Update

[BCBiker]

volatility is not equal to risk… to think that is quite a silly assertion.

An asset that has a clear path to go from $30B market cap to...

[BCBiker]

As someone who has made 200,000% returns I may not understand it but I’ve made transactions decisions that suggest I know a little something about it....

[BCBiker]

Cannot touch GME. It makes so little sense. I wanted to buy bear put spreads on first one when was over $400 but did not. Would have only made maybe $10K...

[BCBiker]

this is why in certain circumstances selling puts and selling covered calls makes sense. Obviously I have been very lucky in my strategy so far. I bought...

[BCBiker]

No etf that does it for you and sends you dividend.

ticker qyld is largest one....

[BCBiker]

Actually you can buy an ETFs that do nothing other than buy shares with your money and pays a 9-12% dividend in monthly chunks.

It is a...

[BCBiker]

If anyone is confused on this point I suggest reading the very entertaining books by Nassim Taleb. I personally like Antifragile but the most digestible...

[BCBiker]

There are situations where they have very technical people working to “minimize” risk in large institutions who blow up. Long Term Capital Management...

[BCBiker]

The most common strategy that is well known is to buy convertible bonds and sell calls to remove the equity risk from the bond. But yes Renaissance and...

[BCBiker]

you have to have a large long position that you don’t intend to sell.

the two negative sides of selling covered calls are 1) that you may...

[BCBiker]

This is good thread to introduce concepts. I think the more you do this the more clever you become.

The key is to never be on the wrong...

[BCBiker]

Thanks. Want to make everyone knows I’m not insane.

I missed a similar opportunity before Labor Day to sell $500K in covers. I had order...

[BCBiker]

yes buying to open on TSLA whether put or call is not going to be a good return and easy to lose it all.

Right now I feel like I am robbing...

[BCBiker]

Yes. I just bumped around with biotech stocks I knew well. I then made $20-30K on Amd running from $14 to $40. When I started Tesla was too expensive...

[BCBiker]

Not going to buy it. They are valued as if they are Tesla which is bad if you are not Tesla. I’m a one trick pony do don’t go chasing waterfalls....

[BCBiker]

I think last time you told me that I was not as far of a pig as you. Now I presume I have caught up....

[BCBiker]

I would like nothing better than for the world to think it was the apocalypse. March 2020 took me from previous peak of $1.2M to $300K. And I bought assets...

[BCBiker]

Well the comparison is inevitable. Tesla is a real company with a much larger addressable market and a track record. I’m not sure which company you...

[BCBiker]

I was in high school and not aware. I get the sentiment. I fully anticipate a pullback on TSLA and market in general but there are key differences. This...

[BCBiker]

P/E is a poor metric when a company has just hit profitability and is doubling capacity every 12-18 months.

The operation efficiency from...

[BCBiker]

If I didn’t have this huge position I would be buying TSLA whenever I can. I still have an auto investment in TSLA that is quite minimal relative to...

[BCBiker]

some things 1000X plus over index....

[BCBiker]

Ya. Basics are 50% to taxes 50% to margin until margin gone.

I don’t really care about short term pull backs. Only care about share count....

[BCBiker]

the options premium on $200 calls even ones expiring next Jan 2023 is negligible. They will all be ltcg in March. Even in that situation I am paying a...

[BCBiker]

This is why 2nd $1M is easier than the first. My most recent came in the last 48 hours......

[BCBiker]

Love this comment. I put this scenario at very low probability but sure. People do not understand TSLA which is why it was such a good small bet in first...

[BCBiker]

I don’t need this money. A big drop makes basically no difference to me. $7M versus $3M is not a change to me. I have $1M out of it already on the...

[BCBiker]

https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/.../248861-update

I apologize for my short peacock post. I guess with this new forum it is impossible...

[BCBiker]

7.5

[BCBiker]

As a Tesla investor, thank you for your contribution. We are also buying a ModelX but have a NW of $4M. It is better to live like a resident. This won't...

[BCBiker]

possibly. Is intense though. Requires very high resistance and you have to be in the top 2% of participants....

[BCBiker]

I think the Rich >> Fat thing is true... I think that a lot my former self-control was being a penny pincher. Now. No excuse to not have dessert...

