Tesla

[jfoxcpacfp]

abds wrote:

Will any of these things happen in a sustainable (i.e. profitable/affordable) way?

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To hijack my own thread, I don't believe that is the mainstream definition of "sustainable", is it? I like the capitalist version just fine, but don't know that many people would agree w/me.

[Zaphod]

Elon Musks greatest attribute is the ability to spin an amazing story, and time crazy announcements to keep interest in the story and the stock of his companies up. He is contributing a lot to world overall with inspiration and such, but itd be foolish to not also see through much of the bs. He didnt start Tesla, he took it over when it seemed like he could make money from it, and he as a general rule takes a lot of credit for founder/inventor type activity when he for the most part is financier and showman. People tend to forget all the bs announcements and proclamations as they fade into oblivion never to be seen again after the stock price is held afloat and a secondary offering is sold off. He has even had large press type conferences for just such purposes. People are catching on finally. I used to be a big Elon fan, but the more I learned and saw in action, the less I became so. He just is what he is.

It always cracks me up when people talk about the company and they can only talk about Elon, mars or some other pipe dream that is highly unlikely to happen, over estimating their tech and dont know anything about the fundamentals or issues they face which are severe. They have literally never delivered on a target date or production size, and to anyone that knows anything what they have stated with their current build out is impossible anyway, he knows this too which makes it bad. He rolls out products like the Power wall when released wasnt even useful in capacity, amps, etc...was uneconomical and faded into oblivion after a couple months (have since released v2).

Now maybe his crazy ideas do actually drive his companies and even progress for all of us which is great, but doesnt absolve his sleaziness at all. People love stories and great story tellers, but they also make us very subject to just giving in to our biases and being taken advantage of as you lose total perspective. Take away Elons flashy tactics from his companies and besides spaceX you have two failing companies that would soon be under. How about Boeings rocket program? No one seems to know theyve had 100 successful launches with no failures, but everyone is impressed with SpaceXs 18-2 record? Granted the idea is great, just demonstrating the story behind the actual product is the main driver, as the passionate responses above and to this will only serve to further show.

P.S. can Zuck be president? Um...yes, literally anyone can be president now pretty much. We've cleared up that debate forever.

[nachos31]

I was unaware of the points that Zaphod is making regarding his unsavory practices, etc., which is disappointing. However, I do think that pushing for these seemingly out of reach goals is fantastic--I think pushing the new frontier has always been what America has been about. That people are even talking about distant space travel, colonizing other planets, and hyperloops, etc., as more attainable is an achievement. Investments and attention in these areas will lead to innovations that lead to cool products/tech that I'm excited to see even if they don't, for example, get us to Mars in my lifetime.

To Johanna's original question: I don't own a Tesla but have ridden in a friend's. I made the mistake of asking what the acceleration was like. Closest I'll ever feel to riding in a rocket. I guess acceleration in an electric car like that is more an on/off switch than a ramping up of a traditional motor. Very comfortable on the inside as well with a lot of visual appeal. That said, would I ever buy one? Not planning on it, but maybe if I want to feel like I'm riding in a rocket again. Then again, if Musk has his way, maybe I could be riding a Tesla rocket to Mars someday.

[Zaphod]

You can always rent one, I have and it was a blast. I am not impressed with the interior or stereo, it is a 120k car after all (if you're going to do it you do it obviously).

There is a lot more unsavory under the hood unfortunately. I have been following Tesla for years now, before the Roadster came out, probably would have qualified as a fanboy in 2011-13ish. In that time I just came across more and more stuff I am less than impressed with. People love to think its about something else, but really boils down to money, he is obsessed with money and fame. Yes his means turn out to be useful to people which is great, but dont think that people arent getting hurt because they are. Just read the comments section on a Tesla article to see the blind devotion followed by their life savings being in this one company (there was a recent tweet to this effect, just absolutely nuts).

I read all the sides, and unfortunately the bears are right. This company (tesla) unless saved by political ties (he sure is trying now, see twitter) will go down in flames eventually. Mars is absolutely unimportant as far as Musk is concerned, its simply a great distraction. For those serious Tesla folks, hop on to Seeking Alpha (not a great place to spend time though) and read some of the for/against articles and the litany of crazy comments from both sides. You can learn a lot.

 

P.P.S.-Who says those on this board dont have wild dreams? I have some crazy dreams/ideas and things I wouldnt mind doing. I do not have the luxury of being a younger person and having/knowing this, I do now have responsibility and lack of several hundred million dollars (as well as some technical knowledge in some related fields) to run my crazy ideas for several years until marketable.

[CM]

I am interested only because Tesla seems closest to fully autonomous driving (if there is any truth to company projections). I drive modest cars until they fall apart, but a reliable, fully autonomous vehicle would be a game-changer for me.

[Zaphod]

CM wrote:

I am interested only because Tesla seems closest to fully autonomous driving (if there is any truth to company projections). I drive modest cars until they fall apart, but a reliable, fully autonomous vehicle would be a game-changer for me.

