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Retirement portfolio has dropped dramatically - seeking help

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  • #16
    The first thing you need to do is to understand that the stock market, on average, over time, delivers a better return than savings accounts or bonds. But that on average higher return o stock market investments comes with a downside, namely volatility. The stock market will fluctuate, sometimes violently.

    You need to know that the stock market goes up roughly 2/3 of days/weeks/years. But it also goes down on average 1/3 of days, weeks, or years. The market being down is a normal thing, and it does not mean that you need to change how you have invested. But your reaction to the current down market means that you need to become better educated about how market values go up and down over time, and how to manage your personal psychological reaction in relation to those normal fluctuations. People who react to market fluctuations by changing their investment behavior often lose out on substantial gains when the market recovers, as it typically tends to do.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by rozeb View Post
      Appreciate some sage advice from this brain trust -



      My retirement portfolio has dropped dramatically.

      For my 403B (pre and post-tax), I was using the following split:

      25% Target Fund - I will retire in about 25-30 years (-14.06% YTD)
      10% Large-cap Vanguard Index fund (-12.44% YTD)
      50% Mid-cap Vanguard Index fund (-17.97% YTD)
      15% Blue chip (-24.5% YTD)

      I am thinking for future investments to move majority into target retirement fund (70%) and pull out of the others or reduce investment to 10% in the remaining 3.

      What would you all do?
      The market is down, what can you do?

      Why did you buy those and what makes you think they are now terrible?

      You're not retiring for decades, this is a normal and expected amount of downside, especially after 3 banger years and some inflation.

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      • #18
        I was reading this thread and reminded I had a chunk of cash and some dead weight to sell off, which I did around 1:30 central time and immediately purchased $50k of VTI. Literally a few minutes later the fed announces the interest rate change and *boom* the DJ shoots up, VTI spikes $6/share by the end of trading.

        Now, I was a little excited about playing the timing right, but my glee was tempered by 1.) wishing I had purchased more, and 2.) the reality of dollar cost averaging, because at some point down the road the exact same scenario will play out and VTI will tank $6/share. Play the long game, like everyone has said. If you have the right allocation in your portfolio, turn of the news/noise when things are bad and wait it out.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by GlassPusher View Post
          I was reading this thread and reminded I had a chunk of cash and some dead weight to sell off, which I did around 1:30 central time and immediately purchased $50k of VTI. Literally a few minutes later the fed announces the interest rate change and *boom* the DJ shoots up, VTI spikes $6/share by the end of trading.

          Now, I was a little excited about playing the timing right, but my glee was tempered by 1.) wishing I had purchased more, and 2.) the reality of dollar cost averaging, because at some point down the road the exact same scenario will play out and VTI will tank $6/share. Play the long game, like everyone has said. If you have the right allocation in your portfolio, turn of the news/noise when things are bad and wait it out.
          5/5/22 @ 1300 hours, 24 hours later: I rest my case [DJIA down 1100 pts]

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          • #20
            Originally posted by GlassPusher View Post

            5/5/22 @ 1300 hours, 24 hours later: I rest my case [DJIA down 1100 pts]
            Let it drop as much as it needs too. Let the house prices drop too . Let’s live in a real world, not this artificially inflated one ! Not a fan of paying extra price for everything .

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            • #21
              Originally posted by rozeb View Post
              Appreciate some sage advice from this brain trust -



              My retirement portfolio has dropped dramatically.

              For my 403B (pre and post-tax), I was using the following split:

              25% Target Fund - I will retire in about 25-30 years (-14.06% YTD)
              10% Large-cap Vanguard Index fund (-12.44% YTD)
              50% Mid-cap Vanguard Index fund (-17.97% YTD)
              15% Blue chip (-24.5% YTD)

              I am thinking for future investments to move majority into target retirement fund (70%) and pull out of the others or reduce investment to 10% in the remaining 3.

              What would you all do?
              Interesting portfolio for several reasons:

              1) Who buys a TR fund and then mixes it with individual stocks? (Or is that a blue chip fund, which is basically the same as large cap)
              2) That's a huge mid cap tilt, especially interesting given there are almost no small cap tilts. No international? No bonds? (At least outside of the TR fund) Feels like the portfolio was designed by looking at what had the best returns in the prior ten years.
              3) Mixing a TR fund with anything seems a little silly too.
              4) You seem to be looking at every account separately.

              But the biggest problem here is that you have a portfolio that you don't believe in long term. First time you come up to a little hiccup in the markets (which happens about once a year) and you're ready to make massive changes. Find a plan you can stick with through thick and thin, and then stay the course. Whether this is your long term plan or not, I cannot tell. But switching after a drop isn't something you want to do multiple times in your life.
              Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

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              • #22
                The worst part of your portfolio is that you don't want to stick with it. Imo that means you had the wrong portfolio. Given its already gone down a lot, I might be hesitant to change anything, but assuming it eventually tracks back up, I think you should def reevaluate, because you're def gonna bail if things get really hairy and thats the most likely way you can lose in the long run

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by JBME View Post
                  stocks are on sale. buy more. not joking
                  Yup, buy more. Pray for more pain. Buy more. Pray for the for the fed to jack up the rates. Then buy even more. Don't pray for violence, but if it happens...
                  Click image for larger version

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                  buy more with the doctor money.

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                  • #24
                    How old are you?
                    Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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