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[Dont_know_mind]

I don't know. I don't have any crytpo and only have a superficial knowledge of it as I'm not invested.
If I did have any stablecoins, I would probably...

[Dont_know_mind]

If you duration match your bond ladder, there is only interest rate risk.
if you duration match with TIPS, it takes away the interest rate risk....

[Dont_know_mind]

Yellen commented on it last week. The treasury seems to have been considering regulating crypto for years, but never gets around to it.
I guess...

[Dont_know_mind]

I'm curious X-ray,
What has been your % return on crypto investments to date and do you still have much left? Are you still in HFEA ?
...

[Dont_know_mind]

I'm reading Peter Zeihan's book 'Disunited nations' atm. It's an interesting take on the geopolitics.
I think you and a few others actually actually...

[Dont_know_mind]

Moving along from general philosophical discussions, assuming the crypto space does implode or continue to underperform at the current rate, what does...

[Dont_know_mind]

I still think the US equity market is inflated.
20 years of outperformance and a decade of overvaluation may not have been wrung out in a year....

[Dont_know_mind]

I am waiting for the class actions to start and for the whole crypto space to get regulated.

Happily a few crypto holders were also holders...

[Dont_know_mind]

Looks like a zero coupon treasury bill.

Regular bonds, which are also called coupon bonds, pay interest over the life of the bond and also...

[Dont_know_mind]

That is an excellent article and a great point that under certain situations, TIPS maybe better than ibonds, depending on whether TIPS yields are positive....

[Dont_know_mind]

If you intend to hold to maturity then there is not much difference in my mind between a 1-5 year CD (if FDIC insured) or 1-5 year treasury. Both will...

[Dont_know_mind]

There could well be a recession in some parts of Europe and energy dependent Asian countries.

I tend to think the current period is a bit...

[Dont_know_mind]

Thanks for your thoughts. That's pretty balanced and great insight and clear thinking on the politics. I guess everyone has things they get spooked about...

[Dont_know_mind]

Thinking about it more, it's very possible the Europeans hash up a basic economic fiscal stimulus plan and end up in recession.
Resources are still...

[Dont_know_mind]

I meant the period between recessions was 10 years (recession 2020, and one prior to that was 2009). So if it is another 10 years again (which probably...

[Dont_know_mind]

The US should get some benefit from military equipment sales to Europe. But probably won’t be enough without further increase in US defence spending...

[Dont_know_mind]

Russian oil is interesting. They can’t shut it off readily at the wellhead without impairing reserves and they have limited storage capacity. They...

[Dont_know_mind]

Basically, my entire stock portfolio has been 2X levered commodity tilted indexes since April 2020, so am thinking of when to start reducing leverage....

[Dont_know_mind]

That’s the classic market timing dilemma:
involves being short relative to a neutral position (eg owning a house to live in for a lot of people),...

[Dont_know_mind]

I hope there’s a recession soon. My wife wants to upgrade our house. If the next recession is 10 years again (2010-2020), that would be painful....

[Dont_know_mind]

Did you mean war in Europe or more generally conflict between democratic states and totalitarian ones ?

Do you think Xi is similar to Putin?...

[Dont_know_mind]

The fiscal impulse is waning, but I’m not sure it has in Europe. Maybe it still got another burst in the US, crazy as that would be (although unlikely)....

[Dont_know_mind]

yes, the war is potentially a game changer.

I tend to think the Ukraine war also changes the Feds potential reaction function.
With...

[Dont_know_mind]

WB, you're never offensive.
I tend to think that the different POV's are a gift as far as helping us to be better investors.
We are not our...

[Dont_know_mind]

Great point Larry.
I have no idea. Everyone thinks that inflation will settle down, including me.
But there could be some unforeseen event....

[Dont_know_mind]

It depends on whether you are a saver. if you are, likely you will make the 20% into retirement and sacrifice lifestyle if you have to.
It could...

[Dont_know_mind]

The Ukraine war was a black swan event for inflation.
The outlook for inflation is unknowable, it depends in my mind on whether the Ukraine war...

[Dont_know_mind]

It's a very difficult situation. I would not buy a house as a real estate investor in the current market. It may well decline as WB mentions.
However,...

[Dont_know_mind]

I think the pendulum often swings form 1 extreme to another.
I would guess confidence in the 60:40, US only portfolio reached a peak last year....

[Dont_know_mind]

I understand this perspective I think.
It really depends on whether there is wage inflation. If there is not there will be a recession.
...

[Dont_know_mind]

I was just thinking to invert the problem.
Imagine significant wage inflation then imagine how does that start at the beginning.

It...

[Dont_know_mind]

The effect of inflation depends on the components.

I disagree with the heuristic that inflation is bad for low income earners and middle...

[Dont_know_mind]

The meme- low inflation is good for US investors, high inflation is good for US investors too.

Wishful thinking I reckon.

Say...

