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  • #46
    Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

    Thanks and I'm listening!

    It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
    Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's πŸ‘Œ
    What happened in Japan really has no bearing on the US market and I get so weary of ppl bringing up Japan. Totally different circumstances and you are deceiving yourself if you use that as an excuse to feel better.
    Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

      Thanks and I'm listening!

      It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
      Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's πŸ‘Œ
      the people living in japan wouldve done just fine with a 3 fund portfolio during that time. It was shown on one of POFs sunday best a few months ago.. https://www.gocurrycracker.com/lesso...-lost-decades/

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      • #48
        Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post

        If you are dead set against hiring a fee-only financial planner, at least put out forty bucks for the most recent version of Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth (ignoring the AUM examples).

        We have no idea what the market will do from month to month or from year to year, but we have a very good idea of what it will do over the long term. You are correct that you have missed some tremendous opportunities, but it could be much, much worse - please don’t beat yourself up. You did the best you knew with the tools at hand and you stuck to your plan, albeit rudimentary. Good move to ask for advice here.
        Forty bucks for a book? A book on building wealth? Something ironic about this.

        Get it at the library.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by billy View Post

          or have less NW bc they are trying to keep up with the joneses. Or made to feel bad about not having the kids in "the best" private schools, after school programs, etc.

          For example, I own a 6 year old car with only 50,000 miles on it (I have a short commute). In the past 6 months I've had at least 5 co workers ask me when I'm getting a new car because they "need to buy every 5 years, bc the car gets too old". These are the same people that make almost twice as much as me with (once house is taken out of the equation) less NW than me.
          These are important points, and for sure we're outliers in our community. No private schools for our kids, no nannies (yes most have at least 2), no landscapers, pool, country clubs for us.
          We spent on great vacations (pre covid) and value family time together over material things.
          A reason why I say we won is that we'll sell our RE once the kids are in college and buy a simple condo for 300K in a LCOL area, then live comfortably on whatever we have added over the next 10 yrs.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

            Thanks and I'm listening!

            It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
            Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's πŸ‘Œ
            But you don't live in Japan.

            I just don't understand why you think the worst market conditions in the history of the US are going to happen when you magically put your money in. While what you did in paying off your mortgages was an ok decision, it also effectively lit millions of dollars on fire that could have been yours with simple indexing over that time with a portion of the money. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but it's hard to understand why you are so adverse to the market.

            Maybe RE investing is a good thing to continue to explore given your stock reluctance but I also think you should look at US historical trends and see how what you're talking about has never happened in the US before. So you're effectively planning for something that has never happened, to happen.

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            • #51
              Originally posted by billy View Post
              theres an ignore function?
              yeah, in your settings. it makes it kind of awkward sometimes to follow the thread, but on the other hand you already know the gist:

              OP: I have a stack of money to invest.
              Individual: I have good success in focused equities except for when I have good success in fixed income, not counting for the fact that I am all cash for the next opportunity to use my dry powder.
              A lot of others: This is demonstrably crazy for XYZ
              Individual: You are small-minded simpletons and know nothing of the real world.
              Others: Actually, I'm FI at 46, am a partner in a couple businesses, own a couple other businesses, have real estate, alternatives, dabble in focused equities, and use fixed income...but still think that index funds are the way to go in this scenario.
              Individual: You are dooming him to a lifetime of mediocrity.
              etc etc

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Panscan View Post

                30M isn't Warren though

                (sarcasm)
                $30M at retirement and simply continuing 12% returns on that money alone for another 25 years to OP's mid-90's would be $500M.

                That would hardly create intergenerational wealth compared to the trillions EMD will have with annualized 30% returns for 50 years.

                The 4-comma club, so to speak

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                • #53
                  Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

                  Thanks and I'm listening!

                  It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
                  Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's πŸ‘Œ

                  I am curious. What really you want us to say? Invest in this hot stock that will give you a 600% return? Bringing Japan's experience from the 80's and 90's has no relevance.

                  You regret not investing in stocks from 2008-2020 and now you want to somehow make up for it with quick wealth. Ain't going to happen. Just take a slow and steady approach and you will hit true FI sooner than you think ( selling RE and moving to LCOL might or might not happen).

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

                    Thanks and I'm listening!

                    It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
                    Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's πŸ‘Œ
                    I think you should look into an advisor. Ignoring your poor comparison of Japanese stock markets, there are a lot of ways to invest in reasonable-cost indexes and broader funds outside of simply total US stock market, total world, S&P 500, etc, without buying individual stocks. You can invest in a Nasdaq 100 ETF/IF for example, that would increase you exposure to the companies that make it up, without the risk of one single company. There are plenty of "aggressive growth" ETFs out there that also spread your risk across hundreds of companies.

                    I'm not necessarily advocating these things over VT or VTI (which are great obviously), but you strike me as someone who, despite seemingly being very conservative, may have serious FOMO and therefore may chase returns with bitcoin or leveraged ETFs or angel investing in start-ups. And those are likely a bad idea for most everyone, including you. So if you need more risk/reward than a total stock market index fund, there are ways to do it without being reckless.

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                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

                      Thanks! I'm definitely a control freak which is why I prefer my assets to be tangible (rentals). I do have $5K in BTC (which cost me $15K πŸ˜† so much for taking more risks). That was inspired by a friend who put $30K in 12 years ago (he's comfortable retired now obviously). Seeing what happened to DASH and ARBNB IPOs I feel like regular investors are shut out from sensible entries.. I did make money on TSLA this year, but caught only a fraction of its epic run.
                      I'm trying to take risks but have a terrible track record of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈ
                      I'll shovel into indexes for now. Watch me ruin those for everyone πŸ™ƒ
                      Yeah, that's great that you're diversifying. Sure, indexing makes sense for a portion of your portfolio, but since you obviously also like other investments (RE), it's also a good idea to allocate a fixed percentage to whatever else you want, to pursue alpha. If you are interested in crypto and want to take a speculative risk, you can DM me if you want my complete thoughts on the field, and the innovation going on this year and into 2021.

