Tesla

[StarTrekDoc]

It's human nature to massage 'stats' to your favor.  As docs we try to be more balanced.  Clearly on fansites it's going to be like that.    I think I'm trying to be quite fair on the timing and have offered more specifics if desired

Yes -- EV driving today takes planning.  It took less planning than our RV trip two summers ago which really was fun, but took time to find parking for such beasts when visiting towns.   Road trips do remain the Achilles heel, but it's not much pain  and surprised on the timing of the charges and spots.

Specifics:  One can use the onboard computer, but I chose https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ as my planner as didn't want any surprises on our first extended trip.

The chargers are spaced usually every 100-200 miles depending on towns and topography.  On average it was about 2-3 hours travel time.

The nature of battery charging is that it's the fastest when the state of charge (SOC) is lower and starts to taper at about 80%.   Most current chargers (Version 2) charge at 150kwH.

My driving takes 265-280 Watts/mi; so 200mi = 56kw needed which translated to about 30min of charge usually.   That's where the math of 30min usually comes in and gets one on average about 2.5 hours of driving.   Most of the time it was more on the 2 hours driving and taking about 20min charge to get enough to the next destination --  all time told per stop averaged about 30min with the on/off ramp and going for snack/bathroom.

Data point:  The charging time actually was faster than our snack/bathroom time each time except for the Kingmen stop where I really wanted to top off the charge since we were doing extra driving along Route 66 with unplanned stops. -- so hung out there for 10minutes longer.

It's actually fun to hang out and chat with the folk there; like rest stops.  It's part of the road trip adventure.   RV trip really met some characters in the parks!

Edit:  For those who really care on the dwell times, the next generation V3 will charge at 250kwH speeds which will truly get the dwell times down to 10-15minutes.  It's then it will be like fueling at gas stations for quick refuels for those seeking that quick in/out.     Couple that with batteries getting to 400+ miles in the near future --  3 years from now the landscape will be very much different on roadtrips.    Distance EV is still in its infancy and already feasible and timewise, not really impacted from 'normal' driving routines.

[Craigy]

Zaphod wrote:

StarTrekDoc wrote:

Travel: Google says average rec is 2 hours driving and 15minutes rest. https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=l5juXJOcJdq40PEPmMiOoAg&q=long+distance+driving+breaks&oq=driving+distance+break&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0i22i10i30j0i22i30j0i333l4.1340.9722..13114…1.0..0.95.1663.24….3..0….1..gws-wiz…..0..35i39j0j0i131j0i67j0i20i263j0i10i67j0i131 i67j0i10.y8Zil6kXPUo CDC says anything more the 4 hours. https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/travel.html –I do believe 6 straight hours does put one safely outside 1SD if not 2SD of norm. 

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I think this is true. Most do not go >2h without stopping regularly, almost impossible with a family. Everyone underestimates how long they stop, I was trying to waste as little time as possible and couldnt believe how long a very efficient stop took.

I believe you can get more efficient. 

On one fellowship interview trip I maintained a moving average in the 70s, with a 8mo pregnant wife.  :lol:  We were probably stopping every hour or so.

Stopping at a rest stop is tremendously faster than stopping at a gas station, e.g.

I have a sneaking suspicion the tesla fans are underestimating their stops too. We should be comparing apples to apples.  30 minutes of "charging" does not include getting off the interstate, navigating to your supercharger going through one or more lights, finding an open charging spot, getting out and plugging in, and doing everything in reverse.  That's probably at least 40m.  Same as how your perfect gas stop which should seemingly only include about 3 minutes of actual pumping gas still takes about 10m.

Not to mention that you can get gas at virtually any interstate exit on the map, yet EVs have to plan their drives around charging locations.

Most tesla fan trip estimates contain a fair amount of rounding and a big dose of vagueness for their EV figures, yet are surprisingly specific when it comes to ICE comparisons. 

[Tim]

In any Honda, that equates to about 1/2 tank. Maybe a little less. The time drag for a full day of driving is significant. The route choice adds time too. With young children, impossible to control bathroom stops. The cost factor for flying a family of four adds up plus the cost of transportation at the destination. Usually, a one day drive ( admittedly long) means drive it. Two days there and back means fly. Twice as many stops and distance is my read of disadvantages.
I guess the “new norms” are in effect. In jest, the youngsters don’t pull all nighters anymore either!

[Zaphod]

StarTrekDoc wrote:

Travel: Google says average rec is 2 hours driving and 15minutes rest. https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=l5juXJOcJdq40PEPmMiOoAg&q=long+distance+driving+breaks&oq=driving+distance+break&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0i22i10i30j0i22i30j0i333l4.1340.9722..13114 …1.0..0.95.1663.24….3..0….1..gws-wiz…..0..35i39j0j0i131j0i67j0i20i263j0i10i67j0i131 i67j0i10.y8Zil6kXPUo CDC says anything more the 4 hours. https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/travel.html –I do believe 6 straight hours does put one safely outside 1SD if not 2SD of norm.

