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  • StarTrekDoc
    replied




    Charging for 30 min every 200 miles sounds not fun. That’s 30 min for every 3 hr you drive or perhaps less.


    That's for Generation 2.  Gen 3 gets it down to 20minutes.  And the next will be even faster.   Most reasonable folk will drive 3 hours and take a break and stretch.   Others can be DVT seeking long haulers and do 3+hours to empty tanks, but most travelers will stop every 3 hours.  There's a reason for the placement of the locations of chargers.

    With range of 300 miles, we comfortably get out and back to home on day trips without need of refueling outside of home base.   The efficiency and range and cost all will continue to drop as technology improves on this in really only its 2nd-3rd generation and already consistently outperforming ICE technology in:  performance, energy efficiency, and now cost.  The last leg is for infrastructure for those with distance travel needs.

    We're past curve 1 ---early adopters and curve 2 - mass production.   Now it's the interesting part to curve 3 -  mass adoption.    You can do this for any early tech.  eg: TRS-80,  Apple II, iMac.

    Legacy manufacturers are burdened with needs to satisfy the folk today.  Tesla wasn't burdened with that and pushed the envelope and glad they did.  The Tesla 3 is a wonderful fun drive that really does make any upper person looking at a car that's Camry+ to wonder why NOT consider it seriously as their primary vehicle.

    With the Model Y coming 2020, US masses really with be served and I do hope that there's more competition from the rest of the industry to push the world to Curve 3.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    @zaphod For me upside vastly outweighs the downside in my portfolio. Like @White.Beard.Doc my stock ownership hold strategy is at least partially a vote of support for the technology and that I want it to change the world for the better.  Tesla could fail, I lose this money but if ICE goes away I will be satisfied.  My goal is to never own another car so probably won’t ever buy a Tesla. I actually have never drove or rode in a Tesla but I’m glad others enjoy it. I bike to work every day and observe how ICE cars are used from the sidelines, usually 5-10X size necessary for the 1 passenger. When cars are lined up at a stoplight and soot pours out of the tailpipes it makes me sad/angry. And I know that that soot is lodged in all of our lungs (I’m a pathologist), mostly because these vehicles still exist. If not for Tesla, there would be no hope for the elimination of street-level smog, which is probably under-estimated for the effects it has on population health. If I lose a small portion of portfolio, so be it. I agree that it is a very emotionally traded stock and I admit that in myself. I guess one would expect it for a company that has potential to completely disrupt a major industry (cars) that feeds the arguably the most entrenched industry (oil). There are trillions of dollars at stake in success or failure of Tesla and we live in the age of covert anti-information. The things that @zaphod says could be completely correct. Although many arguments I have never seen and I even sometimes indulge in SeekingAlpha article written by the most belligerent Tesla Shorts. For example, I have never read anywhere else that there are perpetual negative margin concerns.  Perhaps when Elon says things that have a 50% chance of being true it is the rationale approach when the things the shorts say are similarly outrageous. What I like about Elon is that he has 100% of skin in the game and fights for his ideas and vision. He could have taken his >$100M windfall from Paypal and lived a happy life, but he didn’t.
    Click to expand...


    This is just emotional attachment. Buying any stock on the secondary market is not investing or helping the company in any way, including some vision.

    You are frankly buying into a us vs. them mentality that really affects both sides strongly. This is a business and Elon Musk doesnt give two craps about the environment or he wouldnt be using a G6 to travel 25 miles in the city. This is simply a narrative. He has some skin in the game but he has already extracted billions from tesla and will be rich when it goes under no matter what happens to everyone else.

    The only money at stake in Tesla is whatevers out there right now. If it fails the world goes on, the mission goes on. Everyone who cares about the environment doesnt just quit. Whats your stance on nuclear? Thats the biggest easiest move to do the most good, not expensive cars for rich people. Air pollution is serious, but tesla is not the answer and never was. You dont solve a global problem with a niche solution for the rich, thats ridiculous.

    If you've never seen these arguments I dont know what to say theyre pretty basic and obvious. Theyve never made money outside of financial engineering, that is, when they did not have accountants or finance teams and they lumped all ZEV credits together for maximum stock reaction instead of recognizing them sequentially as they come. When you average them out, they never make money. Never. Even their 700M loss last qtr was tempered by 200M in credits. That can only go on as long as people are willing to fund them which has been and can go on for quite some time (see uber, etc...).

