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Housing market? What will happen in the next year?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

    I think it's too difficult to compare housing prices across the world. It's difficult just trying to compare housing prices within the same state.
    Youre probably right...in some ways Im just pessimistic since I saw my desired HCOL area STILL increase 50% during COVID. We need to Whip Inflation Now...

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    • #17
      Originally posted by triad View Post
      lack of housing supply seems like it will be an ongoing issue that will keep prices higher
      wow, we have the first decrease in price in years. i guess rates are restrictive, hopefully we can end the tightening soon
      https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...-and-fhfa.html

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      • #18
        Originally posted by triad View Post

        wow, we have the first decrease in price in years. i guess rates are restrictive, hopefully we can end the tightening soon
        https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...-and-fhfa.html
        Bill McBride’s blog is a fantastic blog for the housing markets especially. Macro views, not local.

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        • #19
          See lots of “reduced” list prices on vacation homes on / near beaches in my area.

          For me, seems like a good time to:
          1. wait and see what happens to housing market
          2. buy stock index funds on sale
          3. build up cash (for eventual large down payment)
          4. Work extra to facilitate 2 & 3

          2 & 3 obviously conflict with each other. Leaning more towards doing 2.

          Interesting times. Lucky to be able to work extra.

          Next 6-18 months will be interesting to watch.

          I think those vacation home prices are going to drop.

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          • #20
            “I think those vacation home prices are going to drop.”
            •rising interest rates- Fed absolutely no sign of intent to cease increases
            •inflation - it is not a good sign that inflation “stabilizes at high rates
            • stock market - no signs of capitulation. More to go until actual pain and capitulation occurs
            •strong potential of recession - forget the NBER.
            small and large businesses are struggling. The labor participation rates took off in the 60’s. For a strong economy and growth, need to add 5% available workers that have dropped out.
            https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART#

            And you will see “small” job cuts. Most employers go to great lengths to avoid “layoffs”. Bad for business and morale. Seasonal hiring is already cut.

            Discretionary vacation homes are the first luxury item to go or be postponed.

            FOMO is now FOGS. Fear of getting screwed.
            Demand down, supply up. What could go wrong?

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            • #21
              Originally posted by nephron View Post
              Housing prices will stabilize/begin to rise again. There remains a large gap behind supply and demand, they have not built enough houses to keep up with the number of people who will want to own their homes in the near future. The price increase over the past several years was because they stopped building houses early in the pandemic/laid off all of their workers and the supply chains (lumbar) all became dysfunctional. Builders are only building higher end homes now with larger profit margins which will cause home prices to continue to rise (only a limited number of "starter" homes). The number of people who moved out of the cities and are not planning on moving back will continue to drive prices up. I would predict city apartment prices will be in a downward spiral as people who moved out won't want to move back and people who did not live in cities will not want to move into cities as tax revenues decrease causing services to decrease. I think there is a lot of this going on in New York city now with businesses dependent on pedestrian traffic beginning to close.

              Price increase was a combo of decreased supply, fiscal stimulus/wealth effect and insanely low rates. Nothing more.

              Literally all reversed, prices have to come down either real or nominal, likely both. Said this earlier this year, and its already happening.

              None of what you mention matters if its unaffordable, which it is.

              There may not be a ton of supply, but that just makes the market very unhealthy all around.

              Buying from builders more willing and less anchored may be the bet rather than existing which is likely to be much more rando/forced sells.

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              • #22
                Almost 80 percent of listings in my area have been reduced. But still everyone is trying to list at crazy prices. So the decrease doesn’t mean much
                . As the rates inch higher , I read close to 6.5 today, it should make a difference
                So, yes, next 1 year would be interesting

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by uksho View Post
                  Almost 80 percent of listings in my area have been reduced. But still everyone is trying to list at crazy prices. So the decrease doesn’t mean much
                  . As the rates inch higher , I read close to 6.5 today, it should make a difference
                  So, yes, next 1 year would be interesting
                  Yep. I wonder when the last time was that interest rates more than doubled in about 1 year?
                  Seems like it should change something.

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                  • #24
                    I am putting my house on the market in the coming months, spring at latest. Actively looking at new houses in another area. On the topic of locality, I am guardedly optimistic as there has been no drop yet in my current area (NYC HCOL suburbs) where there is minimal inventory, and many buyers with high incomes. Whereas my target location has already seen decreases. My assumption is that even if my home value drops, its value will likely hold better than the target market. Of course, I could be wrong.
                    My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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                    • #25
                      Click image for larger version

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ID:	355703​saw this on social media

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Lithium View Post
                        Click image for larger version

Name:	image.png
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ID:	355703​saw this on social media
                        I wonder what the outliers are because there’s some red counties in middle America that don’t make sense. A few have large lakes so I assume the lake houses are raising everything but some have practically nothing.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by CordMcNally View Post

                          I wonder what the outliers are because there’s some red counties in middle America that don’t make sense. A few have large lakes so I assume the lake houses are raising everything but some have practically nothing.
                          Another thing is that it isn’t purely an illustration of home values. It shows home values divided by income, so the places that are really red could be because of high RE values or a lower denominator (lower household income relative to home values). I wonder if some of the stranger parts of the graph (like all the red counties in Appalachia) are because a bunch of wealthy people bought second homes in the Hillbilly Elegy parts of America. If you are looking for an income tax free state, it is interesting how expensive most of Tennessee, Nevada, Washington and New Hampshire are though it looks like you can still find value in the sticks of Texas.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Lithium View Post

                            Another thing is that it isn’t purely an illustration of home values. It shows home values divided by income, so the places that are really red could be because of high RE values or a lower denominator (lower household income relative to home values). I wonder if some of the stranger parts of the graph (like all the red counties in Appalachia) are because a bunch of wealthy people bought second homes in the Hillbilly Elegy parts of America. If you are looking for an income tax free state, it is interesting how expensive most of Tennessee, Nevada, Washington and New Hampshire are though it looks like you can still find value in the sticks of Texas.
                            https://txcip.org/tac/census/data_mappage.php?MORE=1013

                            I'll let you overlay Texas.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Antares View Post
                              I am putting my house on the market in the coming months, spring at latest. Actively looking at new houses in another area. On the topic of locality, I am guardedly optimistic as there has been no drop yet in my current area (NYC HCOL suburbs) where there is minimal inventory, and many buyers with high incomes. Whereas my target location has already seen decreases. My assumption is that even if my home value drops, its value will likely hold better than the target market. Of course, I could be wrong.
                              That would be sweet. Hopefully that is how it plays out.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by StateOfMyHead View Post

                                That would be sweet. Hopefully that is how it plays out.
                                Thank you for that!
                                My Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFF...MwBiAAKd5N8qPg

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