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There is not, they are far behind and have worse tech. They are just very loud and very willing to let you risk your life to market their product and produce hype. Their automated tech company dropped them due to the above reasons and they had to go to inferior products because of that. All this can be found in the companies respective financial disclosures. Audi is and has been at the forefront, as have many of the traditional companies. They are just a lot less willing to let you or their brand take a hit to push a narrative.

Im glad tesla is advancing the idea, but they didnt have to risk peoples lives to do so.

[CM]

Zaphod wrote:

CM wrote:

I am interested only because Tesla seems closest to fully autonomous driving (if there is any truth to company projections). I drive modest cars until they fall apart, but a reliable, fully autonomous vehicle would be a game-changer for me.

Click to expand…

There is not, they are far behind and have worse tech. They are just very loud and very willing to let you risk your life to market their product and produce hype. Their automated tech company dropped them due to the above reasons and they had to go to inferior products because of that. All this can be found in the companies respective financial disclosures. Audi is and has been at the forefront, as have many of the traditional companies. They are just a lot less willing to let you or their brand take a hit to push a narrative.

Im glad tesla is advancing the idea, but they didnt have to risk peoples lives to do so.

Click to expand...

The NTSB report on the famous crash seems to suggest the technology saves lives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/tesla-s-autopilot-vindicated-with-40-percent-drop-in-crashes.

[abds]

Zaphod wrote:

Elon Musks greatest attribute is the ability to spin an amazing story, and time crazy announcements to keep interest in the story and the stock of his companies up. He is contributing a lot to world overall with inspiration and such, but itd be foolish to not also see through much of the bs. He didnt start Tesla, he took it over when it seemed like he could make money from it, and he as a general rule takes a lot of credit for founder/inventor type activity when he for the most part is financier and showman. People tend to forget all the bs announcements and proclamations as they fade into oblivion never to be seen again after the stock price is held afloat and a secondary offering is sold off. He has even had large press type conferences for just such purposes. People are catching on finally. I used to be a big Elon fan, but the more I learned and saw in action, the less I became so. He just is what he is.

It always cracks me up when people talk about the company and they can only talk about Elon, mars or some other pipe dream that is highly unlikely to happen, over estimating their tech and dont know anything about the fundamentals or issues they face which are severe. They have literally never delivered on a target date or production size, and to anyone that knows anything what they have stated with their current build out is impossible anyway, he knows this too which makes it bad. He rolls out products like the Power wall when released wasnt even useful in capacity, amps, etc…was uneconomical and faded into oblivion after a couple months (have since released v2).

Now maybe his crazy ideas do actually drive his companies and even progress for all of us which is great, but doesnt absolve his sleaziness at all. People love stories and great story tellers, but they also make us very subject to just giving in to our biases and being taken advantage of as you lose total perspective. Take away Elons flashy tactics from his companies and besides spaceX you have two failing companies that would soon be under. How about Boeings rocket program? No one seems to know theyve had 100 successful launches with no failures, but everyone is impressed with SpaceXs 18-2 record? Granted the idea is great, just demonstrating the story behind the actual product is the main driver, as the passionate responses above and to this will only serve to further show.

P.S. can Zuck be president? Um…yes, literally anyone can be president now pretty much. We’ve cleared up that debate forever.

Click to expand...

I agree. I had typed out a much longer response than my earlier one, and touched on much of this before deleting it. Regardless of his "sleaziness," I think the way he pushes the envelope with innovation is a good thing, and the attention he demands is what brings those things to the forefront. I think what he's doing will drive progress in a lot of his fields. Maybe I'll be proven wrong and every one of these businesses is a failure in the next 10 years and he's laughing at us all with $50B in the bank because that's all he ever cared about. We'll see.

[Zaphod]

CM wrote:

Zaphod wrote:

CM wrote:

I am interested only because Tesla seems closest to fully autonomous driving (if there is any truth to company projections). I drive modest cars until they fall apart, but a reliable, fully autonomous vehicle would be a game-changer for me.

Click to expand…

There is not, they are far behind and have worse tech. They are just very loud and very willing to let you risk your life to market their product and produce hype. Their automated tech company dropped them due to the above reasons and they had to go to inferior products because of that. All this can be found in the companies respective financial disclosures. Audi is and has been at the forefront, as have many of the traditional companies. They are just a lot less willing to let you or their brand take a hit to push a narrative.

Im glad tesla is advancing the idea, but they didnt have to risk peoples lives to do so.

Click to expand…

The NTSB report on the famous crash seems to suggest the technology saves lives: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/tesla-s-autopilot-vindicated-with-40-percent-drop-in-crashes.

Click to expand...

