Pile up cash, or stay the course

[Random1]

This would be a great time to set up an automatic investment plan. Set up an account with Vanguard or where ever. Have x amount of $ taken out of your account on the first of the month put it into VTI or target date fund and forget about it. Once it becomes automatic you tend stop worrying so much.

Most of investing is not complicated. Almost every basic investment book out there gives the same advice of not trying to time the market. If you are having trouble with a basic concept of investing for the long term, it might be a good time to ask for help from an advisor to feel more comfortable with your decisions.

[Zaphod]

I dont think it is.. the point is that a lot goes on when youre on the sidelines and it's basically impossible to only be in during the good times. Market timers lose plain and simple - this is just an extreme (and yes unrealistic) example of the consequences

It is a bad stat since the converse, if you just missed the ten worst days, would be an amazing return, but again, would be just as meaningless since they followed by the best days.

Its a cherry picked and back fit data point that doesnt help anything, since you can make any argument with data if you cherry pick.

[zlandar]

Stay on the yellow brick road.

[dennis]

I'll quote Jane Bryant Quinn again: "The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room".

[Practice]

Wow, what did you do in March 2020 and since then? A little scary if you kept accumulating cash. Wonder how many times over you could have paid for some good financial planning with all of the growth you've given up with your conservative stance...

Yeah these are interesting times. I simply cannot let anyone else take responsibility for allocating my capital. It's not scary accumulating cash, it's interesting. I finally got my first 10 bagger with Microsoft. I bought 10 years ago, now I'm making 10% in dividends on my initial investment, so even if it drops in half, I am not selling. I'm like an alligator, I just wait for easy prey and then make a move. I only need 1 or 2 good ideas every 1 or 2 years.

[Practice]

You are one of the ones who would benefit from someone else managing your money. Try for as low a fee as possible, but the fees would probably be worth it in your case. No shame if you can recognize your fear/paralysis and let someone else handle it.

That is a valid idea, but I can not let anyone else be responsible for my capital allocation decisions. The responsibility is mine alone, so I'll just learn and adapt. I think it was Seneca who said It takes the whole of life to learn how to live.

[Sigrid]

That is a valid idea, but I can not let anyone else be responsible for my capital allocation decisions. The responsibility is mine alone, so I'll just learn and adapt. I think it was Seneca who said It takes the whole of life to learn how to live.

You say "live and learn", but what exactly have you learned over the last ten years? That you make investment choices based primarily on emotions? That your crystal ball is as cloudy as everyone else's? How are you adapting to those relevations?

[xraygoggles]

I'm like an alligator, I just wait for easy prey and then make a move. I only need 1 or 2 good ideas every 1 or 2 years.

Nothing wrong with picking & choosing a few potential multi-baggers, but not putting the rest of your money to work is probably unwise.

[Tim]

Nothing wrong with picking & choosing a few potential multi-baggers, but not putting the rest of your money to work is probably unwise.

Nothing wrong unless you haven't spent the time to learn how to do it and manage the higher risk.

[Tangler]

Place it in VTSAX. Turn off news. Wait 20 years. You will be happy.

[jfoxcpacfp]

That is a valid idea, but I can not let anyone else be responsible for my capital allocation decisions. The responsibility is mine alone, so I'll just learn and adapt. I think it was Seneca who said It takes the whole of life to learn how to live.

Too bad. This appears to be taken out of context.

Believe it or not (and don’t know about other firms), our clients are responsible for their capital allocation decisions, but they pay a lot of attention to the advice and education we provide. Where would we all be if we used that concept in the realm of healthcare, for example? I don’t think Seneca meant learning in a vacuum. Surely there are times you have to admit you don’t have the whole of life to reinvent the wheel that someone else has focused their career on perfecting. Not using that in the sense that you, I, or any other professional knows it all, but it may benefit you to accept that life is short and you must choose your battles and accept that you cannot be jack of all trades and expect to be master of all. That could be a very expensive learning curve, as you have found out (but I don’t think are ready to admit).

[Zaphod]

That is a valid idea, but I can not let anyone else be responsible for my capital allocation decisions. The responsibility is mine alone, so I'll just learn and adapt. I think it was Seneca who said It takes the whole of life to learn how to live.

You should have learned that you should not be controlling your money. Would you have more money with a lame old 60/40 or with your style, if its less, you have to move on and do whats right.

If I ever start to under perform or do poorly vs the market I will switch to more market tracking unless I feel there is a huge opportunity, its crazy otherwise. In fact I keep an account solely as a benchmark to keep me in line.

[Tim]

You should have learned that you should not be controlling your money. Would you have more money with a lame old 60/40 or with your style, if its less, you have to move on and do whats right.

If I ever start to under perform or do poorly vs the market I will switch to more market tracking unless I feel there is a huge opportunity, its crazy otherwise. In fact I keep an account solely as a benchmark to keep me in line.

Conceptually this makes sense. Practically speaking, when you say "if ever start to under perform or do poorly vs the market", define the time frame and the metric is the trick. If you care, define your benchmark and the period of time and how you define your risk tolerance. Not a challenge, curious.

[Zaphod]

Conceptually this makes sense. Practically speaking, when you say "if ever start to under perform or do poorly vs the market", define the time frame and the metric is the trick. If you care, define your benchmark and the period of time and how you define your risk tolerance. Not a challenge, curious.

Its all fluid. Benchmarks are SP, NQ, and my wifes static account. I dont want to be underperforming for long at all, if its more than a couple of quarters I have to readjust whatever it is I thought was happening that isnt. And if I dont have a clue, I will simply move to market weighted until I do.

My risk tolerance is through the roof yet paper handed for the great majority of the people on this forum.

[Hoopoe]

I am a reformed market timer and it took into my late 30s and an expensive mistake to realize that I'm not as smart as I thought I was. Putting most of my money into AAPL since college when I saw the ipod everywhere gave me some pretty solid returns and some overconfidence. I thought I saw COVID coming and sold most of my pre tax accounts. I missed most of the drop and had an amazing opportunity to buy back in but didn't, figuring that the real COVID wave over winter 2020 would be brutal. Medically speaking it was, but the market pushed higher and I was really bummed, checking the news all the time and perseverating on the mistake. I ended up 2020 at around -5% and got back in to index funds. I'm never doing that again. Don't be me.

Good news, at least I learned and was all invested since Christmas or so, and am up 14% or so year to date and still on track for an early retirement. I'm also super glad that my fear of capital gains taxes kept me from selling in the taxable account.