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The point is that humans have been making technological advances forever. With regard to mkt history, there were railroads, steam engines, telegraph,...
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my base case expectation is a secular bear mkt but i hold a sig stock portfolio because expected returns better there than elsewhere and timing is impossible....
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productivity gains dont create greater earnings growth for the mkt as a whole
only for an individual company if that company is the only one with...
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The "intrinsic" return to stocks is made of the payout and growth. The higher the multiple the lower the future return, for any given payout...
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The market return isn't magic, it's arithmetic. It's dividend payout plus growth adjusted for the change in multiple over the horizon of interest....
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Rather than ask if the stock mkt is "inflated" it's probably more useful to ask if long-term returns will be better, worse, or similar to historical...
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Are you reading? There is an avalanche of research published every week.
Not long ago, I had to learn the indications/exclusions/adverse...Last edited by CM; 05-13-2022, 08:29 PM.
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I can't say I planned any of this, but this is how I've done it:
From 18-35 my focus was on lifting, dancing, clubbing, and lovers. I was...
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I had a big life when I was younger, and my career just got in the way.
At 62, I wouldn't work for free, but I do derive satisfaction from...
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We are the leading member of NATO. Russian wars of aggression in Eastern Europe are of critical importance to the US....
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I climb > 400 stairs/day monday-friday, partly for exercise and partly because i hate waiting for anything, including elevators. However, if you don’t...
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I agree. If I didn't do the work my name doesn't belong on it....
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My first mouthguard was too thin/weak and I cracked it while sleeping.
After wearing the same mouthguard for about 13 years, my dentist said...
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I didn't know that I was grinding my teeth while sleeping until I was about 45 and woke up with a chipped tooth, the remainder still loose in my mouth....
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A patient came to me and said that his orthopedist needed me to order a vascular study before the orthopedist would operate. What the ?...
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You don't have to interpret an ECG to order one. A cardiologist will interpret the ECG you order.
I order chest CTs that I don't interpret....
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Theft.
Gold bars can be stored in safer locations, though I'm not familiar with the options and don't even know where I could buy the bars...
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This has already happened as a part of Western sanctions against Russia. So far, a couple of yachts have been seized, but it (apparently) isn't so straightforward...
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Yes, but houses wouldn't disappear in a puff of cyber smoke. As I wrote, I don't think there is a good answer to that threat....
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I have a significant gold position in ETFs. Keeping gold bars at the house (to save from cyber attack) carries greater risks than that of cyber attac...
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This is an important risk, in my view. Unfortunately, I don't have a good answer for it. I hold assets across multiple institutions, including treasurydirect,...
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Yes, my equity allocation is 100% int'l. I own gold ETFs, LT US treasurys, and cash equivalents.
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From WSJ:
House lawmakers have introduced legislation designed to end normal trade relations with Russia with measures that could significantly...
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This. The biggest threat to the market is the rate-rising cycle. The downturn was triggered by the Fed announcing its intention to finally begin.
...
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After seeing the love for FIPhysician above, I went to the site and read 11 Reasons to Not Own I-Bonds. It was one of the worst pieces I've ever read...
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Not feeling attacked.
I'm not predicting a crash, just low long-term returns, because -- history....
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The prospective S&P 500 dividend yield is 1.39%:
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab
Holding valuation constant, total,...
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Anything is possible, but I think it is crazy to project 7% real returns as a base case today. The historical average return is based on historical average...
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Just curious, are 403b rules different than 401K rules?
With 401K, the employer match is capped for highly compensated employees. For 2021,...
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If I thought about this when I was in my 30s I might have written something similar. However, at nearly 63, I can tell you that $3M doesn't provide a...
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Some people cannot imagine a fate worse than continuing in their current career.
FIRE does not imply idleness. It simply provides the option...
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Dr. Doom was not a physician. I think his blog avatar was a character from a video game or comic book series. He was a tech employee earning a good salary,...
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Yes, as I recall, she was also going to contribute $30K per year from her portfolio. They were going to live on about $60k/year. I believe that was a...
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I read Living a FI/Dr. Doom before he retired. It's fairly clear the author suffered from depression before FIRE. He also hated his job. He needed to...
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That is probably true for a physician earning less than colleagues, but not necessarily true for someone who has negotiated better terms. That is, it...
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My colleagues and I have never discussed details of our compensation. I don't know their contracted $/wRVU or how many wRVUs they earn....