    This constant us/them bs, and painting people with differing opinions as if they are villians working for the bad guys is simply narrative, and frankly propaganda. If you need propaganda then something stinks.

    Everyone would be much better off to be as completely objective as possible in all walks of finance/etc...as they can. Impossible, yes, but a goal to strive towards nonetheless.

    I do find it fascinating that even on this board which is more disciplined and emotionally controlled than 95+% of people financially, that things like this (tsla stock) and debt pay down preference still highlight our irrationality and susceptibilities.

    In the end neither what I or anyone says matters, time will be the final arbiter. So far, things are going exactly as I suspected on about the right time frame. Another billion to pay off in Solar City debts this year as well. We can all convene again every 6 months or so, and see in a couple years what actually happened.

    Leave a comment:


  • BCBiker
    replied




    ““Over the past two weeks we have been closely evaluating every single Tesla retail location, and we have decided to keep significantly more stores open than previously announced as we continue to evaluate them over the course of several months,” the blog post reads. A few previously closed stores will be reopened, but with fewer workers. And another 20 percent of Tesla locations are under review. “Depending on their effectiveness over the next few months, some will be closed and some will remain open.”

    The herky jerky style in virtually all phases of Tesla have led to skepticism of the viability and reliability of its products and as an investment. Great potential and product but the “brand” has a “new identity “.
    Over promise, under deliver!

    For the masses, financing on a 3-5 year note, the “fear factor” is huge. Housing and transportation, the two biggest expenses. For those that can easily recover, it’s pretty cool. Reliability in the “brand” is what’s been damaged in the management of the company. One big hurdle but it might be the most important one.
    Click to expand...


    I like this argument because it is how I think. And perhaps Spok might take this into consideration and might wait for more clarity before dropping his 50-60Gs. However, when an average Jill/Joe Q. Consumer buys a product, the color of paint is probably about 1000X more important of a factor in the decision than these types of details.

    Leave a comment:


  • BCBiker
    replied
    @Zaphod For me upside vastly outweighs the downside in my portfolio. Like @White.Beard.Doc my stock ownership hold strategy is at least partially a vote of support for the technology and that I want it to change the world for the better.  Tesla could fail, I lose this money but if ICE goes away I will be satisfied.  My goal is to never own another car so probably won't ever buy a Tesla. I actually have never drove or rode in a Tesla but I'm glad others enjoy it. I bike to work every day and observe how ICE cars are used from the sidelines, usually 5-10X size necessary for the 1 passenger. When cars are lined up at a stoplight and soot pours out of the tailpipes it makes me sad/angry. And I know that that soot is lodged in all of our lungs (I'm a pathologist), mostly because these vehicles still exist. If not for Tesla, there would be no hope for the elimination of street-level smog, which is probably under-estimated for the effects it has on population health. If I lose a small portion of portfolio, so be it. I agree that it is a very emotionally traded stock and I admit that in myself. I guess one would expect it for a company that has potential to completely disrupt a major industry (cars) that feeds the arguably the most entrenched industry (oil). There are trillions of dollars at stake in success or failure of Tesla and we live in the age of covert anti-information. The things that @Zaphod says could be completely correct. Although many arguments I have never seen and I even sometimes indulge in SeekingAlpha article written by the most belligerent Tesla Shorts. For example, I have never read anywhere else that there are perpetual negative margin concerns.  Perhaps when Elon says things that have a 50% chance of being true it is the rationale approach when the things the shorts say are similarly outrageous. What I like about Elon is that he has 100% of skin in the game and fights for his ideas and vision. He could have taken his >$100M windfall from Paypal and lived a happy life, but he didn't.

    Leave a comment:


  • Tim
    replied
    ““Over the past two weeks we have been closely evaluating every single Tesla retail location, and we have decided to keep significantly more stores open than previously announced as we continue to evaluate them over the course of several months,” the blog post reads. A few previously closed stores will be reopened, but with fewer workers. And another 20 percent of Tesla locations are under review. “Depending on their effectiveness over the next few months, some will be closed and some will remain open.”

    The herky jerky style in virtually all phases of Tesla have led to skepticism of the viability and reliability of its products and as an investment. Great potential and product but the “brand” has a “new identity “.
    Over promise, under deliver!

    For the masses, financing on a 3-5 year note, the “fear factor” is huge. Housing and transportation, the two biggest expenses. For those that can easily recover, it’s pretty cool. Reliability in the “brand” is what’s been damaged in the management of the company. One big hurdle but it might be the most important one.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied




    Zaphod, don’t you think the absolute worst case scenario if Tesla gets into increasing financial problems would be a buyout by Toyota, Mercedes (Daimler), BMW, or Apple?

