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  • So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter. You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.  In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.

    Click to expand...


    You seem to forget there are 400,000+ people on the reservation list for a Model 3.  These probably include folks who currently own a 3 Series or who may have previously planned to purchase a BMW 3 Series, but are now on the wait list for the Model 3 instead.  So even though the actual production of Model 3s may not contribute much to the decrease in 3 Series sales, the over 400,000 people on the reservation list probably does...

    This is far from scientific and the sample size was small, but there was an interesting poll from a Model 3 forum, asking Model 3 reservation holders what car their upcoming Model 3 will be replacing.  What was the top car in the poll?  Yep, the BMW 3 Series.  Here it is:  https://insideevs.com/poll-results-bmw-3-series-top-trade-tesla-model-3/

    If I was in the market for a BMW 3 Series, there is no way I would prefer that over a Model 3.  It really is a no brainer to me.  And as someone above stated, the Performance and AWD models aren't even out yet.  It is going to be a very interesting to see what happens!

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      The Model 3 is on track to outsell even the ICE cars in its segment, including the BMW 3 series
      Click to expand…


      This is not close to being true as of today. BMW 3 series sell more per month than current model 3s per quarter. We will have to see where it goes from here.
      Click to expand…


      Here’s a table that shows Model 3 sales along with other comparable cars.

      https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-reveal-effect-on-other-luxury-car-sales.68083/page-19#post-2725682.

      I think this data is only for the US, and I’m honestly not sure of its accuracy.  It’s obviously not an unbiased source.

      Assuming the numbers are correct, the Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 series and 4 series, Audi A4 and A6, Lexus IS and ES, among others in April.  The Mercedes C class and E class still outsold it, but not by much.  If Tesla manages to increase Model 3 production even slightly, it will pass both in the next couple of months.

      The interesting thing to me is the huge year over year drops in many of the cars on this list.  It’s impossible to say how much is due to the Model 3, but I suspect it’s part of the explanation.

      • 3 series: 5%

      • 4 series: 21%

      • A4: 8%

      • A6 24%

      • C Class: 35%


      In case it’s not obvious, I’m also a Tesla fanboy.  We bought a Model S last year and I love it.  By far the best car I’ve ever driven.  The acceleration is addicting and the Autopilot makes SoCal traffic much more bearable.  I’m hopeful that they’ll be able to get their production issues and be successful.
      Click to expand…


      So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter.

      You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.

      wil

      In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.
      Click to expand...


      The Tesla S isn't built to compete against the 3 series.  The Model 3 is.   Model 3 production is now closing in on 4000/week = 12000/month.  That means it's already outselling it's most popular competition and still within it's ramp up AND hasn't gotten past day 1 reservations-- and that's before a large portion of fanboy waiting for the dual motor/performance option to release next week.   Currently the wait is 3-6 weeks after configuration.  Let's see what the tail is on delivery once that option drops.

      Like Zaphod said, by September, we'll have a pretty good idea how much impact the 3 is having on competition sector sales.  With 400,000+ reservations, Tesla already has prebaked sales whereas rest needs to fight to get theirs off the lots.

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        The Model 3 is on track to outsell even the ICE cars in its segment, including the BMW 3 series
        Click to expand…


        This is not close to being true as of today. BMW 3 series sell more per month than current model 3s per quarter. We will have to see where it goes from here.
        Click to expand…


        Here’s a table that shows Model 3 sales along with other comparable cars.

        https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-reveal-effect-on-other-luxury-car-sales.68083/page-19#post-2725682.

        I think this data is only for the US, and I’m honestly not sure of its accuracy.  It’s obviously not an unbiased source.

        Assuming the numbers are correct, the Model 3 outsold the BMW 3 series and 4 series, Audi A4 and A6, Lexus IS and ES, among others in April.  The Mercedes C class and E class still outsold it, but not by much.  If Tesla manages to increase Model 3 production even slightly, it will pass both in the next couple of months.

        The interesting thing to me is the huge year over year drops in many of the cars on this list.  It’s impossible to say how much is due to the Model 3, but I suspect it’s part of the explanation.

        • 3 series: 5%

        • 4 series: 21%

        • A4: 8%

        • A6 24%

        • C Class: 35%


        In case it’s not obvious, I’m also a Tesla fanboy.  We bought a Model S last year and I love it.  By far the best car I’ve ever driven.  The acceleration is addicting and the Autopilot makes SoCal traffic much more bearable.  I’m hopeful that they’ll be able to get their production issues and be successful.
        Click to expand…


        So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter.

