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Who is going to be the next United States President?

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  • #61
    I think people will always push some wildly over reaching idea in the name of some dumb idea/ideal. Then it swings back. Humans have a hard time riding the average and that seems how it goes.

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    • #62
      I started this thread about two months ago and just wondering if the feeling has changed at all.

      The most responses so far have been for Hillary Clinton.

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      • #63
        I dont think so, just that Trump has almost an insurmountable lead for the GOP and is the almost certain nominee, scary. Hillary still vastly more electable than Sanders, even given his impressive surge (this according to polls and pundits such as Nate Silver). So still Hillary.

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        • #64
          I'm more confused about the Republican nominee than ever, especially if the NYT almost-story is true (secret tape). As for Hillary, I'm more convinced that I was that she is unelectable, due to her low turnouts. Just heard on Morning in American that MA has had 20k dem voters change to rep to vote for Trump.
          Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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          • #65
            It is a very odd cycle for sure. I read a hilarious (and hopefully true) piece that there arent enough morons in America to elect Trump. Sure, if you divide the country in two and then divide one half into 5 he can, but not on a larger scale where he'd need 50+%. I sure hope that is correct. The problem with the primaries and kind of our whole way of doing this is that they are very unrepresentative of the US as a whole, and who wins that might be the least competitive person nationally. Thats kind of the issue with the GOP in general and extremism overall, works well in tight knit spaces, crushes you overall.

            Hoping for a surprise independent or late entry that is not awful.

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            • #66
              Have you read Donald Trump and the Politics of the Middle Finger?

              I guess I'm in the minority, but I don't think Trump is a clown or that the people who support him are morons. I think Scott Adams explains his popularity quite well here. Personally, I'm an ABC voter (anybody but Clinton). That doesn't include Bernie, but he has no chance, anyway.
              Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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              • #67
                So to bring it back to finance a bit, I was wondering "If Donald Trump won would he be the richest US President ever?"  Lucky for me, Google exists and so I just did some research.

                Donald Trump would be the richest US President... his net wealth is greater than every other President combined.  That's a lot of money (billions).

                It also turns out that Bernie Sanders has a net worth of $300,000.

                And our current President, Barack Obama, has a 5.625% interest rate loan on a 30 yr mortgage for a $600k home. He admitted he would save money if he refinanced his mortgage, but said, “when you’re president you have to be a little careful about these transactions.”

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                • #68


                  And our current President, Barack Obama, has a 5.625% interest rate loan on a 30 yr mortgage for a $600k home.
                  Click to expand...


                  hmmm - he must not read WCI.

                  So is your presidential research adjusted for inflation? That's actually hard to believe. We've had some fairly well-to-do presidents. 0toh, I was pretty blown away looking over Trump's financial disclosure statement.
                  Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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                  • #69




                    So is your presidential research adjusted for inflation?
                    Click to expand...


                    Yes, it is adjusted.  Here is the link:Net wealth of US Presidents

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                    • #70




                      Have you read Donald Trump and the Politics of the Middle Finger?

                      I guess I’m in the minority, but I don’t think Trump is a clown or that the people who support him are morons. I think Scott Adams explains his popularity quite well here. Personally, I’m an ABC voter (anybody but Clinton). That doesn’t include Bernie, but he has no chance, anyway.
                      Click to expand...


                      I dont think his popularity is any surprise whatsoever, its backlash, and an artful use of being in touch with the passionate, and ability to swiftly change when that is no longer useful (he pretty much outlined his whole campaign in the Art of the Deal). If nominated he will pivot to center and tone down immensely, why? Because thats the only way he could have a shot. This may anger some prior supporters, but as mentioned, they are too small to have an impact and may vote along party lines anyway, and being the masters of cognitive dissonance that they are, will likely adapt to the new trump and make themselves compatible reasons why its ok.

                      If real people actually believed what he said he should be removed immediately for making campaign promises that are de facto international war crimes and proclamations on how he will be a unabashed despot. However, no one actually believes it. I pretty much dont either, but its not worth even the slightest risk.

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                      • #71


                        Yes, it is adjusted.  Here is the link:Net wealth of US Presidents
                        Click to expand...