    Audi and others cannot build a BEV that has the efficiency and range of Tesla.  (The Jaguar and Audi struggle to get barely over 200 miles of range.)  Tesla’s technology is years ahead of anyone else.  The latest Model S with everything but Ludicrous is up in features and down significantly in price. Porsche asks, “How the ************************ can they build them for such a low cost?” Mercedes and BMW are very concerned that Tesla is going to eat their lunch.  The range for the Model S keeps growing and was recently increased to 370 miles.  Who drives 370 miles in one day?  I do, but it is way less than once a year and I can easily fill up at the superchargers.

    My Tesla is far superior to anything else I have ever owned.  I have maintenance done perhaps once every 2 years or so, instead of perhaps 5 times in 2 years.  They come to my house to do the maintenance roughly half the time.  Once in a while (quite rarely) the computer that controls the ancillaries of the car will start acting funky, so I simply reboot the display computer while driving down the road without any issue, and the computer finishes rebooting in 60 seconds and everything is back to normal.  I cannot use autopilot during the reboot, but the vehicle turns, accelerates, regenerates while slowing, brakes and functions otherwise completely normally while rebooting.  I fill the tank from the sun (indirectly… grid tied) in my personal garage every night. And I get paid a bonus rebate by the electric utility over 50 dollars every month to fill the battery after midnight in my own home.

    I continue to own 2 Teslas for a total of 10 ownership years combined, one for almost 7 years and one for 3 years.  I am almost ready to buy another one.  No worries for this guy.  I bought the stock back when the price was in the 20’s because I believed Musk had demonstrated his ability to pull off rare feats while building companies.  This is also one of my rare single stock positions, and it is more for fun and to support innovation rather than simply an investment.

    And yes… I am a Tesla fanboy, but it is based on personal experience and reasoned analysis, not smoke and mirrors.
    Click to expand...


    At some point likely of course, but right now they are still very expensively priced all things considered. Whether or not something is a good buy will of course be tied to that. A buyout would also come with the acquisition of debt, so I'd doubt someone buys them while theyre still very over valued. The biggest detractor is Elon Musk, no one will want him as part of the deal (this is rumored why apple didnt discuss further years ago, they wanted him gone).

    It would be more likely after a reorganization and clarification on debts and liabilities. They have a good amount of open ended liabilities as well that no risk management team will want to pay up for. They could be taken out piecemeal or for higher than anticipated if companies are trying to scoop other bidders ofc.

    I dont think the company is going down tomorrow. Its just starting, these things can last an incredibly long time I've learned. The crack in the reality armor is all thats just begun. Could be a couple years til finished. Valeant is still a company, a shell of its former self, but still there.

    Like I have mentioned in the past, a well planned and timed bankruptcy gives a company an opportunity to move forward and a chance to work on operations to make it. Pretending things arent bad leads to forced bankruptcies and liquidation which has less chances for the product to continue. I wish they would do it right so Tesla the product can have a new start without the constraining debt, etc...Its not necessarily a failure as much as a new start.

    Leave a comment:


  • Dont_know_mind
    replied





    I won’t go out and short it personally, but it seems like the bill is coming due for the company.
    Click to expand...


    I was tempted to short it about a year ago. Glad I don't do that sort of stuff anymore. It would have been frustrating.

    Leave a comment:


  • White.Beard.Doc
    replied
    Zaphod, don't you think the absolute worst case scenario if Tesla gets into increasing financial problems would be a buyout by Toyota, Mercedes (Daimler), BMW, or Apple?

    Audi and others cannot build a BEV that has the efficiency and range of Tesla.  (The Jaguar and Audi struggle to get barely over 200 miles of range.)  Tesla's technology is years ahead of anyone else.  The latest Model S with everything but Ludicrous is up in features and down significantly in price. Porsche asks, "How the ************************ can they build them for such a low cost?" Mercedes and BMW are very concerned that Tesla is going to eat their lunch.  The range for the Model S keeps growing and was recently increased to 370 miles.  Who drives 370 miles in one day?  I do, but it is way less than once a year and I can easily fill up at the superchargers.