        You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.

        wil

        In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.
        Click to expand…


        The Tesla S isn’t built to compete against the 3 series.  The Model 3 is.   Model 3 production is now closing in on 4000/week = 12000/month.  That means it’s already outselling it’s most popular competition and still within it’s ramp up AND hasn’t gotten past day 1 reservations– and that’s before a large portion of fanboy waiting for the dual motor/performance option to release next week.   Currently the wait is 3-6 weeks after configuration.  Let’s see what the tail is on delivery once that option drops.

        Like Zaphod said, by September, we’ll have a pretty good idea how much impact the 3 is having on competition sector sales.  With 400,000+ reservations, Tesla already has prebaked sales whereas rest needs to fight to get theirs off the lots.
        Click to expand...


        Just because it isnt built to doesnt mean it wasnt, its a similar demographic. The S cannibalized all midrange luxury types across the spectrum. Agree that with 3 actually here its much more of a direct competition.

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        • So far this year the 3 series have sold nearly 10k cars per month, that is down significantly from last years. But it has almost nothing to do with the model 3. Model S, definitely. Model 3 barely sold 7k or so last quarter. You’ll have to wait for many months of data to roll in before you can see any effects, for the model 3, its just barely got started production wise.  In the next couple years there should be so many choices for vehicles that will fit almost any niche.

          Click to expand…


          You seem to forget there are 400,000+ people on the reservation list for a Model 3.  These probably include folks who currently own a 3 Series or who may have previously planned to purchase a BMW 3 Series, but are now on the wait list for the Model 3 instead.  So even though the actual production of Model 3s may not contribute much to the decrease in 3 Series sales, the over 400,000 people on the reservation list probably does…

          This is far from scientific and the sample size was small, but there was an interesting poll from a Model 3 forum, asking Model 3 reservation holders what car their upcoming Model 3 will be replacing.  What was the top car in the poll?  Yep, the BMW 3 Series.  Here it is:  https://insideevs.com/poll-results-bmw-3-series-top-trade-tesla-model-3/

          If I was in the market for a BMW 3 Series, there is no way I would prefer that over a Model 3.  It really is a no brainer to me.  And as someone above stated, the Performance and AWD models aren’t even out yet.  It is going to be a very interesting to see what happens!
          Click to expand...


          No one actually knows how many people are on the reservation list, nor what the conversion ratio to delivery is. We'll know when there is hard data in. I agree now that is out it is a more direct competition to the 3 series, but it hasnt been, because it hasnt existed until recently.

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          • Does everyone on the reservation list get the tax credit?

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            • Does everyone on the reservation list get the tax credit?
              Click to expand...


              No one gets anything until they actually buy. Until then its a 0% interest loan to tesla. Some will likely be lucky to get it back.

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              • Does everyone on the reservation list get the tax credit?
                Click to expand…


                No one gets anything until they actually buy. Until then its a 0% interest loan to tesla. Some will likely be lucky to get it back.
                Click to expand...


                What I meant was if they've locked a position in the line, do they still get the credit even if there is a delay in acquisition of the vehicle?

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                • Does everyone on the reservation list get the tax credit?
                  Click to expand…


                  No one gets anything until they actually buy. Until then its a 0% interest loan to tesla. Some will likely be lucky to get it back.
                  Click to expand…


                  What I meant was if they’ve locked a position in the line, do they still get the credit even if there is a delay in acquisition of the vehicle?
                  Click to expand...


                  No.  The day you purchase the take delivery of the vehicle is when you can claim fed tax credit.  If you are 400k on the list, don't expect a tax credit.  It'll expire next year.

                  Comment


                  • The 7500$ Federal Tax credit starts to sunset at once the manufacturer crosses the 200,000 vehicle delivered in the US.   In Tesla's case, that's anticipated to happen sometime this summer.  It's important whether that's June 30th or July 1st.   Because the sunset starts the moment #200,000 is reported and that remainder of the quarter counts, then the following quarter gets the full $7500 rebate.  It then drops to $3750 and again further after another two quarters and fully sunsets.

                    That is why the ramp up AND the crossing of the 200,000 is best timed for July 1st for Tesla Buyers.   It means nothing to Tesla's bottom line, but everything to the buyers-- which one can argue is a captive audience, so Tesla really shouldn't (doesn't) care when the 200,000 vehicle is delivered -- ie don't hold back deliveries one iota.

                    As far as reservations --- to date, no one beyond Day 1 (Mar 31, 2016) has been able to configure the Model 3 for delivery.  That means they haven't blown through 200,000 of the 400,000+ reservations folk have plunked down $1000 and Tesla held for 2 years.    A lot of folk have deferred to configure until the dual motors are out.   So release to configuration will really slow down next week IMHO unless Telsa is able to rampup truly to their 8000/week goal soon.