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Unless the cardiologists talk to each other about their respective contracts, they don't know if the rates are different....
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Hospitals may negotiate different rates with different physicians, even if they claim that they are offering uniform contracts....
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$350K is low, but the base doesn't matter if she receives bonuses so that her pay = wRVU X $/wRVU. What matters is her contracted $/wRVU rate, and total...
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We don't take our dogs into Lowe's, but they are very unhappy about that. They are unhappy any time they are separated from my wife, and they do seem...
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Whether the advice concerns the vaccine, smoking, diet, wt loss, statin therapy, or anything else, it won't benefit the patient if you enter into a "debate."...
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These folks aren't right wing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-UUy0aFKrE
Neither am I, but Fauci appears less than admi...
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One of our intensivists in the early 1990s had horrific, dolls-head hair plugs, so that was my impression of hair transplants, until the YouTube algorithm...
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I responded to this statement: "If I put $1m in equities in 1999 it wouldn't have been worth less in 2009. That gives me piece of mind."...
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Actually, it was worth less.
The annualized, total (i.e., dividends reinvested), real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) S&P 500 return was -3.17%...
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US real stock market returns have been negative for up to 20 years in the past. They've also been negative for 30 years in Japan, the last leader in nat'l...
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Start a new practice an hour away and try to duplicate the first? Definitely not.
One day a week luxuriously paced community health? No....
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I also grew up lower middle class. I worked part-time through second year of med school.
I don't believe a kid who receives plenty of parental...
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I have four cousins (from one family) who are teachers. I doubt my aunt and uncle helped them much with money because they didn't have a lot. Nevertheless,...
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I've written about prospective returns many times on this site. CliffsNotes:
Equity returns are comprised of dividends, growth (i.e., earnings...
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Because my long-term return projections are decidedly not rosy....
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There seems to be a significant probability that you will break up again, but this time with the financial entanglement of the house.
You...
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Given what you've written, buying a house together is a terrible idea.
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Investing had been my hobby for years before I burned out and left cardiology 20 years ago. I spent 2 1/2 years studying finance, accounting, and equity...
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I believe Indiana is a very physician-friendly state regarding malpractice legislation.
Physician salaries are higher in small towns (and...
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I don't plan to travel much either. I took a year off at 34 and visited most of the remaining places I wanted to see. Most people seem to love travel,...
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I have the same problem with my cardiology clinic. Today is a "vacation day," but I'll be at work for about 4 hours handling pt calls, reviewing...
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I purchased a sports car for $75,654 (adjusted for inflation) less than 2 years out of training while earning $282,443 (adjusted for inflation). I had...
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This is a nice handout for patients from the "Plant-Based Dietary Pattern" podcast:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bb...
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Dietary Recommendations Podcast Series from ACC
The American College of Cardiology is creating a series of podcasts on dietary recommendations, and I thought some forum members would be interested....
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I start at 6 a.m. and work at rapid pace til at least 5 p.m. Mon-Fri, average about 55 hours per week. I'm not sure I've ever worked less than 50 hours...
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Youth is (or in my case, "was") the most precious currency. Work can be onerous, but at least in my case, it's less onerous and interferes less...
- 4 likes
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I cut back when I realized I was going to burn out again. The decision revolved around quality of life rather than dollars.
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I'm not a lawyer, but if you have any liability here, the system is broken. Your schedule is full. You are doing all you can do. What if 50 patients want...
- 6 likes
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That was amazing. I didn't see any of the matches. Hoping to catch them on YouTube at some point....
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Tamyra Mensah-Stock is my new favorite wrestler. Hard not to love her after watching this interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hI...
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What I do is very difficult, but I don't need to be in combat to know that it is orders of magnitude more difficult than what I do.
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I agree. "Rich" means not having to work or worry about money....
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I have personal experience. Shortly after I started as an equity analyst, the Spitzer settlement tripled our coverage list as the company positioned itself...
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There was no internet in 1980, and if US News was ranking schools back then, I didn't know about it. I was the first person in the history of my extended...
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My mom wouldn't let my dad retire until he was 69, and only then after I had long discussion with her about their favorable financial circumstances....
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I sold my car in Chicago in 2007 after I met my then girlfriend, now wife, and she didn't own one. I rented one when needed for road trips.
...
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Yes. That's why I invest in international indexes. The EAFE PE10 is about 1/2 the US PE10 despite lower interest rates in most of the developed world,...Last edited by CM; 07-20-2021, 07:22 PM.
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