                        That was fascinating. Thanks for providing.
                        Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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                        • #72







                          Have you read Donald Trump and the Politics of the Middle Finger?

                          I guess I’m in the minority, but I don’t think Trump is a clown or that the people who support him are morons. I think Scott Adams explains his popularity quite well here. Personally, I’m an ABC voter (anybody but Clinton). That doesn’t include Bernie, but he has no chance, anyway.
                          Click to expand…


                          I dont think his popularity is any surprise whatsoever, its backlash, and an artful use of being in touch with the passionate, and ability to swiftly change when that is no longer useful (he pretty much outlined his whole campaign in the Art of the Deal). If nominated he will pivot to center and tone down immensely, why? Because thats the only way he could have a shot. This may anger some prior supporters, but as mentioned, they are too small to have an impact and may vote along party lines anyway, and being the masters of cognitive dissonance that they are, will likely adapt to the new trump and make themselves compatible reasons why its ok.

                          If real people actually believed what he said he should be removed immediately for making campaign promises that are de facto international war crimes and proclamations on how he will be a unabashed despot. However, no one actually believes it. I pretty much dont either, but its not worth even the slightest risk.
                          Click to expand...


                          I'm surprised. Although I'm no longer surprised to see how easily Hitler rose to power. Not saying Trump is Hitler, and the economic and political situation in Germany in the Great Depression was far worse than anything going on here, but a charismatic guy making wild promises and playing on peoples' fears attracts a certain percentage of people.

                          I won't be voting for Trump, even if he is the Republican nominee because I think he's a bad person. I don't like Obama's policies (and especially didn't like his lack of experience,) but I don't think he's a bad person. Probably won't vote for Clinton or Sanders either, and I always vote, so I guess I'll be looking at the third party candidates unless Rubio pulls off something very soon. I haven't voted for one of those since 2004....

                          I'm disappointed Kasich isn't more popular. It feels like he is the only adult in the room sometimes, from both parties. I wish there were an easier pathway for moderate candidates to be elected. The primary system seems to select for extremists.
                          Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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                          • #73










                            Have you read Donald Trump and the Politics of the Middle Finger?

                            I guess I’m in the minority, but I don’t think Trump is a clown or that the people who support him are morons. I think Scott Adams explains his popularity quite well here. Personally, I’m an ABC voter (anybody but Clinton). That doesn’t include Bernie, but he has no chance, anyway.
                            Click to expand…


                            I dont think his popularity is any surprise whatsoever, its backlash, and an artful use of being in touch with the passionate, and ability to swiftly change when that is no longer useful (he pretty much outlined his whole campaign in the Art of the Deal). If nominated he will pivot to center and tone down immensely, why? Because thats the only way he could have a shot. This may anger some prior supporters, but as mentioned, they are too small to have an impact and may vote along party lines anyway, and being the masters of cognitive dissonance that they are, will likely adapt to the new trump and make themselves compatible reasons why its ok.

                            If real people actually believed what he said he should be removed immediately for making campaign promises that are de facto international war crimes and proclamations on how he will be a unabashed despot. However, no one actually believes it. I pretty much dont either, but its not worth even the slightest risk.
                            Click to expand…


                            I’m surprised. Although I’m no longer surprised to see how easily Hitler rose to power. Not saying Trump is Hitler, and the economic and political situation in Germany in the Great Depression was far worse than anything going on here, but a charismatic guy making wild promises and playing on peoples’ fears attracts a certain percentage of people.

                            I won’t be voting for Trump, even if he is the Republican nominee because I think he’s a bad person. I don’t like Obama’s policies (and especially didn’t like his lack of experience,) but I don’t think he’s a bad person. Probably won’t vote for Clinton or Sanders either, and I always vote, so I guess I’ll be looking at the third party candidates unless Rubio pulls off something very soon. I haven’t voted for one of those since 2004….

                            I’m disappointed Kasich isn’t more popular. It feels like he is the only adult in the room sometimes, from both parties. I wish there were an easier pathway for moderate candidates to be elected. The primary system seems to select for extremists.
                            Click to expand...


