Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Medical Education Bubble Market?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Medical Education Bubble Market?

    Anyone else seen this article from NEJM 2013, Are We in a Medical Education Bubble Market?  They look at debt:income ratios across several medical specialties as well as several professions.

    Seems like the DVMs and ODs are leading the pack.  MBAs are the only ones going in the right direction.

    We're definitely not to a bubble market yet, but could get there if education costs don't get reined in and reimbursements decline.

    http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1310778#t=article

     

  • #2
    It sure seems like it until you see the relative value of education and income graphs and then it makes more sense. That gap has only increased with time and dramatically so. Education is actually more valuable in the past. I dont give them a pass though. Yes, its too spendy, but yes its still not only worth it but very profitable unless you continually make terrible decisions. I made almost all the wrong ones and will still end up fine in short order.

    I grew up poor and didnt have any family to help with money or educate me, went to private med school in HCOL area (and had good times...), bought house 2006 (who says you cant time the tops), got divorced, got remarried, did long specialty and a fellowship, and took out lots of private loans to interview, etc...probably took way more loans than needed. Stayed in a family sized house when I was single (this one kills me).

    I do think that these hyperinflation categories will start decreasing their massive outsized gains relative to everything else, nothing is immune to economic gravity, what we need is likely more schools in general. Not sure thats a great idea for medical/dental schools as I like the supply/demand ratio for entirely selfish reasons.

    Comment


    • #3
      I do not consider it to be a bubble, but the cost-value proposition is as unfavorable as it has ever been, and I do not see either variable trending in a positive direction.

      Comment


      • #4




        Anyone else seen this article from NEJM 2013, Are We in a Medical Education Bubble Market?  They look at debt:income ratios across several medical specialties as well as several professions.

        Seems like the DVMs and ODs are leading the pack.  MBAs are the only ones going in the right direction.

        We’re definitely not to a bubble market yet, but could get there if education costs don’t get reined in and reimbursements decline.

        http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1310778#t=article

         
        Click to expand...






        Anyone else seen this article from NEJM 2013, Are We in a Medical Education Bubble Market?  They look at debt:income ratios across several medical specialties as well as several professions.

        Seems like the DVMs and ODs are leading the pack.  MBAs are the only ones going in the right direction.

        We’re definitely not to a bubble market yet, but could get there if education costs don’t get reined in and reimbursements decline.

        http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1310778#t=article

         
        Click to expand...


        Great topic. We are not currently in a medical education bubble, because of the general shortage of physicians and American-educated medical students. Every American medical student gets a residency, and every resident (in most specialties) gets a job.

        See law school for an example of an education bubble that popped.

        Comment


        • #5
          Agree, if anything its artificially depressed supply which explains the high prices (and high salaries).

          Comment


          • #6
            Unfortunately not every MD from the US gets into residency...not sure why they can't get in and it raises some red flags, but this is the second such article I have read about a MD not getting into residency despite graduating med school and passing their boards.

             

            https://www.statnews.com/2016/11/28/residency-failed-to-match/comment-page-2/

             

            -EJ

            Comment


            • #7
              Sorry, this is the post I meant to share. The last one had a Caribbean med graduate which qualifies as a FMG.

               

              http://cni.pmgnews.com/pt/9-news/314852-193097-md-but-not-a-doctor

              Comment


              • #8




                Sorry, this is the post I meant to share. The last one had a Caribbean med graduate which qualifies as a FMG.

                 

                http://cni.pmgnews.com/pt/9-news/314852-193097-md-but-not-a-doctor
                Click to expand...


                I agree that not every US MD or DO is getting a residency. It looks like we're almost at the point where the number of U.S. Allopathic and Osteopathic 4th year medical students equals the number of residency slots. But this is mostly a function of Congress not wanting to fund additional residency spots.  But we're a few years away from a bubble situation where 25% or 50% of graduates from some U.S. medical schools do not get a job (law schools).

                Comment


                • #9
                  I think this is a tremendous problem!  I have no clue about the answer.  I feel sorry for all these posters who have tremendous debt.  There is only a limited number of orthopedist slots.  I also caution that what speciality is paying highly today may not be in the future.  I have seen big reductions in my career.  I remember when everybody wanted to be an ophthalmologist because cataract surgery paid so well!