    My Tesla is far superior to anything else I have ever owned.  I have maintenance done perhaps once every 2 years or so, instead of perhaps 5 times in 2 years.  They come to my house to do the maintenance roughly half the time.  Once in a while (quite rarely) the computer that controls the ancillaries of the car will start acting funky, so I simply reboot the display computer while driving down the road without any issue, and the computer finishes rebooting in 60 seconds and everything is back to normal.  I cannot use autopilot during the reboot, but the vehicle turns, accelerates, regenerates while slowing, brakes and functions otherwise completely normally while rebooting.  I fill the tank from the sun (indirectly... grid tied) in my personal garage every night. And I get paid a bonus rebate by the electric utility over 50 dollars every month to fill the battery after midnight in my own home.

    I continue to own 2 Teslas for a total of 10 ownership years combined, one for almost 7 years and one for 3 years.  I am almost ready to buy another one.  No worries for this guy.  I bought the stock back when the price was in the 20's because I believed Musk had demonstrated his ability to pull off rare feats while building companies.  This is also one of my rare single stock positions, and it is more for fun and to support innovation rather than simply an investment.

    And yes... I am a Tesla fanboy, but it is based on personal experience and reasoned analysis, not smoke and mirrors.

    Leave a comment:


  • Panscan
    replied
    Charging for 30 min every 200 miles sounds not fun. That's 30 min for every 3 hr you drive or perhaps less.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
    I have rented and driven the car, the model s, not a 3.

    Great fun car, poorly run company. You can hold both views, sad the fate of one is ultimately tied to the other. I wish it were better run, and it will be a bet loss to the industry.

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Status symbol ? --  If you believe the Prius is a status symbol, then the Model 3 and Y will gladly take on that mantel.   The X and Roadster are eye candy and will remain that while the 3 and Y will take on the well-to-do masses.

    Higher end sales will erode and regress to normal Premium Performance Luxury quantities -- they still top the sales in their segment while now topping top 4 car sales in California last quarter.

    Competition is coming - but still not as good as Tesla on several fronts.  We like the Niro EV - but no volume sales to lower price until they get battery supply sustainable.  Audi etron is overpriced and underwhelming.  BMV i3?  delayed and underperforms already.  I can't wait to get more EV options.

    Infrastructure -  The BEV segment remains in its infancy.  When the Model T mass produced car was made, there were barely even roads let alone gas stations ready to support the horseless carriage.    At least most buyers of the Tesla 3 will have access to a 240V plug today and that's fine until solutions for the metro and apartment dwellers.

    We traveled 1700 miles to Grand Canyon from San Diego last month.  Not an issue.  Every 200 miles charged 30min, which is good for us to stretch, bathroom and snack.  Throw in Autopilot and that was an easy, relaxing, and low stress drive with plenty of energy at the end of the 8 hour drive.

    Any company can go under and anxiety from such purchases.   We had to deal with Saturn.  Is it a risk? sure.  Now in year 2 of production with high volume, parts will be plenty available.

    Go drive the car.  Rent one for a week.  You probably will end up buying some EV afterwards.

    Leave a comment:


  • Jaqen Haghar MD
    replied
    I think Tesla is one of the most emotionally traded stocks that I’ve seen in a while.  People love the narrative and the science fiction behind it, and the cool car. It makes for an interesting stock to follow, and I do check up on it daily.  I enjoy the show very much.

    That being said, (and I could be wrong of course) I think they are toast, unless something drastically changes.  Cool car.  Cool ideas.  Bad math.

    I won’t go out and short it personally, but it seems like the bill is coming due for the company.

    Here are the qualitative problems I wonder about also:

    1) The stock is buoyed by the story, not the numbers.  And they have a great head story teller, but the numbers are coming into the spotlight now, and the narrative has been decoupled from actually results recently, damaging brand name and image.

    2) It is a status symbol, and the status of the symbol goes down as you make it cheaper and more available.  I wonder if demand and excitement could be waning.

    3) Some customers are opting for their cheaper and less profitable offerings, cannibalizing higher-end sales right now.

    4) More competition is coming online.

    5) Most importantly though, the infrastructure isn’t there right now for mass electrics.  I live in a place where a lot of people live in very tall buildings with parking garages. They don’t have any charging availability when home.  There is no availability for me to charge at work.  I pass 6-8 gas stations on my way to work every day, and I can fill up in about 3 minutes on the way home at night and I’m good for 3 weeks of local driving.  I sometimes go on long road trips and can reliably gas up anywhere in a few minutes, with no worries about finding a charging station.

