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  • When the company goes bankrupt might be a good time to buy a Tesla.


    • Tesla's gone through their curve 2 growing pains and survived it===now gearing up for Model Y while expanding Model 3 overseas build out with China primary target and experience on quick line setups--even in parking lots!.

      All the while rest of industry continues to struggle with launching anything : Mazda, Toyota, Ford, VW - or ramp up volume to compete : Volvo, Audi, BMW.

      Model X+S continues to eat the premium market's lunch.

      Model 3 will hit 300k; and Model Y launches in end 2019-early2020 --  expect $40k entry level.  They may not even force upgrades and still be profitable and cheaper than anyone.  Niro is the closest Y competitor and severely production hampered.




      • ya I feel like the fact they have made it this far bodes well


        • Remains to be seen. Of course that can be said for anyone. The primary concern is not the growing pains.
          The volumes communicated for profitability were 500,000. The burnout of the production management is not a sign that builds an organization. Growing on a faulty model isn’t wise. Innovation is fine, but it takes organizational talent.


          • They definitely had growing pains and poor management decisions as many companies.   I see it as not staying with a repeated problem and moving forward from them, jettison the wrong, and make it better.

            Autopilot - coop with mobileeye went to its limits and Tesla moved on -- it took nearly 1.5 years to parity, but now the product is arguably significantly improved on where mobileeye is and a lot cheaper too to deploy at scale and capabilities.

            SolarCity - poor purchase/investment, but leveraging batteries to stabilize that division and making inroads now with jiggering the business model

            Model 3 - mechanized too aggressively; retooled and redesigned and built another line in the parking lot --- oh snap, they didn't -- yes they did.

            Stores - costly stores?   going online -- let's see how this plays out -- never thought grocery shopping online would happen either

            Profitability is clearly happening despite the solarcity debt payments.  Continues to ramp volume and haven't tapped other potential levers like lease -  Model Y next week and timing will be interesting.  If anything early 2020, the industry is gonna have another schizm


            • Interesting takes. They are severely cash strapped. They cant keep an accountant, CFO or general counsel on board. Firing your sales teams and closing stores (even if walked back some) while slashing prices (aka any margin whatsoever, ie, profit) arent things that profitable companies ramping up do.

              Not good signs for stability or growth. Lots of perma tesla bulls (analysts and funds) signaling this weekend, which usually presages bad news. Their profitability has mostly been financial engineering. You can see this by backing out their cash levels from net investment income. It means average cash levels much lower.

              Its going to take a long time I guess, but the inevitable will occur. There just doesnt seem to be enough demand for the model 3 to remain profitable going forward, let alone survive a mild recession or even a tech slowdown.


              • No guidance on need for capital call in the future; so let's see where that takes Tesla.  These next 6months really will show sustainability and scaling efforts.

                Crazy demand for the 35,000 car with delivery for me 2weeks blossomed to 8 weeks over past week.   Don't know the programming, but would think they'll fill whatever capacity in first on anything but $35,000 car and then assign the rest of capacity to the base.   Will have at least a few weeks of those for this quarter to take a look at impacts.

                Still don't even have leases out on the Model 3 for that demand level to pull.   I do agree, America's long term plan remains the Model Y.   Model 3 demand will remain and it'll eat the sport sedan's market year-to-year.  High model Camry's/Maxima's/Accord's --- all going to take a hit as folk transition over.

                Also, another thing in Tesla's favor (or any EV).   California is largely moving to TOU (Time of Use) metering for electricity.  This will push solar+batteries heavily, and latching onto an EV program for cheap overnight rates will be a strong incentive -- we dropped our overnight charge from 0.18/kwh  to 0.08/kwh.   My car driving bill is dirt cheap now and my Infiniti gets very little love because of that.



                • There just doesnt seem to be enough demand for the model 3 to remain profitable going forward, let alone survive a mild recession or even a tech slowdown
                  Click to expand...

                  more interesting, who will buy the supercharger network?


                  • Agree that demand is the only thing that matters. Concern is it looks like Tesla has basically tapped out profitable demand for the model 3. It doesnt matter if they sell 3 million a year at 20k if theres no margin. Its a multiply by zero scenario. Their valuation is that of a hyper growth company. Now that narrative is not only in jeopardy but that of any growth or future profitability is as well. Tesla doesnt have to go bankrupt to fail as a stock, if multiples collapse even minorly say to the market average the stock would lose over 50%, if to a regular car company it would collapse more than 80%. Of course if it ever came close to even the first bit Musk would get margin called and the stock would dramatically collapse.


                    • Net profit.  just like airlines, home builders, or any manufacturing sector -- sell x% capacity at cost and the final % are the gross profits.   Scale for efficiencies and multipliers.

                      If you're talking about stock prices/valuations/speculation --- wrong thread.


                      edit -  corrected - @Peds - don't believe Tesla is interested in divesting in their network.


                      • My future used Tesla is probably being sold to someone right now.  Take good care of it for me and I will be there to buy it in 3-5 years!


                        • PE is indicative of huge growth. I can’t see that growth happening. Stock can (and in my opinion will) go down to a lower PE ratio, but company can (and possibly will) succeed. At the end of the day, is this a tech company deserving of a tech PE ratio, or a car company deserving of a respective PE? Model Y (moreso than 3) is the growth potential of the company. Their future hinges on that release. I won’t be a buyer of the stock, but may well be a buyer of the Y if it meets the hype.


                          • It's a fun company and stock to watch.  There's a lot of emotion invested in it, and that can make for some "interesting" moves.

                            Musk is probably a snake-oil salesmen, a nut, and a genius all rolled into one.

                            Overall, it can be a great car, and a bad stock at the same time.

                            I'll probably get one...  when electric cars are >50% of all cars on the road.


                            • Agreed Musk is all three.   Ford wasn't a saint either when he changed the industry.

                              We've had the Model 3 for just over 21,000 miles now.   Going to put it through a Grand Canyon trip next month and Route 66 trip to have some fun with it and stretch those batteries to see how this supercharger thing really performs.  We've used it a few times for kicks and giggles, but never as a true usage on distance trips as the 310miles got us plenty far on trips -- even to LA downtown and back without charge.

                              As far as a daily sedan -- it has easily replaced our Infiniti G37 as the family fun car and daily workhorse.

                              Looking forward to the Y model to replace the CR-V --  we were going to go with the Niro EV, but if the Y comes out 2020, we'll replace at that time the CR-V and Infiniti Both.


                              • But one needs to think outside the box. May I have a few seed investors please.

                                When you combine drone technology with self driving navigation, it’s fair easy to see how one hops in their person drone, “Mario cart, take me to the grocery store.”
                                The map pops up and chooses to fly today for the short cut, or the road due to winds. Either way, you or your child can easily go to the store?
                                Why? Because you WANT TO! No hunting parking spots, communication is two way.

                                By the way, drone paths are altitude adjusted, maybe 15 stacks high. “Dronz” and “My Dronz” are copyrighted.

                                Think George Jetson. It’s not new or original.