                      (Also, how can your BTC investment be underwater? The price is reaching all time highs every day over the past month... take another look!). If you don't want to gamble with crypto, sell right now at ATH. I would not, but that's an option you certainly have.

                      Private investments have their pros and cons, but lead to exponential returns (due to increased risk of failure). Only invest in the field/sector that you have some knowledge in, if going this route. Btw, SEC is changing rules re: direct listings, accredited investors. This is a great thing IMO and will allow more retail ppl to access both the private markets as well as the IPO listing itself.

                      If you are going to only index, then consider putting a small slice of your entire portion to some riskier active and passive ETF sectors (QQQ, ARKK) to juice your potential returns. This is not investment advice, but just some things to consider.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by abds View Post

                        I know I should't give in but I can't help myself. In the OP's situation, starting where they are and saving 15k a month at the measly 12% return you mention, results in $30M at retirement age. Get a grip on reality.
                        No, you should be as open minded as I am to different ideas. Inclusion>exclusion.

                        Here's a little bit of the reality at market returns for docs, in the form of real collected data:

                        Medscape Physician Debt and Net Worth Report 2020

                        Mid-career, I'd have to do very, very poorly at this point to be stuck at $30M NW at retirement, as a PCP for that matter...and I don't even do individual stock risk. Like OP, I too focus on paying off any debt at lightning speed (to minimize sharing my income with the banks in the form of interest), then let the resulting cash flow do it's magic with only high quality investments. He's in a good position to take advantage of something better.

                        I know that being challenged to do better is difficult, and most here admittedly state they want boring and easy. However, in bringing in a relevant discussion of another thread - the benefits of trickle down - you can't get the trickle down of high tech's performance if you mix it in with the failures of big oil, doomed retailers, etc. That's why most don't see trickle down as working - it takes some work and is not boring/easy. But if you focused your funds on companies like APPL, ORLY, COST, MSFT, AMZN, UHG over the years and decades trickle down income has worked very, very well for you, well beyond the 12% of mingling good with bad investments. That's why I've been vocally supporting investments in tech, healthcare and consumer discretionary for years now. Was I wrong back then?

                        Reality is, my returns this year would only have been a third of what they are had I stuck to traditional indexing. Not just 2020. That is indeed my reality year after year after year. Why so afraid of a challenge? Have my holdings done so poorly this year? I took this challenge and it led me to trade out my underperforming traditional index funds AND some SECTOR funds over the years. It's therefore most important to me that I accept my challenge for betterment. Hopefully other future entrepreneurs take advantage too. Actually I know they are when they PM/follow me. We don't want to underperform teachers. We do our own thing very, very well and that translates to success in multiple aspects of life beyond finances.

                        REALITY

                        YTD %:

                        VFIAX 16,68
                        VTSAX 19.93
                        AMZN 71.82
                        DXQLX 95.78
                        MSSMX 158.69
                        BTCUSD 522.15
                        TSLA 702.48

                        Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Yeah, we know that.
                        Last edited by EntrepreneurMD; 12-27-2020, 09:24 AM.

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by billy View Post
                          theres an ignore function?
                          No, just an ignorant one.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Lordosis View Post

                            Forty bucks for a book? A book on building wealth? Something ironic about this.

                            Get it at the library.
                            The book is $25. Shipping is ~$12, I think. It's worth its weight in gold and more, impo, just have to prevent one mistake. He self-publishes and doesn't go through Amazon or any other site. We give it to every FWM client and this is the only way some ever really understand the concept of long-term investing and doing so according to a plan. Much more than worth the cost. (Of course, we buy in quantity for less.)
                            Our passion is protecting clients and others from predatory and ignorant advisors. Fox & Co CPAs, Fox & Co Wealth Mgmt. 270-247-6087

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Medica8ed View Post

                              These are important points, and for sure we're outliers in our community. No private schools for our kids, no nannies (yes most have at least 2), no landscapers, pool, country clubs for us.
                              We spent on great vacations (pre covid) and value family time together over material things.
                              A reason why I say we won is that we'll sell our RE once the kids are in college and buy a simple condo for 300K in a LCOL area, then live comfortably on whatever we have added over the next 10 yrs.
                              OP.... I do believe it's worth getting a neutral third party flat fee FA to listen to your goals and desires, assess your current state, and make sound advice based on those parameters.

                              You have gone as far as you can with your current plan on being debt free, but now wondering where to shovel your dollars. That's a good thing to be asking instead of simply increasing spend.

                              you point to Japan. Yes, we CaN be at risk of that with the low interest rates and willingness to do quantitative easing for extended periods of time. You may actually be interested in direct RE further of other RE based options but that has its own inherent risks and already heavy bet on it with your current primary asset paid off.

                              It's about balance and spreading risk around so you can sleep at night. Isn't that the reason your paid off your mortgage as the primary?

                              Get an advisor and do a sit-down. It's worth the time and worthy of opening options before you dig your heels in and do mattress stuffing as your primary retire

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by jfoxcpacfp View Post

                                The book is $25. Shipping is ~$12, I think. It's worth its weight in gold and more, impo, just have to prevent one mistake. He self-publishes and doesn't go through Amazon or any other site. We give it to every FWM client and this is the only way some ever really understand the concept of long-term investing and doing so according to a plan. Much more than worth the cost. (Of course, we buy in quantity for less.)
                                The guy should ship via USPS media since it's a book. 12$ is crazy high and shipping via priority mail

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