    6) With the company’s finances in question, people may begin to think twice about an expensive vehicle that might be difficult to repair in an accident or breakdown, or hard to use without technology upgrades and support available for a very computer dependent vehicle, again dampening demand.

    Of course, I could be wrong about it all, and miss out on jillions of dollars.

     

     

    Leave a comment:


  • StarTrekDoc
    replied
    Tesla - The Investment Stock Thread

    --please use the investment thread

    @Nysoz - If you're a sports sedan type but enjoy value, you won't be disappointed.   Tesla hits the sweet spot and checks all the marks for a balanced car that's in our 'affordable' range.  For 20,000 miles, you'll save about $1000 in gas if you're moving from an ICE sports sedan.    We took our tesla 3 on a road trip to the Grand Canyon.  1700miles round trip.  8 hours drive using mostly autopilot and arrived rested and ready to have more fun.

    So lots to love on the car.  Local driving,  cornering, freeway commute, distance autopilot, energy savings.   Lots of space too for the size.  quite shorter than our G37 but just as roomy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied



    The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.



    To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

    I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
    Click to expand...


    Didnt notice these parts. Heres the link to the transcript. https://www.dropbox.com/s/q1v1qew51xrquwj/Morgan_Stanley_Tesla_Call_2019_05_22.pdf?dl=0

    No need to lose money unnecessarily no matter how small. There are also times where things are just too unpredictable and you dont have to take a position, now can easily qualify as that.

    I dont think the bear thesis relies on catastrophic loss of demand. They can sell 100k cars a qtr and it wont make a difference. Thats the point really. Their valuation is insane, absolutely insane. Unless they grow (and profit) at huge multiples year over year, its already over. If they cant make a profit, well then its all been a big mistake. It all has to relate back to that, as it is saying something about expectations. Reality has significantly deviated. Remember that profitable car companies like toyota, ford, etc...have PE multiples in the single to low double digits. Tesla is indeed a car company no matter how they try to market otherwise.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zaphod
    replied
















    Like everyone else I don’t know what is going to happen. I just wouldn’t be surprised if they deliver >100,000 cars in Q2 and then all of this bear talk goes away, just like 2018Q3/Q4. It is funny to me how superficial headlines like “Tesla Sales Decline” can change so many people’s emotions, even (!especially) analysts. Q1 sales was an expected/predictable dip due to expanding delivery logistics at scale to two continents. Year over year 2018Q1/2019Q1 was exceptional [~100%]. I would be persuaded for a bear case if the company revises 2019 deliveries projection below 300,000  to a less than 50% year of year growth rate but it is definitely too early to tell that demand is truly an issue.

    I know @zaphod will highlight debt issues, decline in demand for S/X lines, which are both true. But saying Tesla is not a growth story by someone who has followed TSLA like Jonas seems disingenuous. Also to be fair to Jonas he presents bear and bull cases and the financial media cherrypicks which numbers to use to support whatever narrative they feel like highlighting that day.

    We also have to remember that the true bears (see earlier posts in this thread) thought that TSLA would not be able to raise capital and that was clearly incorrect.

    The bull case I still believe is viable and the bear case is only viable in the setting of catastrophic, non-recoverable loss of demand.

    To me, the demand story of the Model S/3/X/Y could very similar to the iPhone. The initial people who bought iPhones were people that had Blackberries, just like early adopters of Models S/3/X/Y are BMW/Mercedes/[insert luxury brand] owners.

    In 2008, EVERYONE thought the market was small for $800+ phone so no one thought iPhone was going to be a major player. APPL stock dropped significantly when this was considered to be a fatal flaw in APPL growth story.

    Now 98% of people with iPhones are people who carried flipphones 12 years ago. Consumers have been willing to pay the premium for 10X better product and the lower-cost Android competitors really just fueled the perception that a touchscreen phone was really the only reasonable option. Smartphone adoption approaches 100%. When people see a thin black smartphone, the assumption is that it is an iPhone.

    An ICE car will look like a flipphone looks to us today in 10 years.  Most people reading this know tons about Tesla but the average Joe/Jill is minimally aware so as the iceberg gets exposed, we will see true demand for Model 3/Y. $1000 smartphones in 2008 seems more unlikely than $45K car in 2020 for average consumer.

    Ford, Toyota, Honda, VW will all be electric. However, when people think EV, they will think Tesla and will pay the premium for the privilege like consumers still do for Apple. BMW/Mercedes will remain niche unless they price competitively with Tesla and/or develop equivalent EV tech, which both seem unlikely.