[Dont_know_mind]

Maybe it was from you Zaphod.
I think it was maybe from a newsletter I read from a while ago where someone mentioned probability cones.
Maybe...

[Dont_know_mind]

I was looking at the 1915-1924 period today.

Yields on commercial paper (proxy for high grade bonds, I don't think there was a FFR then)...

[Dont_know_mind]

I was just thinking today that the current period might be most simillar to the 1914-1920 period.
Except COVID came before the current war. In 1919...

[Dont_know_mind]

The main area economic sanctions were a success in the past was with the former USSR and China. It took decades, but arguably did result in change....

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess it would be in the German's interests to be working on this. They probably are. By the time they get to a viable alternative, the Russians may...

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess it becomes a political question.
If NATO does go down the path of economic warfare, it would be suboptimal to allow other countries to derail...

[Dont_know_mind]

China may benefit from cheaper oil/gas from Russia for a period. I guess there might be a lot of pressure on them if the Europeans ban Russian oil/gas,...

[Dont_know_mind]

I think it is likely the Germans and Europeans will get around to banning Russia gas and oil. I read somewhere the modelled effect on the German economy...

[Dont_know_mind]

It all depends on your inflation expectations.
What do you expect inflation will average in the next 5 years (p.a) ?
Do you think that increases...

[Dont_know_mind]

Sorry to hear about your loss Billy.
I think you are right that time is worth more than money.
I struggle with balance and "enough"....

[Dont_know_mind]

That skit is great and the comments too:
John Cleese wrote this scene because he hated the saying "you never truly lose until you give up"....

[Dont_know_mind]

Yeah, I probably worry about this stuff more than I need to.
I used to do some medicolegal, but I don't anymore.

I definitely look...

[Dont_know_mind]

That's a difficult situation.
I was short a house or half one in 2011-2015. It was very painful.
I had this delusional idea that there was...

[Dont_know_mind]

Can you renovate or add rooms to your current house?

It sounds like you are short 1/2 or 1/3 a house, but not as much as someone who doesn't...

[Dont_know_mind]

I wonder how much of this is recency bias.
We are all short appreciating assets when young, including real estate (a house to live in), stocks (for...

[Dont_know_mind]

Great points WB. It probably boils down to whether one can hold the investment as a resident for 10+ years and at what cost psychologically, depending...

[Dont_know_mind]

Congrats on reaching coastfire!...

[Dont_know_mind]

The main issue I see (for you) is that if she keeps the house it may be a premarital asset (in divorce).

If it was me, knowing what I know...

[Dont_know_mind]

I spoke to a woman in 2000 who sold her house for 600k as she was convinced by this sort of calculator. I saw her in 2010 and she was still waiting for...

[Dont_know_mind]

Some people need a lot of cash I guess. At least you see it as a potential problem. It’s a serious problem.

Some people can benefit from...

[Dont_know_mind]

I've been thinking over the last week about the reducing spread between 2-10's. Some people interpret this as some sort of YC inversion. I think the bond...

[Dont_know_mind]

The monetary policy naval gazing is mainly to while away the time.
Fiscal policy packs the biggest punch and can solve most economic problems in...

[Dont_know_mind]

I've read the material on factors and maybe don't put enough weight on it.
I guess I tend to not like things that are very popular as it tends to...

[Dont_know_mind]

I tend to think value mean reverts in all forms over time, but I don’t tend to invest on this basis except at extremes. I tend to think that a dollar...

[Dont_know_mind]

That whoosh you hear isn’t the Nike symbol, but the money coming out of bonds and cash.

I think it is a level 9/10 difficulty operation...

[Dont_know_mind]

Something I read on a Bogleheads forum that dovetails with what you are saying about the Fed possibly being behind the curve:

"I would...

[Dont_know_mind]

That's a great take. Sometimes the bond market gets it right and sometimes they don't. I think Fed was brilliant not to do yield curve control. They are...

[Dont_know_mind]

Yes, bonds just seem expensive here compared to stocks. So I think there is a developing move to bail out of bonds. I think there is still a bit more...

[Dont_know_mind]

It’s not been the best environment to be long bonds and long equity that’s heavy tech....

[Dont_know_mind]

I was thinking of a different case of a surgeon being shot after an expert opinion about a work back injury case.

I think the expert testimony...

[Dont_know_mind]

The sanctions are meant to facilitate regime change, but Russia actually has a large current account surplus. I don’t know how it will turn out....

[Dont_know_mind]

It’s an ongoing debate about whether indexing is worse than active in EM. Surprisingly, what I’ve read indicates indexing works as well in EM as DM....

[Dont_know_mind]

Good bogleheads thread on the theme
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/vie...22149&start=50
I wrote a post there last year

[Dont_know_mind]

The patient can make a medical board complaint if you are registered as a medical practitioner and you maybe required to reply, even if the complaint...

