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Discuss Latest WCI Blog Post: Your Crystal Ball Predictions for 2022

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  • Discuss Latest WCI Blog Post: Your Crystal Ball Predictions for 2022

    Yes, their crystal balls might be cloudy, but that hasn't stopped several white coats from making their financial predictions for 2022.

    The post Your Crystal Ball Predictions for 2022 appeared first on The White Coat Investor - Investing & Personal Finance for Doctors.



    Click here to view the article!
    Helping those who wear the white coat get a fair shake on Wall Street since 2011

  • #2
    the funny thing about predictions is that they are almost always more pessimistic than reality turns out to be.

    what's that quote about how much money has been lost chasing returns? i bet the next money loser is fear of losing principal.

    whatever happens the WCI strategy is going to be the best hedge, not gold or BTC.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by MPMD View Post
      the funny thing about predictions is that they are almost always more pessimistic than reality turns out to be.

      what's that quote about how much money has been lost chasing returns? i bet the next money loser is fear of losing principal.

      whatever happens the WCI strategy is going to be the best hedge, not gold or BTC.
      Yes.
      https://www.businessinsider.in/polic...w/88626950.cms

      2021 +27.2%
      2020 +16.3%

      My prediction is + or - 27.2% to 16.3% based on the most recent trends.
      For those that want precision, +/- 21.75% (the average of the two years).

      Note: markets can go up or down, so I added the +/-. Very, very sophisticated. Just as accurate as the "smart money" on Wall Street below.
      https://investorplace.com/2021/12/st...r-predictions/

      Forecasts are for entertainment only.


      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by MPMD View Post
        the funny thing about predictions is that they are almost always more pessimistic than reality turns out to be.

        what's that quote about how much money has been lost chasing returns? i bet the next money loser is fear of losing principal.

        whatever happens the WCI strategy is going to be the best hedge, not gold or BTC.
        exactly. world is always on fire with market about to crash.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Panscan View Post

          exactly. world is always on fire with market about to crash.
          not only that but as troubling as it would be to live through, for the under 65 crowd a huge market crash next few years would be probably one of the biggest builders of our personal wealth in our lives.

          always love to tell the tale of some friends of mine who had a big pile of cash for a home addition in early 2020, they put it into the market when the dow hit 18 in April '20 and took out a 2.9% loan for the home addition.

          you want to talk about leverage...

          be scared when others are confident and confident when others are scared.

          i know this is a little bit political but i think there is this entirely false sense of doldrums/stagnation right now. inflation is up, that's not great for sure. but otherwise we have domestic stability, people want to spend, supply chain stuff didn't really turn out to be the bugbear everyone said it was, etc etc. eventually covid is going to die down for real (?omicron --> massive herd immunity) and then i see absolutely no reason why the DJIA couldn't be at 45k by next Xmas.

          it's funny when you say things like that people are automatically so skeptical.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MPMD View Post

            be scared when others are confident and confident when others are scared.

            i know this is a little bit political but i think there is this entirely false sense of doldrums/stagnation right now. inflation is up, that's not great for sure. but otherwise we have domestic stability, people want to spend, supply chain stuff didn't really turn out to be the bugbear everyone said it was, etc etc. eventually covid is going to die down for real (?omicron --> massive herd immunity) and then i see absolutely no reason why the DJIA couldn't be at 45k by next Xmas.

            it's funny when you say things like that people are automatically so skeptical.

            the counter argument however is that fed needs to raise rates at some point, and who knows what happens to equities at that point. asset valuations are up which i view largely as a reflection of inflationary pressure more than anything.

            I do agree w your perspective of a market crash now would be good for long term wealth building.

            Comment


            • #7
              I read somewhere -- maybe Matt Levine on Bloomberg? He's the source of most of my funny comments about money -- that when a guy sends out a newsletter every day for ten years and every newsletter says "THE MARKET IS GOING TO CRASH", when the market finally crashes in year eleven, he'll be held up as a genius and be featured on talk shows for the next two decades as "the guy who predicted the market crash".

              I think about that quote every time someone tells me the market is going to crash.

              Comment


              • #8
                1. Big crash
                2. Pandemic actually starts, this has been the prodrome
                3. I clean up on real estate due to #1

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'm never hoping for a market crash, I don't care how long my investing horizon is. I'm not really looking forward to seeing 6 or 7 figures down the drain.

                  ​​​​​​​SPY up 15-20% 2022, calling it now. I'm hopped up on US market hopium.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by xraygoggles View Post
                    I'm never hoping for a market crash, I don't care how long my investing horizon is. I'm not really looking forward to seeing 6 or 7 figures down the drain.

                    SPY up 15-20% 2022, calling it now. I'm hopped up on US market hopium.
                    @RemindMe_OfThis on 1/1/2023

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      In 2021, small value finally beat the S&P 500. In 2022, I predict that total international will beat the S&P 500.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Last year no one here predicted > 20% returns in this poll.

                        https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...rns#post311429

                        I am always wrong. I think I am just going to stop predicting. IF pushed I would say we are due for a downturn (negative year) but I seem to say that every year, and every year I am wrong.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          1. S&P 500 up 12%
                          2. Real estate market starts to flatten out.
                          3. Covid deaths and admissions continue to drop through the year after omicron peaks in the next few weeks.
                          4. Republicans take control of the house and senate.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Tangler View Post
                            Last year no one here predicted > 20% returns in this poll.

                            https://forum.whitecoatinvestor.com/...rns#post311429

                            I am always wrong. I think I am just going to stop predicting. IF pushed I would say we are due for a downturn (negative year) but I seem to say that every year, and every year I am wrong.
                            dang, that is awesome to keep the receipts.

                            i think i said 15%

                            just goes to show you...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I bet the market is up by 15+% but 1/4 to 1/2 of it is inflation. Also, I bet people still want to insert crypto into nearly every discussion.

                              Comment

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