Won the game. Now what!?

[Tangler]

Why are you so convinced the market will lose money over the next 10 years? How many times has that happened in american history?

Yes. The total stock market index has few 10 year losing periods. It is a sound 15-30 year investment.

This other crap people have recommended for you: single stocks (uncompensated risk), cryptocurrency (speculative at best), IPOs, etc is foolishness on steroids, IMO. (and WCI agrees by the way).

[MPMD]

Don't kid yourselves. 11-12% annualized long term return effectively eliminates your chance at any upward mobility or substantial RE efforts. Nothing wrong with a strategy with which at least a sizeable portion of your portfolio does 30, 50, 100% annualized. What I personally strive for is to make those types of returns consistent over the years and decades, not a one time windfall. That is key over a lifetime and well into retirement, even more so if multi-generational effort.

please not again.

[MPMD]

OP you are 45, you have a 20 year time horizon minimum.

Start getting into the market.

I agree you need a good FA.

Pull up a chart of the SP500 the last 4-5 years and then look for headlines from these days where it was shooting up. If the last 4 years haven't taught you not to time the market then you really need to pay someone to help you not do it.

[fatlittlepig]

please not again.

U haven’t added that desperate troll to ignore list yet?

[billy]

theres an ignore function?

[Kamban]

Thanks! I'm definitely a control freak which is why I prefer my assets to be tangible (rentals). I do have $5K in BTC (which cost me $15K 😆 so much for taking more risks). That was inspired by a friend who put $30K in 12 years ago (he's comfortable retired now obviously). Seeing what happened to DASH and ARBNB IPOs I feel like regular investors are shut out from sensible entries.. I did make money on TSLA this year, but caught only a fraction of its epic run.
I'm trying to take risks but have a terrible track record of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time 🤷♂️
I'll shovel into indexes for now. Watch me ruin those for everyone 🙃

You are trying to make up for the ultra conservative approach of the past decade by swinging the other way and buying individual risky stocks and pure speculative stocks. Don't.

If you want to scratch that itch keep aside a certain percentage . Say 5 or 10%. Use that to buy the Tesla or Bitcoin or Quantumscape or whatever. Just put the rest in a 3 fund portfolio for 20 years. Predominantly in stock index fund. And don't try to keep checking it often or taking it out when the market is down.

You don't need a financial advisor. You just need a plan and stick to it. And I would not get any more RE.

BTW, I too paid off my first mortgage in 2004 within a year and built my current expensive house with cash. I too like to be risk free. But then I also invest in stock portfolios.

[IlliniGopher]

My observation of people that live in VHCOL or HCOL areas. This is a blanket statement so as with all generalities, you can find exceptions.

I find that many of my friends that live in these areas who are doing ok, think that they are killing it because inevitably they have peers in those areas deep in the red. I know my brother in SoCal is doing well but when I am his age my trajectory is to have at least 2-3x his NW.

[abds]

Don't kid yourselves. 11-12% annualized long term return effectively eliminates your chance at any upward mobility or substantial RE efforts. Nothing wrong with a strategy with which at least a sizeable portion of your portfolio does 30, 50, 100% annualized. What I personally strive for is to make those types of returns consistent over the years and decades, not a one time windfall. That is key over a lifetime and well into retirement, even more so if multi-generational effort.

I know I should't give in but I can't help myself. In the OP's situation, starting where they are and saving 15k a month at the measly 12% return you mention, results in $30M at retirement age. Get a grip on reality.

[billy]

My observation of people that live in VHCOL or HCOL areas. This is a blanket statement so as with all generalities, you can find exceptions.

I find that many of my friends that live in these areas who are doing ok, think that they are killing it because inevitably they have peers in those areas deep in the red. I know my brother in SoCal is doing well but when I am his age my trajectory is to have at least 2-3x his NW.

or have less NW bc they are trying to keep up with the joneses. Or made to feel bad about not having the kids in "the best" private schools, after school programs, etc.

For example, I own a 6 year old car with only 50,000 miles on it (I have a short commute). In the past 6 months I've had at least 5 co workers ask me when I'm getting a new car because they "need to buy every 5 years, bc the car gets too old". These are the same people that make almost twice as much as me with (once house is taken out of the equation) less NW than me.

[jfoxcpacfp]

U belong to the 1% of physicians who need a financial advisor.

Agree they need one, disagree that only 1% of physicians need one. Of the physicians who do not frequent the doc finance blogs (which is by far the higher %), I’d go so far as to say it’s the opposite.

[IlliniGopher]

or have less NW bc they are trying to keep up with the joneses. Or made to feel bad about not having the kids in "the best" private schools, after school programs, etc.

For example, I own a 6 year old car with only 50,000 miles on it (I have a short commute). In the past 6 months I've had at least 5 co workers ask me when I'm getting a new car because they "need to buy every 5 years, bc the car gets too old". These are the same people that make almost twice as much as me with (once house is taken out of the equation) less NW than me.

Bingo. That too. It's the same people that think they're killing it egging each other on too.

[Anne]

I’m not anti-real estate, but 4% net return is kinda crummy. It is probably a decent home to live in but not a good rental to be invested in. If you want to stay in real estate I would start looking into a 1031 exchange into something more profitable.

[jfoxcpacfp]

2 docs (43,45) 2 kids (9,11) VHCOL area. Gross income 620K.

My wife and I were both from very poor families and didn't get started on our wealth journey till our 30's due to educations. As a result we're really conservative investors and decided 5 years back to prioritize paying off our mortgages with the idea that we wanted to be financially stable on 1 income.
With hindsight this decision was completely wrong given the markets (inexplicable) rise, but here we are, free and clear with 1Mil primary, a 500K rental (4% net), 200K in retirement 50K cash and 110K in brokerage.

Now with everything paid and retirement max'ed we still have 15K a month spare. We're wondering how to invest wisely for kiddos colleges. With current valuations, half the country prevented from working, and the endless printing for COVID stimulus we're convinced we'll lose money in the markets over the next 10 years

So acknowledging we've been wrong all this time, and could've got here sooner, any advice for not screwing up the next 5 years allocations very much appreciated 👍

If you are dead set against hiring a fee-only financial planner, at least put out forty bucks for the most recent version of Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth (ignoring the AUM examples).

We have no idea what the market will do from month to month or from year to year, but we have a very good idea of what it will do over the long term. You are correct that you have missed some tremendous opportunities, but it could be much, much worse - please don’t beat yourself up. You did the best you knew with the tools at hand and you stuck to your plan, albeit rudimentary. Good move to ask for advice here.

[Panscan]

I know I should't give in but I can't help myself. In the OP's situation, starting where they are and saving 15k a month at the measly 12% return you mention, results in $30M at retirement age. Get a grip on reality.

30M isn't Warren though

(sarcasm)

[Medica8ed]

If you are dead set against hiring a fee-only financial planner, at least put out forty bucks for the most recent version of Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth (ignoring the AUM examples).

Good move to ask for advice here.

Thanks and I'm listening!

It's hard to explain our history on a forum like this. There was no private schools or parent parachutes to fall back on for us. Every cent was hard won and that still holds us back today. I read a lot and as others have pointed there's no lack of advice, but most of it falls into a do *this* for 20+ years plan, which consumes our lifetime if wrong. US Indexes have worked but if we had chosen to live in Japan (Nikkei 225 Index) then the last 30 years did not fulfill the promise for those folks.
Indexing is a good way to limit downside risk, but also neuters potential gains, but at our saving rate that's 👌