Originally posted by Panscan
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5-7 way too conservative. How often has a 100% equities allocation been down for a 5-7 year period
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Originally posted by RJB View PostI know you can’t time the market. I know this. And I also know that the correct answer to the question I’m about to ask, is to stay the course, but dang it I can’t help but think. Can’t help but to wonder. I think, based on the ever brewing wave of COVID-19 and ensuing restrictions that we are headed for a rocky 3rd and 4th quarter of 2021. Should I hoard cash maybe sell some bonds and wait for the dip? It’s getting harder and harder to buy overpriced VTI.
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"time in the market is better than timing the market". Like clockwork, every week I buy regardless of what the market is doing at this moment.
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Originally posted by Turf Doc View Post
I dont think it is.. the point is that a lot goes on when youre on the sidelines and it's basically impossible to only be in during the good times. Market timers lose plain and simple - this is just an extreme (and yes unrealistic) example of the consequences
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Originally posted by billy View Post
You are one of the ones who would benefit from someone else managing your money. Try for as low a fee as possible, but the fees would probably be worth it in your case. No shame if you can recognize your fear/paralysis and let someone else handle it.
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Originally posted by Tim View Post
Investing is boring. Find adrenaline rush in something else.
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Originally posted by Practice View PostThis is something I really struggle with. I was fine investing from 2011 - 2013 but ever since then I put less and less money to work. And the market just keeps marching higher. I put some money to work in April and the summer of 2020 but not enough and the market kept ripping higher. So I'm overweight in cash and only take small positions because the market is expensive, yet keeps going higher. It seems like every year it gets harder and harder for me to pull the trigger and put my money to work.
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Originally posted by Tangler View PostAdvice:
1. update an IPS that you can live with.
2. Keep AA according to IPS
3. Keep investing in VTI or VTSAX
4. Turn off the news (it is terrible and annoying anyway with little helpful info and plenty of info designed to anger, enrage, and scare)
5. Focus time on activities that bring fulfillment and improvement.
I need to do same.
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Advice:
1. update an IPS that you can live with.
2. Keep AA according to IPS
3. Keep investing in VTI or VTSAX
4. Turn off the news (it is terrible and annoying anyway with little helpful info and plenty of info designed to anger, enrage, and scare)
5. Focus time on activities that bring fulfillment and improvement.
I need to do same.
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Behavioral finance:
1) Want to miss the worst day, worst week, worst month, worst year.
2) Want to catch the best day, best week, best month, best year.
All you have to do is pick when to get in, get out, and back in. Fear of loss is stronger than rush of gains. That is why one sits in cash.
The only way to lose is not to ride. Ride every bull you can. If you get thrown off, so what, get back on as soon as you can. Guaranteed loss if you don’t get on, inflation will kill you.
Have a plan to invest as soon as you can. Get your emotions out of it. Make a plan and follow it. Worrying is not an actionable emotion.
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Something that always helps me look at things from a new perspective is looking at old forum posts on bogleheads and the like. People in 2016 who said the exact same things, saying it's getting frothy, etc etc. And what would have happened if got out in 2016? Lost out on a lot, thats what.
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Originally posted by Zaphod View Post
This is a dumb stat. The best days come after the worst days, its just simple volatility clustering. Turns out if you missed the whole week of best days, you actually outperform, because you missed a whole lot of worst days coming into that "best day".
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Originally posted by Turf Doc View Postbetween 2005 and 2020, if you missed the best 10 days in the market, you cut your return in half. You that confident?
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