    I personally do not believe the timeframe guidance on autonomous taxi service but anything that moves in that direction would be a clear differentiator. The company has made enormous investments that appear to be very good investments that were made very early that network well and reduce per unit cost at scale: battery tech, battery manufacturing, charging network, autonomous driving, renewable energy ecosystem with solar and batteries, updatable car software, and online car purchasing.

    I have an insignificant component of long term net worth bet on this. If I lose it all it will be worth the money in market education. If it goes well, we will go on a nice vacation in retirement.
    Click to expand…


    I dont know any real person that thought the market for smartphones wasnt massive. It was during the recession, but have does anyone remember seeing one and not getting one for the majority of people? Not a good analogy.

    The people that said they maybe couldnt raise money said that because it was obvious they needed to, they had a very high stock price and simply werent. It was illogical, irrational and a bad move to not if they could. That turns out to be true. It was an epically stupid move out of what can only be guessed as pure arrogance. They could have raised capital with stock raise at 350-380 for months last year and looked great doing so, with mostly equity. Instead they wait until their stock is at 52wk lows, series of publicly poor judgements have tainted the company, etc…and they instead get an incredibly poor raise at very bad terms.

    It doesnt matter how many cars they sell if they cant make a profit. Just doesnt matter. Theres also no evidence that they havent already saturated the EV market that wants one. Being an early mover is now a strike against them as subsidies go away for them while competitors come on scene getting it and combined with them losing it.

    Dont forget tesla is failing on all fronts. The 3 is objectively unreliable, they have poor service centers and difficulty sourcing parts, etc…and liabilities continue to accrue. Those are not just debt but for false advertising, contributing to deaths, stiffing suppliers, workers, etc…once sentiment turns on a company, etc…anything can happen and things looked over get punished.

    It would be great if Elon would have not been a part of tesla for some time now, hes not good for it.

    Its unlikely all cars go electric anytime soon, maybe further in the future. Everyone always dramatically under appreciates how long these transitions take. Even if we already had replacement vehicles today, and we gave one to everyone it would take considerable time. Chemistry just doesnt work the way moores law does and theres no crazy battery breakthrough coming to dramatically change things without serious trade offs. You can literally take the periodic table and find the most dense battery, its not hard. Its hard to make it work in real life with acceptable trade offs. Lets remember electric were the first cars. Everything follows energy density its just nearly impossible to beat.

    Theres a future there, but what we mostly hear is marketing.

    For car considerations, you really do want to think about those 1% use cases as they will be the annoying parts that make you think about changing your vehicle. Just the way purchases like that work. I dont mean moonroof, etc…but like roomy, hauling, etc…
    Click to expand…


    Case for Tesla valuation is based on autonomous driving tech potential.

    It does seem like an accident waiting to happen, but then so did Amazon early on (to me anyway).

    The fact that Tesla is limping along to me indicates there’s good liquidity still in the general and funding market.
    Click to expand…


    Everyone that knows anything knows thats not a thing for decades at the earliest. I’d say tesla is not limping along, its getting bad. Can you remember the last time a call went down like last weeks? That was nuts.

    I’ve always been with you on that theory, but Im starting to think tsla wont make it as far as the general market due solely to unforced errors.

    Amzn and tsla are and have never been alike. amzn has almost always been fcf positive. Amazon fueled its growth from revenues, while tsla has been solely from financing. Here are some great comparative charts but not definitive on the subject. https://twitter.com/teslacharts/status/1000772587692081152?lang=en
    Click to expand…


    Why the disconnect between bond and stock price then ?

    Could this mean they can restructure bonds without too much dilution in the common ?

    I don’t really follow Tesla or invest in it, but it is odd that the stock is not lower if this is the case. Perhaps it is not being priced in, but I would be surprised if it wasn’t over such an extended period.
    Click to expand...


    Give it a few weeks. There is a strong cult like following and even some crazy smaller places (like ARK). I mean the stock is not exactly doing great right now, its down 50% in the last several months. Institutions and insiders have been dumping. If we get much lower margin calls will pull the faithful and executives alike and the rush for the exits and big man margin calls will start. Its basically a vicious cycle. Those high paying stock options kept people around, if that goes, good luck.

    This is all in the back drop of easy money and an expansionary economy, what happens when that turns? If it cant make money now, what happens in a recession?

    Seriously, if you're considering buying one of their cars, please seriously reconsider what it will be like to not have the company around and no recourse whatsoever with service, etc...

    Leave a comment:

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