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Odds of 0% forbearance extension? Should I refinance before March?

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Andrew StudentLoanAdvice View Post
    It is finally official. No payments until Sept 1.

    Do you think payments will ever actually resume at this point?

    Personally I don't think payments will ever resume for most people. Maybe some day I could see them saying payments resume if you have above a certain income threshold. But that's probably it.


    Now with this extension, there is ZERO chance that payments restart before November 2022. I think there's also a high likelihood they'll forgive something like $10k off the student loans.

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    • #77
      I think people also overestimate how many people have student loans. From what I can find, it's about 13% of the American population has student loans. Obviously those 18 and below aren't likely to have student loans but the majority of voting-age adults don't have student loans. From a voter perspective, eliminating all student loans is probably not feasible for those who want to stay in office.

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      • #78
        Great news! As we predicted earlier in the thread. No student loan repayments until Aug of 2022, where it will again be extended right before midterms to keep the issue fresh in the ideas of the voters.

        I'm predicting again repayments start Jan 31 of 2023 and there will either be a program associated with it to forgive $10k of student loans or have 0% interest if you are making on time payments to soften the blow of repayments starting.

        I would hold off on refi for the remainder of 2022.

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        • #79
          I owed 180k in student loans after med school which became 220k by the time I finished training, due to the +6% interest rate I had and the fact that I had a family to raise on resident salary and couldn’t pay much. I think having the interest accumulate while we are still in training was ridiculous.

          That being said I have no issues with paying it off; I don’t need or expect student loan forgiveness. But it would certainly be nice if they can lower the rates. Incentivize folks like say lock a 1% interest rate if you are willing to start a payment plan now.

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          • #80
            Originally posted by JBME View Post

            honestly by then I can see another excuse/reason not to restart repayments that we can't predict to give another reason to not restart. Agree they won't restart in August. Maybe December 2022. After elections for sure
            Wait, I thought this was because of the "emergency stimulus" to help all the poor people? Executive action is replacing a dysfunctional Congress.
            Congrats to all the physicians that held off refi for PSLF.



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            • #81
              Originally posted by Turf Doc View Post

              Who would have thought that high-earning professionals with monster student loans would have actually been the largest beneficiaries of COVID-era stimulus?
              We weren't. Not by a longshot.

              https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...n-ppp-n1279664

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              • #82
                Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post
                I think people also overestimate how many people have student loans. From what I can find, it's about 13% of the American population has student loans. Obviously those 18 and below aren't likely to have student loans but the majority of voting-age adults don't have student loans. From a voter perspective, eliminating all student loans is probably not feasible for those who want to stay in office.
                According to the Fed in 2020, it is ~30% of Adults. Seniors over the age of 65 are ~26% of Adults. So it's far from a majority, but it is also not insignificant.

                https://www.federalreserve.gov/publi...dent-loans.htm

                https://www.investopedia.com/student...utlook-4772007

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by TheDangerZone View Post

                  According to the Fed in 2020, it is ~30% of Adults. Seniors over the age of 65 are ~26% of Adults. So it's far from a majority, but it is also not insignificant.

                  https://www.federalreserve.gov/publi...dent-loans.htm

                  https://www.investopedia.com/student...utlook-4772007
                  The number I quoted was all Americans which has the limitations I mentioned. So, 70% of adults don't have student loans. A 70/30 split is huge when it comes to voters. I would bet that, on average, the gap is even wider among those who actually vote.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                    The number I quoted was all Americans which has the limitations I mentioned. So, 70% of adults don't have student loans. A 70/30 split is huge when it comes to voters. I would bet that, on average, the gap is even wider among those who actually vote.
                    Loan forgiveness is doing nothing to fix any problems. If we want a payback for those that were abused by the healthcare system so be it. If we want to target those that lost income to government lock downs and have student loans so be it. The problem with the physicians is not the loans, it was the hospitals/healthcare systems. The broad brush giveaways miss the mark. Understandable at the start. Not after the vaccines became available. This is an official political vote buying scheme.

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                    • #85
                      Yes. Imagine they try to resume in September 2022 (election, inflation at 9%, gas at $5-6.)
                      They need to forgive Grad PLUS balances for anyone who is eligible for medicare or medicaid.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by drmka26 View Post

                        Have you worked 12+ hours in the COVID unit for weeks on end? Student loans payment pause extension is a minor consolation for all those grueling weeks of physical and emotional abuse of doctors (and nurses and aids etc etc).
                        Fortunately I haven't, and I'm not commenting on whether its good policy or not, its just interesting because other than those who are the most progressive in congress, even those who talk about student loan relief usually complain that it would help higher earners (as it has so far). But with this pause its been like a several thousand a month check for the last few years, obviously way more than those measly stimulus checks

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                        • #87
                          Agree with above comments. It will be almost certainly be extended past November at this point. Putting them back into repayment in August before midterms would be political suicide for democrats. They are already facing the headwind of inflation and high gas prices which although not entirely their fault, always tends to go against the party in majority power. I see this forbearance being extended to the end of November or January 2023 with that announcement coming in early July. It will become a hot debate and campaign topic in the months leading up to the elections.

                          Another guess is that they may forgive any interest accumulated on loans that is currently sitting in limbo. Hard to say if there will be any income restrictions, but certainly possible.

                          I think they should keep it at 0% indefinitely for those that make income based repayments on time. Those that do not make income based repayments could perhaps lets say face a higher interest rate. If you make a small salary then you pay a token income based repayment. If you make a lot, then you will certainly end up paying it off in full in a relatively short time. Those that struggle to repay due to low income should have it forgiven in full after 20 years assuming they make all the income based repayments. I think that is fair to everyone involved although I doubt they will do this. Blanket forgiveness is a slippery slope that doesn’t take into account all those that have responsibly paid off their loans and also doesn’t take into account future student loan borrowers. Setting precedent for blanket forgiveness will just encourage colleges to hike tuition even further while not addressing rising costs of higher education that are spiraling out of control. I think students should be responsible for every cent of principal. I don’t believe the government should make profit off of student loans however.

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                          • #88
                            I bet you that delay is the only thing Biden can do legally.

                            If he tries to forgive 10K, supreme court will definitely rule against him since Congress has the power of the purse.

                            In reality, the more he holds off, the more people are eligible for PSLF and forgiveness, essentially forgiving 10K.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by udrag14 View Post
                              I bet you that delay is the only thing Biden can do legally.

                              If he tries to forgive 10K, supreme court will definitely rule against him since Congress has the power of the purse.

                              In reality, the more he holds off, the more people are eligible for PSLF and forgiveness, essentially forgiving 10K.
                              More than 10k has already been given to a large group of borrowers. Nonexistent taxpayer funds spent by the Executive Branch to “buy votes”.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by udrag14 View Post
                                I bet you that delay is the only thing Biden can do legally.

                                If he tries to forgive 10K, supreme court will definitely rule against him since Congress has the power of the purse.

                                In reality, the more he holds off, the more people are eligible for PSLF and forgiveness, essentially forgiving 10K.
                                In our circles PSLF is a factor but I imagine the majority of people are not able to take advantage of the program.

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