anticipated if companies are trying to scoop other bidders ofc.

                                I dont think the company is going down tomorrow. Its just starting, these things can last an incredibly long time I've learned. The crack in the reality armor is all thats just begun. Could be a couple years til finished. Valeant is still a company, a shell of its former self, but still there.

                                Like I have mentioned in the past, a well planned and timed bankruptcy gives a company an opportunity to move forward and a chance to work on operations to make it. Pretending things arent bad leads to forced bankruptcies and liquidation which has less chances for the product to continue. I wish they would do it right so Tesla the product can have a new start without the constraining debt, etc...Its not necessarily a failure as much as a new start.

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