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                    • So when the tax credit is gone, does the price of the model 3 drop by the same amount?

                       

                      Elon has some bond problems.  Going to be lucky to see 2020 as a company.

                      Comment






                      • So when the tax credit is gone, does the price of the model 3 drop by the same amount?

                         

                        Elon has some bond problems.  Going to be lucky to see 2020 as a company.
                        Click to expand...


                        Why?  Similarly equipped 330i to the Long Range 3 which is the current machine available = specs are nearly the same as is the pricing ~$50,000.

                        That's what they said in 2010, 2013, 2015, and now 2018.   Better against Musk is only a little better odds than against Bezos.    Musk is this generation's Jobs.

                        Comment






                        • The 7500$ Federal Tax credit starts to sunset at once the manufacturer crosses the 200,000 vehicle delivered in the US.   In Tesla’s case, that’s anticipated to happen sometime this summer.  It’s important whether that’s June 30th or July 1st.   Because the sunset starts the moment #200,000 is reported and that remainder of the quarter counts, then the following quarter gets the full $7500 rebate.  It then drops to $3750 and again further after another two quarters and fully sunsets.

                          That is why the ramp up AND the crossing of the 200,000 is best timed for July 1st for Tesla Buyers.   It means nothing to Tesla’s bottom line, but everything to the buyers– which one can argue is a captive audience, so Tesla really shouldn’t (doesn’t) care when the 200,000 vehicle is delivered — ie don’t hold back deliveries one iota.

                          As far as reservations — to date, no one beyond Day 1 (Mar 31, 2016) has been able to configure the Model 3 for delivery.  That means they haven’t blown through 200,000 of the 400,000+ reservations folk have plunked down $1000 and Tesla held for 2 years.    A lot of folk have deferred to configure until the dual motors are out.   So release to configuration will really slow down next week IMHO unless Telsa is able to rampup truly to their 8000/week goal soon.
                          Click to expand...


                          My Model 3 reservation wasn't made until May 2017.  I received my initial configuration e-mail over a month ago for estimated delivery in the Toronto area for 4-8 weeks after submission of configuration.  Not a current Tesla owner.  Still debating on whether to defer. Rebates in Ontario are currently just over USD 11k. Rebates have just recently been restricted to hydrogen and electric vehicles (including hybrids) with retail prices under USD 60K so no longer includes the Models S and X.

                          Comment









                          • So when the tax credit is gone, does the price of the model 3 drop by the same amount?

                             

                            Elon has some bond problems.  Going to be lucky to see 2020 as a company.
                            Click to expand…


                            Why?  Similarly equipped 330i to the Long Range 3 which is the current machine available = specs are nearly the same as is the pricing ~$50,000.

                            That’s what they said in 2010, 2013, 2015, and now 2018.   Better against Musk is only a little better odds than against Bezos.    Musk is this generation’s Jobs.
                            Click to expand...


                            At those times they were still showing very impressive growth and had the ability to access capital markets at will. Now they are flatlining growth wise, though I can see q3 and q4 being pretty good with if the model 3 gets moving with any volume at all. Otherwise its a correct assessment. They have some serious debt obligation upcoming, an inability to refinance to better rates due to them rising and their credit rating going down, very little cash on hand, all the while burning over a billion dollars a quarter.

                            They cant produce enough cars to get to a profitable level without serious capex spend, but they dont have the money and are running out of time. Maybe they do a miracle capital raise or stock issuance, but honestly it should have been done by now. Some think they havent due to SEC restrictions, possible but unknown.

                            It is no understatement to say Tesla is in a very dire situation financially, they are leveraged to the hilt, arent profitable, cant make it up on volume (since not profitable in first place), and all of the tricks theyve used to make money (zev, credits) etc...are running out. At a coincident timeline the competition is heating up and will be delivering cars with similar stats that actually have an interior since those companies dont have to skimp out to pay the electric bill.

                            You can only fight reality so long. I admit its always longer than it looks like, but the times are coming soon. Again, they could have a decent H2, but it wont change the long term problems. They simply dont have the plant size/capability to produce where they said/needed. Everyones known this for years, and it just keeps turning out to be true, while Musks words keep being lies. That will continue for the foreseeable future. Panasonic is very concerned as well. At some point suppliers and partners will stop supplying, as one of teslas main accounting tricks for earnings is not to pay bills. Those companies are starting to worry they will be left holding the bag.