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I think this is true. Most do not go >2h without stopping regularly, almost impossible with a family. Everyone underestimates how long they stop, I was trying to waste as little time as possible and couldnt believe how long a very efficient stop took.

[StarTrekDoc]

Panscan wrote:

40k starting is hardly entry level

 

I’m also not sure driving for 6 hours straight makes you a “longer hauler DVT seeking crowd” or abnormal. I think that is more typical than stopping every 3 hours personally.

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Data points:

Car Segment:  Entry level performance sports sedan -- that's the segment that Tesla 3 is classified -- eg  BMW 3 series,  Mercedes C-Class, Lexus ES.

California's Data:  Near Luxury segment -  Telsa 3 q1 2019:  45% market share of that segment.   If you compare to the Mid-Size segment -  15805 registrations beats Accord and nearly misses the Camry by 80 registrations.

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-19.pdf

Price: Tesla starts at 35k without bargaining.  BMW 3, Mercedes C, and Lexus ES, Audi A4:  all start near or above 40k;   Even a loaded Camry Hybrid or Prius is over 35k -- and they are cited as the #1 trade-ins

--Point is for our cohort --- this is a very popular segment that many (if not most) of docs and family will seriously consider as a regular sedan in the family.

Travel:  

Google says average rec is 2 hours driving and 15minutes rest.

https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=l5juXJOcJdq40PEPmMiOoAg&q=long+distance+driving+breaks&oq=driving+distance+break&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0i22i10i30j0i22i30j0i333l4.1340.9722..13114 ...1.0..0.95.1663.24....3..0....1..gws-wiz.....0..35i39j0j0i131j0i67j0i20i263j0i10i67j0i1 31i67j0i10.y8Zil6kXPUo

CDC says anything more the 4 hours.

https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/dvt/travel.html

 

--I do believe 6 straight hours does put one safely outside 1SD if not 2SD of norm.

 

[Panscan]

40k starting is hardly entry level

 

I'm also not sure driving for 6 hours straight makes you a "longer hauler DVT seeking crowd" or abnormal. I think that is more typical than stopping every 3 hours personally.

[StarTrekDoc]

Tim wrote:

I have to grin at this. Two problems.
1) Our pit stops don’t run on time or mileage. Is there an app to regulate “bladder capacity and frequency “?
2) Sometimes we stretch the “day’s mileage “. The fastest route becomes critical. An extra hour or two means we don’t make it in one day. Frequent driver changes at the end. Can you synchronize driving fatigue? Next gas station, your turn or I’m OK are the triggers. Screw the gas, a 1/4 tank top off is fine.

That’s how we roll, the car doesn’t dictate the route or the stops. Will my roadside assistance recharge my car or tow me to the next charging station? Been chewing on that a little bit too.

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--we can always find an example where any vehicle will fail to meet the needs of that particular situation.

1.   That's the issue with young families.  If I had to get another mini-- it'll be the PHEV Pacifica .

2.   Yes, the long hauler DVT seeking crowd is definitely not EV land at this time.   I for one would simply fly to that stretch destination or rent a vehicle that's well suited for the situation calls for -- like an RV.

Point is -- I do believe that for most folk, for most travel patterns, current day Tesla 3 is able to deliver on most needs while excelling at what it's built for -- a nice entry-level cost performance sports sedan.

[Tim]

I have to grin at this. Two problems.
1) Our pit stops don’t run on time or mileage. Is there an app to regulate “bladder capacity and frequency “?
2) Sometimes we stretch the “day’s mileage “. The fastest route becomes critical. An extra hour or two means we don’t make it in one day. Frequent driver changes at the end. Can you synchronize driving fatigue? Next gas station, your turn or I’m OK are the triggers. Screw the gas, a 1/4 tank top off is fine.

That’s how we roll, the car doesn’t dictate the route or the stops. Will my roadside assistance recharge my car or tow me to the next charging station? Been chewing on that a little bit too.

[StarTrekDoc]

If you want my trip planner, I can get it to you.

Used ballpark numbers on miles and did circuit trip through LA, GC, Flagstaff, Phoenix Tucson, El Centro and in between daily trips.

Point is:  AP2 set between 79-83 MPH standard for me and it was a very easy pleasurable drive which typically we switch off driving stints.  with AP2 (autopilot2), I drove the entire trip without any of the typical fatigue that happens with us on travel.

As far as charging -- yet, charged 3 times on the way up with 2 meals+1 bathroom break.  The car charged faster/further than needed before our meals were done.  The bathroom break we waited 5 minutes more as I wanted to make sure we had a good buffer getting into GC Village since we were driving around a bit between Kingman and GC Village along Route 66 stuff.