[BCBiker]

All still way in money and up several M. Dips are expected. This was more brisk than desired but no expiration any time soon and lots of good news ahead...

[BCBiker]

Definitely good entry point. It could happen although if it does drop like that sentiment will be low again and then you might be more risk averse on...

[BCBiker]

you just don’t know what you are talking about....

[BCBiker]

I had done non government loans that I refinanced 2% pre-pandemic on variable rate. Now they are at 0.74%. When this government 0% rate expires will see...

[BCBiker]

... it just feels like bragging. You know what goes here. Dear flp, I’m glad I didn’t sell. I might be a fatter pig than you. Lol.

[BCBiker]

Didn’t read all thread but wanted to comment that we just bought a house in hot market. We have liquid assets to pay for it a couple times over but...

[BCBiker]

part of it too is that anything short term I feel I need to watch like a hawk. The long dated calls are not that consequential throughout the day. But...

[BCBiker]

ya. Testing my tolerance and understanding good way to do this. I think the upside is going to be fairly significant up until end of September. I agree...

[BCBiker]

No spreads. Thought about it. Been doing spreads with non-Tesla options picked up in March which have annoyingly went itm.

Maybe post split...

[BCBiker]

4M

[BCBiker]

That wasn't in medicine. lol!...

[BCBiker]

I am not against means testing PSLF. However, judging people's morals based on following a program that benefits them is akin to looking down on someone...

[BCBiker]

I basically agree. I actually think PSLF should be means tested but because it is not does not mean that those who benefit should waive their right to...

[BCBiker]

Exactly. It is only a give away if it is to someone other than me. If my moral compass says that I only need $X and thus I pay every bit more I earn...

[BCBiker]

I agree. There was so much mis-information. People with actual reputations were saying things that were clearly not true. There were people on here calling...

[BCBiker]

Stop loss is fundamentally the dumbest thing for anyone with a time horizon greater than 20 mins. Why would you program in to sell at a loss?...

[BCBiker]

For the boomers out there, my responses are:
1) ? THIS ?
2) lols
3) ?

edits: this forum killed my moji mojo. Alas. I promise...

[BCBiker]

I agree. Lining up for the military is a decision, just like the decision that people make to go to college. The incentive structure is made by policy...

[BCBiker]

I’m curious what the cost of tuition was for you.

The cost of education is problematic and in some cases not even feasible without these...

[BCBiker]

I consider this a rather absurd subsidy for me this year. I will post a low 7 fig 2020 income and government is covering interest on my loans for 9 months...

[BCBiker]

You can get very low variable rate from earnest but do 5 years max. My current rate is 0.73%. I actually didn’t realize how low it was. I need to borrow...

[BCBiker]

Nice time to buy last May. I’m just counting options gains not shares that we bought in Roths bought in low $200s in 2014. Those were fairly minor positions...

[BCBiker]

3.5M

[BCBiker]

Yup. If you took median nw of all BMW drivers in US would probably be significantly less than that of Toyota drivers. Median income might be higher for...

[BCBiker]

I would not really classify M3 like BMW. Total cost of ownership is more similar to Honda, especially if commute is longer. I bike everywhere so not really...

[BCBiker]

Buy a model 3. Buying ice car in 2020 just doesn’t make sense. I’m trolling a bit here but fairly serious.

[BCBiker]

Call every company on the list that serves your state: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/we...ortgage-loans/

I'm not a WCI...

[BCBiker]

I think you can get better that 2.875% on 15 year note. You don’t seem super adventurous but I just got 2.375% on a 7 year ARM , 30 year amortization...

[BCBiker]

Ya. Hold to 1 year for current contracts. There are 8 of them I might sell earlier because they expire 2 days after 1st anniversary. Those are approaching...

[BCBiker]

3M

[BCBiker]

Elon addressed this in Twitter months ago. The home link is a licensed product and most people don’t use it so didn’t make sense to continue....

[BCBiker]

One theory on that $500K bet is that a large short position hedged their capitulation trade, knowing it would run up the stock.

As someone...

[BCBiker]

In the $400k ish range for 2020 just realized gains so far. One motivation for holdOmg most of positions is that I go from top marginal tax rate to long...

[BCBiker]

FSD is an exponential technology. Like how search was quite bad in Alta vista / yahoo days and now google practically knows what we are going ask better...

