Discuss Latest WCI Blog Post: Your Crystal Ball Predictions for 2023

[The White Coat Investor]

Yes, their crystal balls might be cloudy, but that hasn't stopped several white coats from making their financial predictions for 2023.

The post Your Crystal Ball Predictions for 2023 appeared first on The White Coat Investor - Investing & Personal Finance for Doctors.



Click here to view the article!

[Yoshi Soto]

Fun, let me do a few:
- we will see at least another SPX leg down, likely finish the year flat to slightly down. More downside likely when market prices in the fed being serious about reaching a terminal rate above 5% this year and not dropping rates this year. QT likely to continue all year (and for a few more years if Waller’s comments from last Friday are to be taken seriously)
- inflation will remain sticky. The anticipated drops in CPI from owners equivalent rent will be counteracted by inflationary pressures from China reopening. We might see a few surprises to the upside on CPI in H2
- bitcoin will continue being rangebound below 30k for the year, bottom for this bear market likely in despite the bottom not being in yet in equities. Should see a ramp up in 2024 with another peak (I’m thinking around 120k) in 2025
- RE, traditionally lagging the market by 6-12 months, will continue to drop. Out of all investments this is likely the one you should not be going into at this time, guaranteed to have more downside at least H1
- govt will continue to issue debt, increased use of the fed discount window (doubt anyone will be able to sniff out who’s using it realistically, we’ll know in a couple years I guess), fed will limit use of the reverse repo facility to encourage money market funds to buy bonds to counteract effects of persistent QT and persistent issuance by the treasury

[Larry Ragman]

Fun, let me do a few:
- we will see at least another SPX leg down, likely finish the year flat to slightly down. More downside likely when market prices in the fed being serious about reaching a terminal rate above 5% this year and not dropping rates this year. QT likely to continue all year (and for a few more years if Waller’s comments from last Friday are to be taken seriously)
- inflation will remain sticky. The anticipated drops in CPI from owners equivalent rent will be counteracted by inflationary pressures from China reopening. We might see a few surprises to the upside on CPI in H2
- bitcoin will continue being rangebound below 30k for the year, bottom for this bear market likely in despite the bottom not being in yet in equities. Should see a ramp up in 2024 with another peak (I’m thinking around 120k) in 2025
- RE, traditionally lagging the market by 6-12 months, will continue to drop. Out of all investments this is likely the one you should not be going into at this time, guaranteed to have more downside at least H1
- govt will continue to issue debt, increased use of the fed discount window (doubt anyone will be able to sniff out who’s using it realistically, we’ll know in a couple years I guess), fed will limit use of the reverse repo facility to encourage money market funds to buy bonds to counteract effects of persistent QT and persistent issuance by the treasury

Yoshi Soto, I checked out your blog. Graphics are eye catching but more to the point I enjoyed your take on a few of the more sophisticated topics.

[Yoshi Soto]

Yoshi Soto, I checked out your blog. Graphics are eye catching but more to the point I enjoyed your take on a few of the more sophisticated topics.

Much appreciated, thank you!