Poll: Where will gas prices peak?

[Tangler]

Here is the picture from Norway. I think she was pulling my leg, (or did a pretty bad job with her viking math).

$1= 8 Noerwegian kroner (1 us dollars = 8 kroner)

27 kroner / litter x 3.78 L/gallon x 1 us dollar / 8 kroner = $ 12.76 / gallon

So, perhaps she was saying it costs 27 -28 kroner / litter? I may have misunderstood her, or she was just making stuff up, or her viking math was off or I am smoking meth again.

[Kamban]

Here is the picture from Norway. I think she was pulling my leg, (or did a pretty bad job with her viking math).

$1= 8 Noerwegian kroner (1 us dollars = 8 kroner)

27 kroner / litter x 3.78 L/gallon x 1 us dollar / 8 kroner = $ 12.76 / gallon

So, perhaps she was saying it costs 27 -28 kroner / litter? I may have misunderstood her, or she was just making stuff up, or her viking math was off or I am smoking meth again.

And that is 95 Octane gas. In parts of LA the 93 Octane is $5.5 or more. So $12 for a 95 Octane in high COL Norway is not bad.

[Kamban]

Because of those $12/gallon prices there

Norway's stunning new EV numbers: 84% of new car sales in January all electric. Official numbers published this week have revealed that 83.7% of all new cars sold across Norway in January were electric vehicles, with 19 of the top 20 vehicles coming with a cable.

Importantly, electric vehicles benefited greatly in January from the fact that the Norwegian Government has yet to impose a VAT on new EVs.

[Tangler]

And that is 95 Octane gas. In parts of LA the 93 Octane is $5.5 or more. So $12 for a 95 Octane in high COL Norway is not bad.

“$12/gallon is not bad”, really?

[FIREshrink]

I think there’s a miscalculation there. $28/gallon gas anywhere would be all over the news. $28/gallon gas would wreck a country’s transportation-dependent supplies/jobs.

Sounds like it was a misquote, but if 9/10 new cars sold are EV then gas prices have a much smaller impact. There are still trucking, aviation, other costs but along with no VAT on EVs it does show that tax policy can effectively be used to drive behavior change, in this case one that is ostensibly better for the environment. Obviously there is no political will or popular support for such policies in the US.

[CordMcNally]

Sounds like it was a misquote, but if 9/10 new cars sold are EV then gas prices have a much smaller impact. There are still trucking, aviation, other costs but along with no VAT on EVs it does show that tax policy can effectively be used to drive behavior change, in this case one that is ostensibly better for the environment. Obviously there is no political will or popular support for such policies in the US.

I don't believe there are any viable semi, plane, or rail EV options yet and likely won't be any time soon. I'm still not a big fan of trying to legislate something like energy usage. These things just take time and at some point we'll likely have much more robust and sustainable green energy. Throwing ridiculous money at green energy grift companies is probably not the way forward. The tricky part is that EVs still take a significant input of fossil fuels but the end consumer just doesn't see it.

[Tangler]

I don't believe there are any viable semi, plane, or rail EV options yet and likely won't be any time soon. I'm still not a big fan of trying to legislate something like energy usage. These things just take time and at some point we'll likely have much more robust and sustainable green energy. Throwing ridiculous money at green energy grift companies is probably not the way forward. The tricky part is that EVs still take a significant input of fossil fuels but the end consumer just doesn't see it.

Wait, you don’t think the government can efficiently innovate and pick winners? They are so nimble and efficient.🙄

[Lordosis]

I agree that unless we produce more electricity in ways that are not fossil fuels everyone switching to an EV is not going to help much.

Also EVs are still not practical for a very large chuck of the population. Anyone without a garage would be in for a huge hassle. Us rich doctors have homes with garages but many people do not have that luxury. And filling up at a charging station is not super easy in a lot of areas. Closest one to me is 30 minutes away for a fast charger.

[Lithium]

I noticed gas prices are down a cent today. Bet you guys are all wondering why. Well it’s because I reduced demand by cycling 40 miles round trip to the dentist yesterday. And walked 2 miles to work this Am. You’re all welcome.

[Tim]

Sounds like it was a misquote, but if 9/10 new cars sold are EV then gas prices have a much smaller impact. There are still trucking, aviation, other costs but along with no VAT on EVs it does show that tax policy can effectively be used to drive behavior change, in this case one that is ostensibly better for the environment. Obviously there is no political will or popular support for such policies in the US.

"Norway is a large energy producer, and one of the world's largest exporters of oil. Most of the electricity in the country is produced by hydroelectricity. Norway is one of the leading countries in the electrification of its transport sector, with the largest fleet of electric vehicles per capita in the world (see plug-in electric vehicles in Norway and electric car use by country).
Since the discovery of North Sea oil in Norwegian waters during the late 1960s, exports of oil and gas have become very important elements of the economy of Norway. With North Sea oil production having peaked, disagreements over exploration for oil in the Barents Sea, the prospect of exploration in the Arctic, as well as growing international concern over global warming, energy in Norway is currently receiving close attention."

"Norway is a small player in the global crude market with production covering about 2 per cent of the global demand. Norwegian production of natural gas covers approximately 3 per cent of global demand, however, as an exporter Norway is a significant country. Norway is the third largest exporter of natural gas in the world, behind Russia and Qatar only. Norway supplies between 20 and 25 per cent of the EU gas demand. Nearly all oil and gas produced on the Norwegian shelf is exported, and combined, oil and gas equals about half of the total value of Norwegian exports of goods. This makes oil and gas the most important export commodities in the Norwegian economy.