[Dont_know_mind]

The non-recourse loan troubles me. I tend to think these will get pulled first by lenders when conditions tighten or the interest rate margin to non-recourse...

[Dont_know_mind]

This is something I’ve struggled with and it’s resulted in me being underweighted residential RE. In my area the nominal rate of capital appreciation...

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess if you had bought a 3M house with 600k equity in 2009 in most places in the US, you’d be doing about the same as the investor who invested that...

[Dont_know_mind]

I think the buy vs rent calculators are stupid if you do not calculate the likely capital appreciation of the real estate.

Just like the...

[Dont_know_mind]

For heavy/larger vehicles, EV's/batteries for these are pie in the sky stuff IMO. I think hydrogen is the best option there, but it isn't very popular...

[Dont_know_mind]

The Chandler brothers (*) fought this in the 90’s and gave up.

One day Russia will be a frontier market again and hopefully it will be...

[Dont_know_mind]

It’s an impressive bounce. If I had cash lying around, I probably would have bought some. Unfortunately, I haven’t had excess cash lying about since...

[Dont_know_mind]

I’m still pondering it myself and tend to think I will stick with the LETF’s I have.

For some reason I never could quite could pull the...

[Dont_know_mind]

I would say that everyone tends to be overconfident about what they know. Someone probably knows something somewhere though. But luck also plays a major...

[Dont_know_mind]

I've been thinking about this lately. I had been watching a uranium junior last year, but it went 10X before I could pull the trigger.

Currently...

[Dont_know_mind]

The other thing I remember about 2014 was that the Fed could have crushed the Chinese by raising US interest rates when the Yuan crisis occurred. They...

[Dont_know_mind]

The narrative is that China could become like Russia. That's catching fire.
But who knows what could happen.

At some point Chinese...

[Dont_know_mind]

1. I thought about buying some in 2017, when I first heard Shiller and Buffett say it was a bubble. I didn’t as I didn’t think it was worth the effort,...

[Dont_know_mind]

Although there are transactional costs, it can work out better to buy something more affordable earlier.
The first house I bought was 300k, then...

[Dont_know_mind]

Yes, there's always worries.
When I look back at my mistakes, I would have done better if I had worried less. And taken more risk. I think I was...

[Dont_know_mind]

What's your friend's personal investing track record, it might be a lot worse than you think.
I guess in hedge fund land, you get a fee for selling...

[Dont_know_mind]

You'd think so, but the hedgers can get margin called too, and that is a problem if they can't stump the margin call. The exchange can exempt margin requirements...

[Dont_know_mind]

Wow, that is a monster short squeeze on nickel. Someone must have got wrecked. Hopefully not a major producer getting blown to smithereens on their hedging...

[Dont_know_mind]

Once or twice I thought it might be a good idea to buy a few gold coins. But there would be a 99% chance I'd forget where I stored them so I never bothered....

[Dont_know_mind]

It's hard not to have some wishful thinking, like somehow it could have been avoided. But I guess if that was in his heart from the start and that was...

[Dont_know_mind]

I guess that's why people jump from equities to bonds or cash.
I tend to think in an inflationary environment, that could be like the Russian investor...

[Dont_know_mind]

I don't think they will raise interest rates much due to commodity inflation. I think they are more likely to sacrifice bondholders instead. If you are...

[Dont_know_mind]

As shocking as it seems, I think the most probable outcome is that the West gives him Ukraine and weakens the sanctions over time.
Anyway, at least...

[Dont_know_mind]

To me that was probing NATO about their line, which they didn't draw.
In a game theory sense, it's the "crazy negotiator" strategy. You...

[Dont_know_mind]

...
Another approach better suited to the temperament of the West’s leaders and the expectations of our populaces is resolute deterrence. Major...

[Dont_know_mind]

We can do something, that is to ask our politicians to articulate a clear position. It costs nothing and it may avert further escalation. It is too late...

[Dont_know_mind]

Good point. Main question for me will be when a recession might occur and when to lighten up on the resource and risk exposure. The current bias of most...

[Dont_know_mind]

This is good for Brazillian and Australian indexes.
My antiquated country index tilting strategy is a bit like Putin's use of Windows XP.
...

[Dont_know_mind]

Probably it's a wash in the long term. Maybe SP500 would be better over a 30 year period.
For me it is what risk asset can I hold in the long term....

[Dont_know_mind]

I tend to think there's further to run on commodities. It's still unloved. China leading indicators for lending are starting to bottom (my interpretation),...

[Dont_know_mind]

Very amusing, unless you're Maldovian.
Apparently Putin still uses Windows XP.
Speaking of which, I am wondering wtf happened to current version...

[Dont_know_mind]

I’m 100% international with a major resources tilt. My portfolio is about 5% below post covid high. I was hoping to rebalance at lower levels but hasn’t...

[Dont_know_mind]

They'd all survive, but the Europeans and Germans would be the most screwed.
I think that's where my idea of having the troops in Ukraine conversation...