                            I think people are afraid to make the comparsion, yet it is quite apt, and the rise is very similar and very similar rhetoric and playing off the same fears. However, as we all know, Hitler was indeed very sincere, whereas we are nearly certain Trump is not, but doesnt make him any less dangerous or worth it. In the end he is an extreme egomaniac and has a hard time thinking beyond what is best for him personally, this whole campaign may be viewed as brand marketing for him and very profitable even.

                            Kasich is the best national candidate by far, I think even many democrats find him perfectly reasonable, however due to the GOPs deal with the extremist devil a while ago, he is least likely to be nominated. Sad state of affairs. I dont like this whole primary business, really distorts things, but I dont have a solution either so...Is it really that hard to find reasonable people who want the job?

                            Hoping for an independent late run by someone who isnt an extremist.

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                            • #74
                               

                               

                              I dont like this whole primary business, really distorts things, but I dont have a solution either so…Is it really that hard to find reasonable people who want the job?Hoping for an independent late run by someone who isnt an extremist.
                              Click to expand...


                              It would seem partially logical to just do away with primaries and party affiliation and let people's views be heard by all.  People are quick to just follow the label.  Get corporate $ out of the elections.  If primaries are seen as a necessary, but party affiliation is not, maybe randomly choose the order of the states and then the top 5 get to move on to the Nov. general election.  As much as I hate Gov't handling of things, have the elections funded by the Gov't and each media source has to provide a bit of free advertising to each candidate.  Naturally, there is a maximum amount any candidate can spend.  In order to run, you have to gather a certain # of signatures.  The number has to be sensible.  A series of debates would also be publicly televised.  As the primaries progress, you have to attain some reasonable level of support to continue.  Anyway, just some thoughts of the top of my head. Of course, probably no matter what we do, it will still be a circus.

                              I don't agree that people who are supporting Trump are morons.  People are tired of career politicians only looking out for themselves and/or their corporate buddies.  Presidents are constrained by the other two branches of Gov't and have to find ways to work with them instead of against them or they won't be a successful President.

                              cd :O)
                              Yet those who wait for the LORD Will gain new strength; They will mount up with wings like eagles, They will run and not get tired, They will walk and not become weary. -- Isaiah 40:31

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                              • #75




                                 

                                 

                                I dont like this whole primary business, really distorts things, but I dont have a solution either so…Is it really that hard to find reasonable people who want the job?Hoping for an independent late run by someone who isnt an extremist. 
                                Click to expand…


                                It would seem partially logical to just do away with primaries and party affiliation and let people’s views be heard by all.  People are quick to just follow the label.  Get corporate $ out of the elections.  If primaries are seen as a necessary, but party affiliation is not, maybe randomly choose the order of the states and then the top 5 get to move on to the Nov. general election.  As much as I hate Gov’t handling of things, have the elections funded by the Gov’t and each media source has to provide a bit of free advertising to each candidate.  Naturally, there is a maximum amount any candidate can spend.  In order to run, you have to gather a certain # of signatures.  The number has to be sensible.  A series of debates would also be publicly televised.  As the primaries progress, you have to attain some reasonable level of support to continue.  Anyway, just some thoughts of the top of my head. Of course, probably no matter what we do, it will still be a circus.

                                I don’t agree that people who are supporting Trump are morons.  People are tired of career politicians only looking out for themselves and/or their corporate buddies.  Presidents are constrained by the other two branches of Gov’t and have to find ways to work with them instead of against them or they won’t be a successful President.

                                cd :O)
                                Click to expand...


                                Random primaries dont make any better sense than the traditional does now. If you want primaries to not only pick the best nominee and give them the best national chances, you'd want to pick a few places that most closely resemble the overall US demographic. It would actually be very simple to do, and even adjustable. Here is a site that has done just that: https://wallethub.com/edu/electorate-representation-index/18190/

                                Mind you, I personally did not say that Trump followers were morons, that was a indirect quote from somewhere else. The tie that binds Trump followers together is a streak of authoritarianism, which he has tapped into quite superbly. This is the major predictor of likelihood to vote for him and explains the cross demo/economic nature of his results. Excellent piece on this on Vox.

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