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This is What Life Without Retirement Savings Looks Like

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  • #31







    People like to question whether or not it’s a good idea to retire using the 4% rule when you have 25 years’ worth of expenses saved. But the fact is many, many people don’t even have one year’s expenses covered.

    If you’re wondering if your $2.5 Million in retirement savings is adequate, or if you should wait until you’re closer to $3.33 million, recognize that you’re in better shape than at least 95% of potential retirees, and more than $2 Million ahead of the average.

    Cheers!

    -PoF
    Click to expand…


    You aren’t really setting the bar very high if you are using the average household making $70k/year as a benchmark to compare to an MD making on average 4x+ that amount.
    Click to expand...


    At the risk of sounding like a broken record as I beat a dead horse, retirement savings should be based solely upon your anticipated household spending and not upon your household income. I realize that people who earn more tend to spend more, but that doesn't change the math for the 4% rule of thumb.

    The numbers I used are for a household spending $100,000 a year. 4% at $2.5 Million or 3% at $3.33 Million. I don't think that's unreasonably low spending for a retired couple, even if one or both were physicians. Obviously, it's easy to spend more.

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    • #32
      Regarding UBI, I think it could be a successful program at some point in the far future. Right now it would be hard for the U.S. to afford a UBI high enough to be meaningful but low enough to be affordable. The reason many safety net programs are targeted is to reduce the cost and spend resources on the most vulnerable.

       

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      • #33










        People like to question whether or not it’s a good idea to retire using the 4% rule when you have 25 years’ worth of expenses saved. But the fact is many, many people don’t even have one year’s expenses covered.

        If you’re wondering if your $2.5 Million in retirement savings is adequate, or if you should wait until you’re closer to $3.33 million, recognize that you’re in better shape than at least 95% of potential retirees, and more than $2 Million ahead of the average.

        Cheers!

        -PoF
        Click to expand…


        You aren’t really setting the bar very high if you are using the average household making $70k/year as a benchmark to compare to an MD making on average 4x+ that amount.
        Click to expand…


        At the risk of sounding like a broken record as I beat a dead horse, retirement savings should be based solely upon your anticipated household spending and not upon your household income. I realize that people who earn more tend to spend more, but that doesn’t change the math for the 4% rule of thumb.

        The numbers I used are for a household spending $100,000 a year. 4% at $2.5 Million or 3% at $3.33 Million. I don’t think that’s unreasonably low spending for a retired couple, even if one or both were physicians. Obviously, it’s easy to spend more.
        Click to expand...


        Agreed, but what does that have to do with having more retirement savings than 95% of potential retirees?  If I run out of money in retirement, I won't take solace knowing 95% of the population also ran out of money and are now relying on handouts from the government or relatives just like me.

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        • #34
          4% rate on 2.5 million gives you 100,000 income, but not neceesarily spending depending on what kind of accounts you tap. Roth, yes that 100,000 is pure spening money. Regular IRA, you need more than your 2.5 million. While thats obvious to some, I think its an important clarification as you might need 3 million to fund after-tax spend of 100,000.

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          • #35
            Regarding UBI...

            Predictable cognitive and manual work will be 100% automated in this century. In the developed world there will not be enough meaningful work to go around. What society does with the productivity gains will probably be up to the people who gained the most.

            Radio bit last night about how Levi's is using automation to distress jeans... whereas previously it took 20 minutes of human capital for each pair, now takes 90 seconds. Automating people out of work to make consumers appear like they do work.

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            • #36




              Regarding UBI…

              Predictable cognitive and manual work will be 100% automated in this century. In the developed world there will not be enough meaningful work to go around. What society does with the productivity gains will probably be up to the people who gained the most.

              Radio bit last night about how Levi’s is using automation to distress jeans… whereas previously it took 20 minutes of human capital for each pair, now takes 90 seconds. Automating people out of work to make consumers appear like they do work.
              Click to expand...


              Well you need someone to buy the goods. People need some kind of meaning to their life, we will find different vocations for people im sure in softer skills and what we now categorize as volunteer work. People will find something to do, most I hope, the rest will be like Idiocracy if not.

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              • #37




                Regarding UBI…

                Predictable cognitive and manual work will be 100% automated in this century. In the developed world there will not be enough meaningful work to go around. What society does with the productivity gains will probably be up to the people who gained the most.

                Radio bit last night about how Levi’s is using automation to distress jeans… whereas previously it took 20 minutes of human capital for each pair, now takes 90 seconds. Automating people out of work to make consumers appear like they do work.
                Click to expand...


                The luddites said the same thing during the industrial revolution.

                Society advances and improves.  This has been going on for thousands of years.

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                • #38

                  From strawberries to apples, a wave of agriculture robotics may ease the farm labor crunch


                  https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/wave-of-agriculture-robotics-holds-potential-to-ease-farm-labor-crunch.html

                   

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                  • #39


                    Well you need someone (with credit) to buy the goods. People need some kind of meaning to their life, we will find different vocations for people im sure in softer skills and what we now categorize as volunteer work. (edit mine)
                    Click to expand...


                    I agree - the definition of meaningful work for many will have to change. Unless what is considered volunteer work now generates some economic value in the future, paying them in the future is basically just a Qualified UBI.

                    I paid for a lot of med school with Community Service Work Study hours...

                     


                    The luddites said the same thing during the industrial revolution. Society advances and improves.  This has been going on for thousands of years.
                    Click to expand...


                    Presupposes that the human capital of the bottom 50% can keep pace with the skills required to do the bottom 50% of meaningful work. Guess it depends how that coal miner coding camp turns out...

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