                  Comment


                  • #10


                    Sorry, this is the post I meant to share. The last one had a Caribbean med graduate which qualifies as a FMG.
                    Click to expand...


                    Carribean medical graduates are in the in between area - not fully US graduates and not FMG either. They used to be called fifth pathway.

                    I have experience with two of them. A patient's son went to Grenada med school, and he did couple of attachments with me in my specialty. He could not match in his first attempt and had to work in NY and then got a Med/Peds residency in PA. But things have gone smoothly after that and he now is a partner in a Norther California FP group making very good money. A similar story of a friend's son who could not match at all anywhere in the 1st year and finally got a job in Dakota in his second year of search. Again FP. I heard that Caribbean schools are not recognized any more.

                    Some program directors actually preferred highly trained FMG to the 5th pathway candidates. Many years ago, my program director in an NY inner city hospital took many FMG out of match and they had MD and MRCP from India and England. He kept only a few slots for match and thus was the only inner city hospital in NY to be fully matched. And his highly trained FMG scored in the 97-99th percentile in the IM boards and the program had a 100 % pass rate, matching some of the top academic centers in the nation.

                    Thus his program continued to be accredited, and the Health and Hospital systems of NY continued to fund his hospital. He told me that if he did the right thing and put all his seats for match then it would never be filled and those accepting it will fail the boards and hence the program will lose accreditation and funding. He had to do what he had to do. He certainly knew how to game the system.

                    Comment


                    • #11




                      I think this is a tremendous problem!  I have no clue about the answer.  I feel sorry for all these posters who have tremendous debt.  There is only a limited number of orthopedist slots.  I also caution that what speciality is paying highly today may not be in the future.  I have seen big reductions in my career.  I remember when everybody wanted to be an ophthalmologist because cataract surgery paid so well!
                      Click to expand...


                      hatton1: I remember that ophthalmologists were reputed to be among the highest paid specialists in the late 80s, and that cataract surgery paid $2000 per. Where do ophthalmologists fall on the relative income scale now?
                      Erstwhile Dance Theatre of Dayton performer cum bellhop. Carried (many) bags for a lovely and gracious 59 yo Cyd Charisse. (RIP) Hosted epic company parties after Friday night rehearsals.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Google says median income as of 12/2016 for ophthalmology is $273088.   Range $229574-312382.  I remember the $2000 per days too.

                        Comment


                        • #13




                          Sorry, this is the post I meant to share. The last one had a Caribbean med graduate which qualifies as a FMG.

                           

                          http://cni.pmgnews.com/pt/9-news/314852-193097-md-but-not-a-doctor
                          Click to expand...


                          I think the caribbean MD was a better example.  

                          The Bubenik MD is a good example of the testing, interviewing, licensing processes doing their job.  There's nothing unfortunate about it (except the situation this woman has put herself in).  The more you read about her the more it becomes clear that she's nuts and completely out of touch.  Whether or not Oregon pushed her through undeservedly is another story.

                          So it's not "every" but more like 99.9%.  I'm OK with that.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Another profession to add to that list that's struggling almost as much as veterinarians is dentistry. Avg debt for class of 2017 I think will end up being $280,000 and avg income starting is about $120,000. Higher cost private schools the numbers are more like $400,000 to $500,000 in debt and same starting salary. The only way out without the government loan programs is buying a practice in the middle of nowhere.

                            One real issue why the costs continue to rise is that med students are completely protected from the cost of the education by PSLF and REPAYE/PAYE. If those programs ceased to exist, which they very well could for folks starting school in the next year or two, I think you'd see a ton of press on 'burdened doctors struggling to pay their loans' and 'Is Medical School Even Worth it Anymore?' on the front page of a lot of publications.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              My friend recently graduated from USC Dental (120-130k per year tuition). First day of class they breezed through PSLF, REPAYE and basically said "don't worry about it!" then started the extortion. So not worth it, lots of regrets now but trapped by the debt. A very large number of their class unsurprisingly joined the military. We actually went out to visit a couple in Japan having a great time for 4 years. Actually a pretty good setup, but I agree that dentists have some very limited options these days and there are far better ways to get your 130-150k salary these days.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X