Why is Norway's gasoline expensive? It is not because of supply. Most of their electric power is hydro. It is because the export the vast majority of oil. From a consumer standpoint, EV's make sense.
You actually need context for the Scandinavian countries regarding energy:
Source of power now vs desired. Not much sacrifice for Norway, just use the available hydro power supply.
Use of power now vs desired. Not much sacrifice for Norway, just buy and EV vehicle.

If the global natural resources were close to evenly distribute, most countries would have switched to EV's as soon as available. The question is why did not Norway lead the way in developing EV's? Should they pay a premium to subsidize the intellectual property and cost.

Make no mistake. The technology for the extreme exploration and production cost in the cold artic (North Sea and Alaska) was not paid for by Norway, Canada, Saudi Arabia, or Russia. The same with deep water and shale and tar sands. Intellectual property and innovations have been greatly undervalued. Some want it for free and steal it.

No tell me again why gas is expensive in Norway? Because the let someone else refine it.

[Kamban]

“$12/gallon is not bad”, really?

When a pizza costs $50 and up in Oslo I think $12 for a gallon of super premium gas in Norway is not bad. Remember it is a socialist country with high taxes. Beer is so expensive that people go to Sweden to stock up on it. Fresh fruits is unheard of in Northern Norway. I thought our Indian restaurant meal in Helsinki was expensive till a friend told me of what he paid in Oslo.

I am so glad I live in USA with sunshine, warm weather and fresh fruits and vegetables.

[Kamban]

I don't believe there are any viable semi, plane, or rail EV options yet and likely won't be any time soon. I'm still not a big fan of trying to legislate something like energy usage. These things just take time and at some point we'll likely have much more robust and sustainable green energy. Throwing ridiculous money at green energy grift companies is probably not the way forward. The tricky part is that EVs still take a significant input of fossil fuels but the end consumer just doesn't see it.

I can understand semi and planes but rail?? It should have been 💯 % electric by now. Even a third world India has 80 % of all trains electric and plans to be 100 % electric by 2024.

Electricity from natural gas is still fossil fuel but better than coal for climate. Small baby steps to renewable keeping oil and coal still open.

[Tim]

I can understand semi and planes but rail?? It should have been 💯 % electric by now. Even a third world India has 80 % of all trains electric and plans to be 100 % electric by 2024.

Electricity from natural gas is still fossil fuel but better than coal for climate. Small baby steps to renewable keeping oil and coal still open.

Small baby steps?
https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/india
Like 90% of the energy comes mostly from coal and then oil. There is another level here. The source of the power is pretty important. The total efficiency is a huge factor. Are the trains the "new efficient" models and how much do trains account for in the usage? I am not knocking India. They are still an emerging market country. India is the 3rd country in CO2 emissions. No much per person, but what they use per person is terrible because of the reliance on coal. I would be curious about the total efficiency by mile or usage. Source to consumption. That includes to cars, trains, houses etc.
This would be the map from efficient generation, distribution and usage. Taking one component out of context is the problem with simply attacking the source.
Skip the second, third and fourth levels of an effective solution. US rail is actually very efficient as a distribution network. If the energy source is oil, pipelines then rail then trucks. How does India get the coal? Simply saying 100 % electric trains is cherry picking. There are huge costs (energy generation both economically and financially) to power those electric trains. Might be better with natural gas, diesel trains or nuclear. Not so sure electric trains is the answer for the US or India.

[Dont_know_mind]

For heavy/larger vehicles, EV's/batteries for these are pie in the sky stuff IMO. I think hydrogen is the best option there, but it isn't very popular or sexy.

I guess in terms of oil/fossil fuels, I don't know why there needs to be any meddling in the price mechanism other than a price for carbon.

The cure for low oil production (or any resource underproduction) is years of sky high prices. Which is what happens anyway. It's just curious how the narrative goes from oil being a stranded resource to oil shortage to I guess next the "peak oil", the world is running out of oil narrative (which usually marks the peak in the price).

Maybe oil is a stranded asset and maybe it could go to $300 a barrel. Maybe government spending will be directed there and by the time they build Keystone XL or whatever infrastructure (in 5 years), will be just in time to add to supply as it moves back to $20 again.

That is the whole thing with resource cycles. The supply next year isn't going to be affected by what is done today. That was 4 years ago. What we do today affects supply in 5 years. I don't think the government should be doing anything different because prices are going up. It's too late now.

The price mechanism is a great thing. The economy survived oil going from $90/barrel to $0/barrel, and it will probably survive oil at $300 a barrel, as long as it's not too abrupt, despite the hand wringing. Maybe there won't even be a recession in the US. In some ways if the Fed doesn't hike rates much, they are compensating for higher oil prices which maybe like a rate hike or 2. The main losers in that case I would guess would be bondholders.

[Kamban]

Small baby steps?
https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/india

I was talking about USA slowly weaning itself off coal via natural gas to renewables.

As far as India ( and to certain extent, China too) they don't have the money nor the reserves of oil or natural gas. Their only two real options are coal ( I think they have something like 500 years worth of coal reserves) and solar / wind. Just like they skipped land lines and went to cell phone for most people, they are trying to jump directly from coal to renewables. Will take a long time.

The last time I went there I saw more solar panels on the rooftops in major cities than I see here. And some places have long lines of wind turbines.