Is there a strike price to consider buying? I knew a FA who in 2011 claimed that he only did index ETFs, but his only stock was TSLA. I think get bought when it IPO’d.
Fundamentals aside, what is the bankrupt scenario gonna look like? Stock going to zero? Bond holders getting 10 cents on the dollar? Customer base left out in the cold? I don’t own any tesla stock, but I just don’t see it happening.
An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.
An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.
I don’t have a pony in this race and although I’ve enjoyed reading the thread, I typically don’t have much to add.
However, I will comment on that above statement.
1) Until there is an electric option to power my vehicle for several hundred miles of off-road/isolated/backcountry travel, you’ll find me with an ICE truck and a jerry can of gas.
2) An antique car is cool. I wouldn’t say that about an antique flipphone.
A portable solar panel could be your jerry can equivalent.
theoretical off-road activities
Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000 to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.
I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.
We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.
The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.
To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.
In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.
Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.
An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years. Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.
Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.
I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.
I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
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