                            Comment


                            • Agree....risk is totally there. No legacy manufacturer was willing to sink the dollars nor able to since shareholders wouldn't tolerate such a venture. Just like amazon was able to stake the new frontier, Tesla has grabbed with it's giga factory. That is the main play of the entire scheme to profitability and sustainable production of an 'affordable' mass market car.

                              Nummi has the capabilities to produce 400,000+ vehicles so the production site isn't the issue. It's ironic that the main issue to the rampup was TOO much automation on the battery pack production. The second production line is coming online in June so that's going to allow the assembly line to push past the
                              20,000 per month goals.

                              Tesla has been able to sell all those Zev credits and probably will have even more market as Cali cranks up the percentage beyond 2.5% and the legacies can't count hybrids anymore and even the phev is reduced unless it has a significant battery....hence the Toyota Prius. prime introduction and just cutting it for credit. The market is there for carb zev and that'll help the bottom line.

                              Does Tesla have a financial challenge? Absolutely. It also had a product that folk are willing to but and pay a premium and working out (slowly and painfully) the manufacturing kinks. I doubt Tesla will have troubles fund raising.

                              As folk have pointed out the tesla s is a bit dated, yet sales have remained stable despite a 8 year bodyframe. What vehicle has done that? The refresh will come when they get Tesla 3 batterypack rampup completed as the new Tesla s will use that new battery form too. The largest capital expansion is behind them now (gigafactory built) and build out costs will be significantly lower. It's about cranking up production now....devil in the details.....but this is the guy who lands rockets on moving floating barges

                              Comment






                              • Agree….risk is totally there. No legacy manufacturer was willing to sink the dollars nor able to since shareholders wouldn’t tolerate such a venture. Just like amazon was able to stake the new frontier, Tesla has grabbed with it’s giga factory. That is the main play of the entire scheme to profitability and sustainable production of an ‘affordable’ mass market car.

                                Nummi has the capabilities to produce 400,000+ vehicles so the production site isn’t the issue. It’s ironic that the main issue to the rampup was TOO much automation on the battery pack production. The second production line is coming online in June so that’s going to allow the assembly line to push past the
                                20,000 per month goals.

                                Tesla has been able to sell all those Zev credits and probably will have even more market as Cali cranks up the percentage beyond 2.5% and the legacies can’t count hybrids anymore and even the phev is reduced unless it has a significant battery….hence the Toyota Prius. prime introduction and just cutting it for credit. The market is there for carb zev and that’ll help the bottom line.

                                Does Tesla have a financial challenge? Absolutely. It also had a product that folk are willing to but and pay a premium and working out (slowly and painfully) the manufacturing kinks. I doubt Tesla will have troubles fund raising.

                                As folk have pointed out the tesla s is a bit dated, yet sales have remained stable despite a 8 year bodyframe. What vehicle has done that? The refresh will come when they get Tesla 3 batterypack rampup completed as the new Tesla s will use that new battery form too. The largest capital expansion is behind them now (gigafactory built) and build out costs will be significantly lower. It’s about cranking up production now….devil in the details…..but this is the guy who lands rockets on moving floating barges
                                Click to expand...


                                Amazons debt was always low/stable, but recently increased (as has their cash flow, etc...), so not comparable really. The giga factory was a mistake from a manufacturing and longevity process, not bad for a cash grab.

                                Everyone figured out how to build cars in the 80s/90s. Its ironic that Tesla is in the Nummi factory where lean manufacturing was brought to this country by Toyota. Toyota learned about too much automation being trouble in the 80s. Tesla is a tiny fraction as productive as GM with their first go at Nummi, and will likely never get to where they ended up in a couple years.

                                Likewise I dont see them retooling the factory for a newer version of their cars when thats incredibly expensive and they just cant afford it. Every issue Tesla has had, was easily and rightly predicted by anyone with knowledge of the car industry. The only thing they couldnt know was how great a financier Musk was.
                                Today, Tesla is having the same frustrating experience. Tesla is manufacturing its cars at a plant in Fremont, California, that was formerly a famous GM/Toyota joint factory called NUMMI. According to Automotive News, NUMMI had 2,470 employees in 1985, its first year in operation, and produced 64,764 cars. By 1997, it had 4,844 workers and produced 357,809 vehicles.

                                By contrast, Automotive news estimates that Tesla has somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 workers in 2016 (the San Jose Mercury News said it was "about 10,000" last year) and manufactured just 83,922 vehicles. That means Tesla's plant in 2016 was less than half as productive, on a per-worker basis, as it was during the first year of GM management—and less than one fifth as productive as it was during NUMMI's heyday in the 1990s.

                                I wish Tesla was a better company, the cars are very cool and the idea is great. The company is awful however, theres just no getting around it.

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