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  • Originally posted by G View Post

    Interesting pivot and change of tone from your first post on this thread. I am not clear if you have done the basic financial education, but whatever. Have fun. What could possibly go wrong with putting half of your money in tech now that we are at the start of a "young bull cycle?"
    Could we be witnessing the Dunning-Kruger effect in live and living color?

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    • Yeah -- not a new bull cycle IMHO. More like a continued unrealistic bull run that's extended since 2007 despite a pandemic and ignoring economic facts that we've spent $3Trillion dollars while clipping our economy 15%+ and dulling our future generation's education.

      System gotta give somewhere.

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      • Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

        Great link thanks! I do buy into the concept of targeting tech/biotechnology sectors in a basket like this to reduce the risk but the growth of AUM is very disturbing.... perhaps I'll be late to that party too 😔

        And thats the point; there's always a difference of opinion. We're in a young bull cycle which history suggests will run for at least a few yrs, perhaps 10 more. We're in a period of massive fiscal stimulus propping up equities, which has to be repaid at some point. Baby boomers are retiring in huge numbers, forced to withdraw on their portfolios which should flatten returns.

        Where any of this will leave us by 2030 is anyone's guess 🤷‍♂️ I don't see ARK and Indexing returns as the difference between growth or loss over that period but do think the rate of growth or loss will be different. I'm gonna put 50% of my shovel to each and report back in 10 years 🙂
        So before we were going to be Japan and now we’re in a young bull ? I think you need to do a bit of learning or get an advisor, otherwise you’re going to make a very costly mistake

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        • Originally posted by Panscan View Post

          So before we were going to be Japan and now we’re in a young bull ? I think you need to do a bit of learning or get an advisor, otherwise you’re going to make a very costly mistake
          It depends what's considered a costly mistake:
          For example I (just) save 15K a month over the next 10 yrs. Leaving inflation aside, that alone would double my NW by mid fifties to around 4M (thats a useful FIRE number with potential for another 10 yrs in full or pt employment). If I index and it works its historical 7% magic the 4M would be closer to 5M, prob cut back or FIRE a few yrs earlier (not gonna result in a different lifestyle). Let's say I go the aggressive ETF route and score 14% annualized gains, now I've 6M (now I'm buying homes for kids). But maybe that doesn't happen and I lose 50% principal so enter 2030 with NW of 3M (still not too shabby).
          So it's my belief that it's my savings rate driving my retirement plans way more than (limited) IRA contributions with the potential to change the slope for better or worse with what an advisor suggests I do during the next 10 years.

          Loud and clear: I'm gonna find an FA to discuss all this with 🙏🙂

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

            It depends what's considered a costly mistake:
            For example I (just) save 15K a month over the next 10 yrs. Leaving inflation aside, that alone would double my NW by mid fifties to around 4M (thats a useful FIRE number with potential for another 10 yrs in full or pt employment). If I index and it works its historical 7% magic the 4M would be closer to 5M, prob cut back or FIRE a few yrs earlier (not gonna result in a different lifestyle). Let's say I go the aggressive ETF route and score 14% annualized gains, now I've 6M (now I'm buying homes for kids). But maybe that doesn't happen and I lose 50% principal so enter 2030 with NW of 3M (still not too shabby).
            So it's my belief that it's my savings rate driving my retirement plans way more than (limited) IRA contributions with the potential to change the slope for better or worse with what an advisor suggests I do during the next 10 years.

            Loud and clear: I'm gonna find an FA to discuss all this with 🙏🙂
            Sure, if you invest 15k/monthly for 10 years in some reasonable manner *and leave it alone regardless of which way the market goes* you will most likely do ok. But you already said you lost 10k in Bitcoin which means that you *may* have a propensity for freaking out and selling when things drop...in which case you almost certainly won’t do okay. Unless you can grow some...fortitude...yourself, a FA might be helpful to prevent those mistakes.

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            • Originally posted by Anne View Post

              Sure, if you invest 15k/monthly for 10 years in some reasonable manner *and leave it alone regardless of which way the market goes* you will most likely do ok. But you already said you lost 10k in Bitcoin which means that you *may* have a propensity for freaking out and selling when things drop...in which case you almost certainly won’t do okay. Unless you can grow some...fortitude...yourself, a FA might be helpful to prevent those mistakes.
              On the bitcoin question. It was just a little fun: BTC was already well into its first run when I decided to buy 15K in alt coins (I was inspired by the contracts functionality of ETH and took positions on a few others as well). Those peaked at 22K before all the coins collapsed. At some point I decided to consolidate what was then 2K across 5 alt coins into BTC. So that was my small play in crypto which even at current price is still down ~50%.

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              • Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

                OP here again.
                thanks all for the specific advice. I'm still lististening!

                3 points standing out:

                1. Invest in equities; not individual stocks but indexes (= diversity/spread)
                2. Time in the market (not timing the market)
                3. Take more risks (given zero debt, age and shovel size)

                So with those in mind I'm thinking whole market indexes aren't risky/juicy enough. What do people think about focused ETF portfolios (like ARK)?
                Agree with 1 and 2.

                With regards to 3, I would qualify raking risk as not sitting on cash but investing it in the market. I am also a believer that if you can leave it untouched for 20+ years, then even a 100% index stock portion will do well and give better overall returns. Whether you can do that is the bigger question.

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