Happy to share the details of the trip and breakdowns more specifically on each segment if you'd like

[Craigy]

StarTrekDoc wrote:

 We took our tesla 3 on a road trip to the Grand Canyon.  1700miles round trip.  8 hours drive using mostly autopilot and arrived rested and ready to have more fun.

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StarTrekDoc wrote:

We traveled 1700 miles to Grand Canyon from San Diego last month.  Not an issue.  Every 200 miles charged 30min, which is good for us to stretch, bathroom and snack.  Throw in Autopilot and that was an easy, relaxing, and low stress drive with plenty of energy at the end of the 8 hour drive.

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I'm late to reply here, but I'd love to know more:

1700 miles round trip presumably = 850 miles one way.

8 hour drive = 106.25mph average velocity.  Is this true??  :lol:

Even assuming you're rounding distance up and time down, let's lop off 100 miles distance, that would be 100mph average.

And again that's average velocity including time stopped.  Even when I can get a moving average around 100, my average speed is usually somewhere in the 80s, and it's not exactly restful.  Will autopilot even let you go that fast?  There's definitely a lot of emptiness on the way to the grand canyon though.

Finally, assuming you start each way with a full charge, that's at least 3x 30 min stops each way, or another 1.5hr stopped.  9.5 hour drive?

Or, as my logic has (admittedly slowly :lol: ) led me to conclude, are you splitting the drive into two days each way?  I.e. four days of travel?  Eeesh.

 

edit: Just googled it, duh.  500 miles from San Diego to Grand Canyon.  You saw more than the Grand Canyon.   Moving on...

[Craigy]

StarTrekDoc wrote:

Just addressing @burritos general question whether producing a unit of vehicle is anywhere close to profitability.  My over simplified answer is yes.

It’s like asking my cost of my salaried position as a primary care physician in the large institution is profitable to the wRVU that I bring in directly on a F2F visit.  There are so many variables to cost that one can easily say we a loss leader (get that one all the time) or if we’re really a benefit to the system.

It’s a durable good just like your refrigerator and washer machine and HVAC and home builders.

If you like the product, go buy it and enjoy it.

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At this point I would be worried that future warranty claims may not be fulfilled or that post-purchase service in general may be unavailable or difficult to come by.

[StarTrekDoc]

Just addressing @burritos general question whether producing a unit of vehicle is anywhere close to profitability.  My over simplified answer is yes.

It's like asking my cost of my salaried position as a primary care physician in the large institution is profitable to the wRVU that I bring in directly on a F2F visit.  There are so many variables to cost that one can easily say we a loss leader (get that one all the time) or if we're really a benefit to the system.

It's a durable good just like your refrigerator and washer machine and HVAC and home builders.

If you like the product, go buy it and enjoy it.

[jhenry]

My 2 cents: Regardless of how bullish somebody may be on Tesla, I don't think the expected gain in light of the expected (or historic) volatility justifies investing in the company by an amount larger than its % contribution to the domestic equities market. I am doubtful that even those who devote their entire careers to security analysis with a focus on a particular industry are able to consistently beat the market. (See https://amzn.to/2BjTwE6).

Certainly, contrary views make a market go round.

[Zaphod]

Tim wrote:

@startrekdoc,
Not once have I read Tesla’s financials or the Qtrly’s.
1) 20%’s is a cookbook number.
2) Investments don’t impact P&L
3) Building factories doesn’t impact P&L
4) R&D and screwups DO.
5) The technique is “proforma” excluding non-reoccurring items. If only this and that.
1,2,3, and 4 count. Don’t confuse reading a cash flow statement with an income statement. Solid investments, factories, R&D don’t scare investors. Cash burn and not covering S,G & A for operating profits does.
I remember some of Elon’s “tough mgt shoot for the stars”, 500k cars per year. Oops, production problems.
Cars on storage lots, closing the dealerships, suspending them. Yes volume is a problem. Elon hasn’t delivered consistently, that’s the bottom line. It hasn’t reached promised volumes. Possible, probable and likely is the investment risk. It’s been years that Elon pumps, right around the corner, but…. never hits it. Now it’s a credibility issue.

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Your suspicions are correct. They exclude many typical costs (r/d, etc..) and ignore the costs of the service centers and being your own dealer while recognizing the non discounted portion. It also allocates some supercharger costs to S, G, & A as "marketing", and funny lease accounting recognizing gross margin in first year then allocating losses to service and not revenue. Thats just the tip of the iceberg. They front load and pack the revenue side while excluding and moving costs normally associated with COGS to other areas, notably S,G,&A, services, etc...to come up with a good looking gross margin number.

Yet as they scale and sell more cars they lose more money, S, G, & A losses basically just rise in line with sales.

[Dont_know_mind]

Owning a Tesla if it goes BK could be like owning a SAAB or property which was under Realtyshares.