Market timing "addiction" recovery needed.

[noexit]

My wife and I have been maxing out backdoor Roths each year for a few years now making a single contribution with our tax refunds or annual bonuses when they are available. However, last year during COVID I got cold feet in moving our contribution from the funds' cash account into an actual low cost index fund. I've been "predicting" a significant "market downturn" for over 18 months now (referencing March 2020) but the market keeps going up. How should I remediate my cold feet behavior with last year's contribution and now 2021 that I'm about to make? Just move it all at once or spread it out over a certain duration? Or something else?

[Craigslist]

Wait one more day the market will go down I promise

[Nysoz]

Just lump sum it in usually wins. If you're terribly concerned, DCA it in over 6 months or whatever.

Also if you're concerned that the market is overvalued and didn't want to contribute to your desired asset allocation, maybe your asset allocation is too aggressive.

[CordMcNally]

I would just invest it all at once and quit worrying about it.

[JBME]

invest it all. And if you're 10+ years from retirement, you should get giddy rather than cold feet during a downturn. That means stocks are on sale! When you purchase a material good, you probably get a good feeling that you got a deal when you buy it on "sale" rather than "regular" price. Think of stocks the same way. I did our backdoor Roths for 2020 in March because that was when we had the funds ready and I was super excited because it was mid March and I felt we were going to get so much ROI from that. Turns out in hindsight I haven't gotten that good an ROI in a long time so I'm even more giddy. But in reality I just got lucky. Still, get excited when things go on sale, including stocks, as long as you're not close to retirement

[Random1]

I would buy a pair of warm socks , and put money in the market when you have it rather than trying to figure out the right time.

If you are real nervous, divide the total amount saved by 6 and have it automatically taking out of your account to go to whatever fund you choose. Might not be the best advice , but you may sleep better that way.

[Zaphod]

You just gotta get over it and do it.

This isnt market timing its just inertia and cash holding behavior.

Do you retire in the next couple years? Yes, then put it towards your cash equivalents etc....

No? Then stop overthinking it, invest. Most people have felt this way since the beginning of time, markets go up over time (we hope it continues).

[CordMcNally]

To pile on a bit more, not making a decision is still making a decision.

[abds]

Two of my biggest ever lump sum investments were end of 2018 and then January-ish 2020. Obviously sucked when the market dropped precipitously shortly after each one. And now I would love to buy into the S&P500 at 2900 and 3300 again.

So just put your money in now. It'll go down at some point. Maybe it'll go up first and the nadir of the drop is above current value. Or maybe it'll drop well below today's levels. But in 10 years you'll probably wish you could buy in at today's cost.

[zlandar]

You need an average return on a physician income to retire comfortably.

Or you can take on the additional risk of micromanaging your investments to death.

[ShredtheGnar]

2 year’s of BD Roth is not a ton of $s. You are correct in your assumption about the market tanking. It will. You could leave that cash there as “dry powder”. You might miss out on years of more unbridled enthusiasm in the markets or you can buy back in once the market tanks and make a lot of $s. No one knows what direction the market will go in the near future. Especially not an issue as long as you are investing as normal in other accounts and meeting your savings rate goals. Just remember that the market trends upward over an extended period of time (although has also been down or flat for a decade too).

[Tim]

Read up on how to build a fire under your butt.
"This expression dates from the invention of the ****************** fast-boiler (Anthracite burning Superheated Steam) by T. Gooch in 1849 for the Middlewich- Muckynge light railway. To light a fire under your "******************" meant you were about to make something move very fast indeed."
Done.