[BCBiker]

They are currently valued more than all car companies combined but as they ride down cost curves of batteries to huge gross margins and unlock more software...

[BCBiker]

I’ve taken a couple years salary off but still rising strong with current exposure....

[BCBiker]

2.5M

[BCBiker]

Yep. Signed up for warning of stock. Best $69.420 ever spent...

[BCBiker]

I was going to buy some short shorts yesterday but they sold out of my wife’s size before I found out. ?...

[BCBiker]

Crossed 2M

[BCBiker]

my volatility tolerance is 100% built on holding a nominal amount of tsla shares during residency and paying vague attention to it and knowing I would...

[BCBiker]

Ya. There are not many people to turn to for advice in this situation. I must say In my options trading I always have more confidence in buying than I...

[BCBiker]

Some good points. My largest lack of discipline was in March when I had 1.5 years salary in cash and saw the crashing market as the best fire sale of...

[BCBiker]

Thank you for letting me know you’re experience. My saving grace is that I’m cheap so won’t buy expensive contracts or positions with unbounded...

[BCBiker]

I was filling out all paperwork prior to pandemic to refinance. They were quite excited about my cash position being able to pay off if I wanted to. ...

[BCBiker]

Thank you for remembering me! I took hiatus from forums to focus on some important work. Today is holiday. I have plenty to keep me busy from options...

[BCBiker]

Oof. Lol. Glad you didn’t figure out how to trade options.

sorry to troll. Quite funny to see how wrong Zappos was on this one. I never...

[BCBiker]

Currently shorts are down $20B in 1 year.

[BCBiker]

You wouldn’t believe what being long TSLA dozens of options (purchased at bargain basement prices) over the last nine months will do to you nw....

[BCBiker]

In nyc. I’m diagnostic specialist so not front line or patient facing in daily role. I’m fully prepared to manage patients on wards if necessary....

[BCBiker]

Yes and that was from Q4. Saying 40-50 M shares per day volume is a few newbies on Robinhood is out of touch with reality of where this is going. If you...

[BCBiker]

Totally. Trying to keep in stride and not make this anymore than WT. F. just happened!!!!.... Ok cool. There is more money. Back to normal. That is why...

[BCBiker]

All taxable. If it was in Roth would have been much better. Would be amazing to have 7fig Roth.

The part about options contracts activity...

[BCBiker]

No way this is retail. I watched order when the stock was flying up and they were all 100-1000 share per order. And there have been multiple streams...

[BCBiker]

Definitely unlikely to be pure short squeeze. Too large of volume. This is most likely large funds betting long. This could have happened over 1 year...

[BCBiker]

Precisely. It was a very small portion of investments. What I have learned is that by having different expiration dates I was able to hold on as the gains...

[BCBiker]

The plurality of cost and majority of gain are June expiration. Of those, I bought them for an average $26 per contract. Total cost for those were <$800....

[BCBiker]

When I successfully exit my call options positions, I will post the numbers. It is by far the most absurd thing I have ever experienced...

[BCBiker]

If Tesla gets to 65% of automotive market in 10-20 years, which I don't think will happen, the current price of the stock would be a huge bargain even...

[BCBiker]

Tim It is funny how smart people can totally disagree. Tesla is the real deal and they have been for a while. It has just taken other smart people a...

[BCBiker]

Interesting read. Seems like having a preapproved manufacturing process where company can insert virus specific genes in production vectors when novel...

[BCBiker]

That does seem to be true for the short term....

[BCBiker]

Yes. Those are generic disclosures.
Tesla is the confluence of multiple challenging yet separate technologies packaged in a compelling way that...

[BCBiker]

Many good points. It is an evolving story. The vaccine story will be interesting because the companies have to decide if it will be serious enough to...

[BCBiker]

If you look through heavily biased lens, you can point to one data point which is easily explained in the context of everything else and is an outlier...

[BCBiker]

This is a good graphic from NYTimes. Assuming the range is 95% CI, I will give you concerning but not much more than that. The graphic should have a...

[BCBiker]

2020 will be a GAAP profit for TSLA, some are predicting as much as $14 per share. I personally don't think it will be that high (just enough to shut...

[BCBiker]

I've been long Tesla forever and it is my only serious non-index fund position. Zaphod and I have duked it out a few times on here. I once told him that...