That is slightly misleading. Its between their own cars, not comparably priced vehicles or all vehicles. It does not say that the rate is better than other cars, just Teslas without it. Its exactly the same as the national all miles traveled data, and much higher than comparative luxury vehicles. They used the same knowingly misleading type of statistical comparison to make their cars seem crazy safe before.The real problem is how it was marketed, as autopilot, as in you dont have to be doing anything. This leads to riskier behavior than is warranted and things happen. There are tons of videos online showing people reading, eating, and even sleeping on the freeway in their Teslas! That is crazy. This was the result of how they hyped it, they dont have any capability that someone else didnt, they were just reckless with it.

The likely reason they had a higher crash rate is probably because people cannot handle the car as its power is insane it really is, and people with zero training are definitely at higher risk. Given the acceleration etc is part of the awesomeness they also drive it more recklessly. Anyone who has a powerful car, and really everyone should take a high level driving course it is a great investment in safety.

In contrast there are 9 car models with zero fatalities with 100 million plus miles that have been around forever, like the Lexus RX350. Its actually not terribly uncommon to have a low crash rate with luxury cars, but Musk chose to compare to all cars since it worked his angle better. There is coverage on this if interested.

[Zaphod]

abds wrote:

I agree. I had typed out a much longer response than my earlier one, and touched on much of this before deleting it. Regardless of his “sleaziness,” I think the way he pushes the envelope with innovation is a good thing, and the attention he demands is what brings those things to the forefront. I think what he’s doing will drive progress in a lot of his fields. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong and every one of these businesses is a failure in the next 10 years and he’s laughing at us all with $50B in the bank because that’s all he ever cared about. We’ll see.

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Its hard to say now that Trump is in office and one of his buddies is in his ear, and also a general lenience towards less than honest business practices is the expected environment now. No one sees a tighter regulatory environment or crackdown on shady businesses now.

[Complete_newbie]

I completely disagree with zaphod. Yea he took over feels etc yes he clamors to media and gets attention and barely keeping company afloat but zaphod you are not doing what he is doing are you? He isn't an aeronautical engineer. He has a knack of seeing things different. Don't invest with him he didn't ask you to. Plenty of people are though. If we don't try how the ************************ are we going to progress?

This whole capital thing people just moving money from here to there what's the point if we don't break in new technology ? If he took company over so what? I drove that old roadster in Palo Alto before Tessa became Tessa and that was musks vision. If he didn't take company over it'll still be a roadster - the side project of two geeks

if anything I'm down with more people trying new things not sit there and invest in ... bonds.

[Complete_newbie]

Oh and forgot - clearly you think you are as talented as Musk? If so people will throw money at you.

Bunch of haters. Unreal.

[Zaphod]

Complete_newbie wrote:

Oh and forgot – clearly you think you are as talented as Musk? If so people will throw money at you.

Bunch of haters. Unreal.

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I am sorry to have offended your hero.

Why is it hating to unemotionally assess a company? Im looking at it from an investment stand point. You have a snake oil salesman type leader who consistently self deals, no matter what actual achievements, and no executives can stay at the company. Musk has a consistent habit of over selling, over promising, not disclosing material facts, and putting out product that is under tested and over hyped. This puts people at risk and is dishonest to say the least. He does this knowing full well it isnt true, and is material but likes to act as if its not. These are all red flags.

He has still accomplished a lot and done a whole bunch for the fields he is in, except solar, things would be no different without solar city and it went bankrupt anyway before the bail in. All of these things can be true, the good and the bad, thats real life.

I never said I was as talented as Musk, just that I have some crazy ideas too, but Im older now and have already chose my life. I have no resentment about that. I dont hold some phantom grudge against him for getting after it from a young age, thats great. Or think that he isnt doing anything important. Just that on balance there are lots of reasons to be concerned and conservative when thinking about investing in such a company. It really doesnt matter what Im doing in life anyway, it has no bearing on the accomplishments of Tesla, thats just a fallacious approach to an argument.

Feeling personally attacked when someone discusses a CEO/company is a big indicator that you have a unobjective viewpoint and if one were placing money on the line you'd want to really assess your position even more thoroughly since you'd be highly susceptible to confirmation bias and overlooking possible dangerous scenarios.

[Complete_newbie]

Look I agree it's a terrible investment. I have not invested in testa

My perspective is on his scientific achievement and his knowledge base in many scientific topics.

Am not disagreeing on his companies sinking though. His showboating etc sure I can by that - difference is while you are hung up on this I am overlooking it as he is pushing the envelope. Where is the line ? Not sure. But I like he breaks the mold and tries things; few do. In a world where people want guarantees and a formula to follow for "succeeds" well he is an odd man out and I love that about him. He isn't literally murdering people or burning money in front of me. He put in majority of his own net worth in his company which aren't doing well - shows me effort and determination not an intentional deceit to screw people out of money.

[Complete_newbie]

Typing on phone so apologies in mistakes

Anyways my piece. Steve jobs died , now Apple is rehash 2.0

Once Musk is gone it'll be spinning wheels not innovation. Suits will make money and it'll be a good investment. Whatever, an innovator left.

I understand not a good investment, but heck if I had money to throw I will burn a million just to see man on mars.

Who cares if you aren't making 10% ROI. Not everything is about money.